Tisco Securities estimates that Thai Vegetable Oil Public Company Limited, or TVO, has passed its peak in the second quarter of 2026 but is still set for another good quarter, expecting to report normalized profit in the third quarter of 2026 of 729 million baht, up 69% year on year but down 6% quarter on quarter. The research team expects sales of 8,649 million baht, up 4.4% from the previous quarter on higher selling prices. Soybean meal prices are expected to rise 6% to 15.7 baht per kilogram from 14.7 baht per kilogram, while sales volume may decline by a low single-digit percentage because animal feed producers are opting for spot purchases rather than forward contracts, amid higher CBOT soybean prices. Sales volume of soybean oil is expected to increase on bottled oil sales under the Thai Plus project and a narrow retail price gap of only about 2 to 3 baht between palm oil and soybean oil. The research team expects gross margin to fall 99 basis points from the previous quarter to 12.7%, but still 86 basis points above the third quarter of 2025, on soybean costs up about 5%, and expects a net margin of 8.4%, compared with 7.6% in the third quarter of 2025 and 10.6% in the second quarter of 2026, under the assumption of no foreign exchange gains. For the fourth quarter of 2026, management said costs will continue to rise, while the benefit of El Niño for soybean oil is expected to materialize in the first quarter of 2027 instead of the fourth quarter of 2026, because Malaysia's palm oil stocks remain high. The research team expects net profit in the fourth quarter of 2026 of about 420 million baht and maintains its Buy recommendation with a target price of 33.75 baht, based on comparable valuation at a P/E of 12.8 times against the five-year historical average, supported by sales volume growth from full capacity at its 7,000-tonne-per-day soybean crushing line, a dividend yield of about 8%, and the chance of benefiting from El Niño on soybean oil prices in the first half of 2027.
Thai Vegetable Oil Public Company LimitedTisco maintains Buy with 33.75 baht target and forecasts Q3/26 normalized profit up 69% YoY to 729 million baht.
