Jefferies flags critical mineral bottlenecks as electrification demand grows

Evolution Metals & Technologies Corp. raised its fiscal 2026 revenue guidance to $10 million to $11 million, up from the previous range of $5 million to $8 million issued on September 10, 2026, a 62% increase at the midpoint. The company also reaffirmed its fiscal 2027 revenue guidance of $400 million to $460 million, whose $430 million midpoint represents roughly 41 times the raised fiscal 2026 midpoint. The Miami-based critical materials and advanced manufacturing company said the raise reflects an expanded ex-China rare earth feedstock position, improved rare earth pricing and continued strong commercial demand. Thirteen additional ULVAC sintered magnet production machines are scheduled for delivery in October 2026 and will be installed immediately after delivery in Pohang, Republic of Korea, where they are expected to lift annual magnet production capacity above 10,000 metric tons, including approximately 6,000 metric tons of high-performance sintered magnets. Chief Executive Officer Frank Moon said the company will showcase what it believes is the largest commercial magnet facility in the world, ex-China, on December 17, 2026, and President Andrew Knaggs pointed to DFARS 252.225-7052, which is expected to extend the mine-to-magnet restriction across the entire neodymium-iron-boron magnet supply chain beginning January 1, 2027.

MP Materials is accelerating its push to build a fully integrated U.S. rare earth supply chain, reporting record NdPr production and progress toward heavy rare earth and magnet manufacturing. In 2025, its Mountain Pass operations delivered a record 2,599 metric tons of neodymium-praseodymium, more than double the 1,294 metric tons produced in 2024. First-quarter 2026 NdPr output hit a record 917 metric tons, up 63% year over year, and second-quarter production rose 41% year over year to 840 metric tons despite a scheduled semiannual maintenance outage; management expects third-quarter 2026 NdPr production to have exceeded 1,000 metric tons. The company remains on track to begin producing terbium and dysprosium later this year, with first samarium production targeted for 2028, and recently signed a multiyear agreement to supply gadolinium oxide to a leading U.S. aerospace and defense manufacturer. In December 2025, MP produced its first commercial-scale neodymium-iron-boron permanent magnets at its Independence facility in Fort Worth, Texas, and it has been delivering magnetic precursor products to General Motors under a supply agreement since the first quarter of 2025. As of June 30, 2026, MP had collected $150 million in required GM prepayments and delivered $104.5 million of precursor products, with the remaining $45.5 million expected within a year, after which it expects to shift to finished magnet sales; it delivered magnets to GM for in-vehicle qualification testing in the second quarter of 2026 and expects commercial shipments to begin in the fourth quarter of 2026. MP has begun construction of the 10X magnetics facility, which is expected to contribute to total production capacity of approximately 10,000 metric tons of NdFeB rare-earth magnets per year, and it has launched Project Swarm with U.S. and allied drone manufacturers while continuing its partnership with Apple on magnet recycling and production.

Medaro Mining Corp. announced results from a high-resolution, low-elevation drone magnetic survey completed across the central section of its Bastnäs Project in central Sweden as part of its 2026 exploration program. The survey identified multiple magnetic high structures correlating with historical iron ore mines, strongly defined magnetic high lineaments trending northeast-southwest across the project area, and a structural fabric overprint that breaks up those lineaments. Coverage gaps caused by terrain, environmental and operational constraints will be infilled during a Phase 2 drone magnetic survey planned for 2027. The geophysical data is being interpreted alongside the company's 2026 surface sampling results, which included 218 rock chip samples collected from new outcrops and historic workings, with previously reported results of up to 32.99% TREO, 16.5 grams per tonne gold and 23.7% copper. Medaro has identified six principal areas of interest from the combined geological, geochemical and geophysical results, and President and CEO Mark Carruthers said the survey has helped prioritize several areas for follow-up exploration and drilling. The Bastnäs Project comprises two mineral exploration permits, Bastnäs 100 and Bastnäs 200, held on trust by McKnight Resources AB, and one permit, Bäckegruvan nr 1, held on trust by Explora Mineral AB, all intended to be transferred 100% to Medaro pending regulatory approvals.

Canamera Energy Metals Corp. has received a three-year Exploration Permit from the Ontario Ministry of Energy and Mines for the Schryburt Lake Rare Earth Element-Niobium Project in northwestern Ontario and has signed a Community Benefit Agreement with Nibinamik First Nation, clearing the way for the project's first-ever diamond drill program to begin in mid-October 2026. The permit, effective from September 10, 2026 to September 9, 2029, authorizes a 19-hole diamond drilling program plus mechanized stripping and trenching, line cutting and geophysical surveys across 36 claims covering the core of the Schryburt Lake Carbonatite Complex. The initial phase, mobilizing October 16, 2026, comprises approximately 1,500 metres of helicopter-supported diamond drilling in three holes testing the Blue Jay, Starling and Blackbird targets, with a budget of approximately CAD $1.7 million. This is the first diamond drill program on the project and the first drilling of any kind since six shallow reconnaissance holes totalling 293 metres were completed in 1977. Expenditures under the program further the CAD $1.5 million First Option expenditure condition under the company's JV Option Agreement, through which Canamera may earn an initial 51% interest in the project, and up to a 90% interest through a three-stage earn-in requiring aggregate expenditures of CAD $9.0 million.

Each time China uses rare earths as a diplomatic card, momentum grows among Japan and the U.S. in particular to build supply chains that exclude China. According to the International Energy Agency, as of 2025 China accounts for 85% of global rare earth refining, but its share of refining rare earths for magnets has fallen from 91% in 2023 to roughly 85% in 2025, and if planned projects come to fruition it could drop to around 70% by 2035. In October 2025, President Trump and Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi signed a Japan-U.S. framework on the mining and processing of critical minerals and rare earths, setting out a policy of diversifying supply chains through a combination of loans, guarantees, insurance, long-term purchase contracts, stockpiling, recycling, and geological surveys. In April 2026, Prime Minister Takaichi launched the Partnership for Resilient Energy and Resource Supply Capacity in Asia, known as Power Asia, under which financial cooperation totals about 10 billion dollars, equivalent in crude oil and petroleum product procurement to as much as about 1.2 billion barrels, roughly one year's worth of ASEAN's crude oil imports. At the second Pax Silica Summit in June 2026, governments from 35 countries and regions including Japan joined a joint statement on the AI field, and connecting the two frameworks of Power Asia and Pax Silica under Japan's leadership has become a realistic policy concept.