Antofagasta plc is a mining company operating through segments including Los Pelambres, Centinela, Antucoya, Zaldívar, Exploration and Evaluation, and Transport Division. It produces copper cathodes and concentrates, molybdenum concentrates, and gold and silver by-products. The company also provides rail and road cargo services to mining customers in northern Chile and has exploration projects in various countries. Incorporated in 1888 and headquartered in London, it operates across Europe, the Americas, and Asia, and is a subsidiary of Metalinvest Anstalt.
COMEX copper closes up 1.4% on expectations the Fed will hold rates steady
COMEX copper futures for December delivery closed up 9.20 cents, or 1.40%, at 6.6410 dollars per pound on Monday, October 5, after weaker-than-expected U.S. employment data led investors to expect the Fed will not raise interest rates at this month's meeting. Prices were also supported by expectations of long-term demand from data centers and renewable energy worldwide, even as the near-term outlook remained under pressure from signs of slowing industrial activity in China, the world's largest copper consumer. Meanwhile, Chile's copper output in August fell to its lowest level since February 2011, and workers at Antofagasta's Centinela mine voted to strike after wage negotiations failed to reach an agreement.
COPPER · Monetary · Positive Copper rose as weak U.S. jobs data led investors to expect the Fed will hold rates steady, with added support from Chile output at a 2011 low and a strike vote at Antofagasta's Centinela mine.
ANTO.LSE · Supply · Positive Workers at Antofagasta's Centinela mine voted to strike after wage talks failed, threatening supply from the miner.
BofA Raises Copper Forecast 20% to $12,000, Names Top Mining Picks
BofA Securities raised its long-term copper price forecast by 20% to $12,000 per ton for 2026 and updated its mining sector rankings, upgrading BHP to Buy with a price objective of A$68 and naming the world's largest copper producer its top pick among large-cap mining stocks. Glencore was rated Buy with a price objective of GBp650, with BofA highlighting its copper growth options and monitoring a potential Australian listing for the diversified miner. Norsk Hydro received a Buy rating with a price objective of NOK98, which BofA described as offering interesting risk-reward characteristics for the pure-play aluminum company. Antofagasta maintained its Buy rating with a price objective of GBp4700, with the bank noting roughly 30% volume growth potential. BofA also trimmed its 2027 aluminum forecast by 5% to $3,625 per ton, and cautioned that investors should be prepared for potential drawdowns of 10% to 20%, noting that during China's super cycle from 2002 to 2008 markets experienced multiple corrections despite overall upward trends.
BHP.LSE · Capital · Positive BofA upgraded BHP to Buy with an A$68 price objective and named it top pick among large-cap miners.
0Q11.LSE · Capital · Positive BofA initiated a Buy rating on Norsk Hydro with a NOK98 price objective, citing attractive risk-reward for the pure-play aluminum company.
ANTO.LSE · Capital · Positive BofA maintained its Buy rating on Antofagasta with a GBp4700 price objective, noting roughly 30% volume growth potential.
GLEN.LSE · Capital · Positive BofA rated Glencore Buy with a GBp650 price objective, highlighting its copper growth options.
ECB raises rates to 2.5%, lifts inflation outlook, European stocks and bonds fall
The European Central Bank decided to raise its key policy rate by 25 basis points to 2.50% and projected inflation of 3.0% for 2026. At a press conference after the governing council meeting, President Lagarde said risks to the inflation outlook are tilted to the upside, and markets raised their bets on the total rate increase by the April 2027 council meeting from about 51 basis points before the announcement to 60 basis points. In response, the STOXX Europe 600 index hit its lowest level in about two months, while the German 10-year bond yield rose to its highest since 2011 and the French 30-year yield to its highest since 2003. Intensifying attacks on ships in the Middle East pushed North Sea Brent crude futures to 105 dollars a barrel, and with copper prices falling, the STOXX Europe 600 resources index dropped 3.70%, with Antofagasta down 5.7%, Aurubis down 5.3% and Anglo American down 4.9%. In London, the FTSE 100 fell for a fifth straight session, with HSBC down 1.3% after announcing its chief financial officer will step down in 2027, and Associated British Foods down 7.9%.
Antofagasta Fair Value Trimmed as Analysts Split on Output
Antofagasta's fair value estimate has been trimmed from £38.80 to about £37.87, reflecting a split among analysts on the company's copper output guidance. Revenue growth expectations were adjusted from about 13.33% to about 8.60%, while net profit margin moved from about 19.19% to about 20.51%. Future P/E was updated from about 28.0x to about 27.3x, and the discount rate changed from about 9.52% to about 9.73%. Analyst price targets now cluster between roughly £35.60 and £44.00, with JPMorgan at the upper end after its July upgrade to Overweight and a target of 4,500 GBp later adjusted to 4,300 GBp. Morgan Stanley maintains an Underweight rating with targets around 3,560 GBp, while Deutsche Bank keeps a Sell rating even after raising its target to 3,400 GBp.
