Kasikornbank, or KBANK, expects the baht to move within a range of 32.70 to 33.30 baht per dollar in the week of September 14-17, 2026. Key factors to watch include the monetary policy meeting outcomes of the US Federal Reserve's FOMC, the Bank of England, or BOE, and the Bank of Japan, or BOJ, as well as foreign capital flows and the situation in the Middle East. The market must also monitor US August retail sales, China's August economic data such as new yuan-denominated lending, and August inflation figures for the UK, the eurozone and Japan. For last week's movements, from September 7-11, 2026, the baht weakened back past 33.00 baht per dollar after the baht and most Asian currencies strengthened early in the week in line with the yen, which was supported by expectations that the BOJ may raise interest rates at its September meeting, while the market also worried that Japanese authorities might intervene if the yen weakened too much. However, the baht gradually weakened over the rest of the week, pressured by higher global oil prices amid tensions in the Middle East, while the dollar strengthened after US August producer price index, or PPI, came in higher than the market expected, prompting investors to raise the odds that the Fed will hike rates at its FOMC meeting on September 15-16. At the same time, the dollar was also supported by rising US government bond yields amid inflationary pressures that could increase from oil prices, as well as the announcement of a US Treasury bond buyback plan with a smaller amount than the market expected. Nevertheless, rising global gold prices and a slowdown in trading ahead of the release of the US consumer price index, or CPI, helped slow the baht's depreciation somewhat late in the week.
Kasikornbank Public Company LimitedKBANK is the source of the baht forecast; no company-specific development affecting its business.
KBANK forecasts baht at 32.70-33.30/USD, with Fed, BOE, BOJ meetings and US PPI/CPI driving dollar strength.
