Merck Wins Japanese Approval for Subcutaneous KEYTRUDA QLEX

Pfizer is trading at roughly 9.6 times the midpoint of its 2026 adjusted diluted EPS guidance range of $2.80 to $3.00, a discount that reflects expected earnings decline rather than a straightforward bargain. The 2026 EPS midpoint sits below the $3.075 midpoint of Pfizer's 2025 guidance, and the company expects 2026 revenue of $59.5 billion to $62.5 billion against approximately $62 billion in 2025 guidance, with COVID-19 products falling to about $5 billion from approximately $6.5 billion and loss-of-exclusivity products creating another $1.5 billion revenue headwind. Excluding COVID products and products facing loss of exclusivity, Pfizer expects approximately 4% operational revenue growth at the midpoint, suggesting a business in transition rather than one losing its ability to grow. On the pipeline side, Pfizer reported Phase 2b data in June for berobenatide, its investigational monthly GLP-1 receptor agonist, showing almost 16% non-placebo-adjusted weight loss at 32 weeks at the 2.4 mg weekly dose, and plans 10 Phase 3 studies in 2026 within a program of more than 20 obesity trials, while also highlighting next-generation oncology programs including a PD-1/VEGF bispecific antibody, an antibody-drug conjugate and a next-generation CDK4 inhibitor at ASCO 2026. Pfizer also reached settlements with generic manufacturers extending VYNDAMAX's effective U.S. patent expiry to June 1, 2031, versus a previous expectation of significant U.S. revenue decline beginning in 2029, and now expects VYNDAMAX revenue to remain relatively stable from 2028 through mid-2031, subject to other litigation, with 2026 adjusted R&D spending guided to $10.5 billion to $11.5 billion.

Moderna's fair value estimate has been lifted from US$119.56 to US$122.67 per share, according to updated modelling tied to analyst revisions on its intismeran cancer vaccine program. The change follows Phase 3 INTerpath-001 melanoma data that prompted target lifts or upgrades from BofA, Goldman Sachs, UBS, Barclays, RBC Capital and Morgan Stanley, with BofA setting a US$200 target and a Neutral rating and calling the readout a watershed moment for Moderna. William Blair moved to Outperform and Wolfe Research called the melanoma result de-risking for the broader intismeran platform, while RBC Capital described the data as a massive scientific breakthrough. On the bearish side, Citi and Rothschild & Co Redburn moved to Sell even as they raised targets to US$80 and US$81 respectively, citing questions on oncology revenue expectations and limited disclosure around efficacy metrics such as hazard ratios. The updated model also shifted the revenue growth assumption from 26.74% to 26.75%, the net profit margin from 17.25% to 17.20%, the future P/E from 80.90x to 83.10x, and the discount rate from 7.50% to 7.46%.