New York Copper Surges 3.34% on Tight Supply in China and Chile
New York copper futures surged 3.34% on Tuesday, buoyed by tight supply conditions in China and disruptions from major producers in Chile. COMEX copper for September delivery rose 21.15 cents to settle at 6.5525 dollars per pound. China's copper import premiums jumped to their highest since May of last year, as a crackdown on value-added tax fraud squeezed scrap copper availability and boosted demand for refined copper imports. Meanwhile, supply in Chile was hit by recent storms that affected output from major miners such as South32, Antofagasta, and Codelco. These supply concerns overshadowed ongoing market worries about the conflict between the United States and Iran.
Corporación Nacional del Cobre de Chile (Codelco) · Supply · Neutral Storms hit Codelco's output, tightening supply and boosting prices, but production loss is negative.
European Stocks Close Mostly Higher Despite Geopolitical Tensions
European stocks closed mostly higher on Thursday, with the pan-European Stoxx 600 climbing 0.78%, as investors looked past U.S.-Iran tensions and focused on corporate earnings and economic data. Germany's DAX and France's CAC 40 rose 0.89% and 0.9% respectively, while the UK's FTSE 100 slipped 0.16%. Mining and financial shares led gains, with Anglo American, Antofagasta, and Glencore up 4.1% to 6%, and Standard Chartered climbing 3.4%. AstraZeneca fell more than 6% after its nerve disease drug Wainua failed a late-stage trial. Germany's trade surplus widened to €19.1 billion in May, the largest since February, as exports unexpectedly rose 0.9% and imports dropped 2.5%.
Antofagasta upgraded at J.P. Morgan on superior copper growth outlook
J.P. Morgan upgraded Antofagasta to Overweight from Neutral and raised its price target to £45 from £34, citing superior medium-term copper growth prospects. The bank highlighted the company's organic copper growth potential of more than 30% through 2028 compared to 2025, which is relatively lower risk than peers as it relies on expanding existing projects, largely from the brownfield Centinela second concentrator project in Chile. J.P. Morgan also noted that the tug of war for copper between the U.S. and China will keep prices elevated, while potential U.S. Section 232 tariffs on copper could further tighten the market and support prices in the near term. The upgrade follows J.P. Morgan's revision of its copper price forecasts, raising 2026 estimates by 2% and 2027 estimates by 15%, and revising its 2026 and 2027 group EBITDA forecasts for Antofagasta by 3% and 24%, respectively.
European Markets Close Weak Amid US-Iran Peace Talks Uncertainty
European stocks closed weak on Friday as investors turned cautious over uncertainty about U.S. and Iran securing a lasting peace truce following the abrupt cancellation of talks in Switzerland. The pan European Stoxx 600 fell 0.24%, the UK's FTSE 100 ended down 0.35%, Germany's DAX drifted down 0.16%, and France's CAC 40 lost 0.55%. Mining stocks tumbled in London, with Antofagasta falling 6.1% and BHP Group down 4.3% after announcing a roughly $2.3 billion impairment charge on its Jansen potash project. In Frankfurt, Volkswagen ended 4.3% lower, while in Paris, Hermes International and LVMH lost between 1% and 2.3%. On the economic front, Germany's producer prices rose at the fastest pace in three years in May, and UK retail sales grew by a stronger-than-expected 1.2% month-on-month.
ANTO.LSE · Capital · Negative Antofagasta fell 6.1% after announcing a $2.3 billion impairment charge on its Jansen potash project.
BHP.LSE · Capital · Negative BHP Group fell 4.3% after announcing a $2.3 billion impairment charge on its Jansen potash project.
MC.PA · Geopolitics · Negative LVMH lost between 1% and 2.3% amid uncertainty over US-Iran peace talks, which may affect global trade and luxury demand.
VOW.XETRA · Geopolitics · Negative Volkswagen fell 4.3% amid uncertainty over US-Iran peace talks, which may affect global trade and energy costs.
VOW3.XETRA · Geopolitics · Negative Volkswagen VZO O.N. fell 4.3% amid uncertainty over US-Iran peace talks, which may affect global trade and energy costs.
RMS.PA · Geopolitics · Negative Uncertainty over US-Iran peace talks weighs on luxury stocks like Hermes due to geopolitical risk.
UK
Global
United States
China
Chile
