Krungsri: Higher Social Security Wage Ceiling to Boost BCH and CHG Profits in 2027

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Summary · why it matters

Krungsri Securities has issued an analysis of hospital sector stocks after the Social Security Board approved a gradual increase in the wage ceiling for insured persons under Section 33, from 15,000 baht to 17,500 baht in 2026, rising to 20,000 baht in 2029 and 23,000 baht in 2032. It views the increases during 2026-2028 as adding roughly 1,350 baht per insured person per year to the fund's revenue across four benefit cases. The research team estimates that the higher social security treatment payments will be an upside to the 2027 operating results of BCH and CHG under two assumptions. In the first case, only the per-head flat payment, or Basic Capitation, is raised by 10 percent, and with an assumed incremental margin of 80 percent, this would lift 2027 profits of BCH and CHG by about 11 percent and 9 percent respectively, with added value to the target price of about 0.60-0.70 baht for BCH and about 0.10-0.15 baht for CHG. In the second case, all three items are raised by 10 percent, namely Basic Capitation, IPD cases with an RW value greater than 2, and 26 chronic diseases, and with an assumed incremental margin of 70 percent, this would lift profits of BCH and CHG by about 13 percent and 11 percent respectively, higher than the first case because it covers a broader proportion of social security revenue, with added value to the target price of about 0.80-1.00 baht for BCH and about 0.15-0.20 baht for CHG. The research team maintains a bullish view on hospital sector stocks, selecting BDMS with a buy recommendation and a target price of 25 baht, and PR9 with a buy recommendation and a target price of 24 baht. BCH carries a buy recommendation with a target price of 12 baht and is seen as a standout among social security hospital stocks, given that profits have passed their trough and it stands to benefit greatly from the increase in social security treatment rates.

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Health Care▲
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