Elliott Backs Air Liquide's First-Ever Large Buyback and 2030 Margin Targets

Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. has entered a definitive agreement with PG Cold Energy 1 Sdn. Bhd. to design, build and operate Malaysia's first LNG-based air separation unit, located at the Pengerang LNG regasification terminal in Johor and expected to come online by early 2027. The facility will produce more than 600 tons per day of liquid oxygen, nitrogen and argon, supplying the merchant market and rising demand from the electrical and electronics, petrochemical, aerospace and manufacturing sectors. The unit will use cold energy generated during LNG regasification to liquefy air at low temperatures, cutting energy consumption and production-related emissions. The project reinforces Air Products' long-standing relationship with PETRONAS Gas Berhad and adds to its LNG-based air separation units in Asia, with operations in Malaysia dating back to 1974. APD shares have gained 5.8% in the past year against the industry's 0.3% decline in the same period.

Air Products and Chemicals is positioned to potentially beat earnings estimates again in its next quarterly report, according to Zacks Investment Research. The industrial gas supplier has topped estimates in each of its last two reports, with an average surprise of 4.10% over that span. In the most recent quarter, it reported $3.47 per share against a consensus estimate of $3.36, a surprise of 3.27%, after posting $3.2 per share versus an estimate of $3.05 in the prior quarter, a surprise of 4.92%. The company currently carries an Earnings ESP of +0.79% and a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy), a combination Zacks research shows produces a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time.

Air Liquide unveiled a new strategic plan through 2030 on Monday, targeting annual growth in recurring net earnings per share of about 10% and launching its first-ever share buyback program, worth €4 billion over 2027-2028. The plan, named BEYOND, aims for compound annual growth of 10%, plus or minus 2 percentage points, in recurring net EPS from the end of 2025 to the end of 2030, along with recurring return on capital employed above 11% in 2030. The French industrial gases group expects sales to grow at a compound annual rate of 5%, plus or minus 1 point, outpacing industrial production by a factor of two to three, and targets a cumulative operating margin improvement of 400 to 600 basis points over 2026-2030. Capital allocation of more than €40 billion over the period will cover investments, acquisitions, dividends and buybacks, with more than half going toward industrial investments and acquisitions and about €24 billion in industrial investment decisions planned. Air Liquide named four priority markets — electronics and artificial intelligence, energy transition, healthcare and space — and said it expects electronics sales to grow at a weighted average annual rate above 10% over 2026-2030. CEO François Jackow said the group's profitability now allows it to go beyond reinvestment, including through the buyback and annual employee share purchase plans, and the company reaffirmed a 33% cut in Scope 1 and 2 carbon dioxide emissions by 2035 from 2020 levels and carbon neutrality by 2050.