Ozempic, Wegovy, Mounjaro, Zepbound — they're all the same family of drug, mimicking the 'full' hormone our gut releases. They cut weight to a degree that used to require surgery, control diabetes, and on top of that reduce heart attacks and kidney disease. The result: a drug market growing from ~$53 billion in 2024 toward $150–200 billion by 2030 — with just two companies holding almost the entire thing. This is the biggest 'super-cycle' in biopharma.
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Theme index· base 100 · USD total return
Why is Metabolic, Diabetes & Obesity moving?
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Obesity drug demand broadens as pills, new markets and price cuts reshape the field
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Obesity drug demand keeps broadening Lilly's Mounjaro and Zepbound sales jumped 91% and 46%, and Novo's Wegovy pill passed 5 million prescriptions. CVS now offers GLP-1s with same-day pickup and $29 visits, and UK data show a third of Britons would try weight-loss pills. More patients are starting treatment, pulling the theme up.
Shows the core demand force still accelerating across companies and channels.
New pills and pipelines widen the market Oral GLP-1s are winning share: Lilly's Foundayo booked $98 million in its first quarter, Novo launched its Wegovy pill in Germany and applied in China, and Hengrui's oral GLP-1 was accepted for review. New drugs like ZhongSheng's RAY1225 and Pfizer's monthly shot add competition and reach more patients.
Captures the wave of new oral and pipeline products expanding the treatable market.
US price cuts squeeze obesity and diabetes drug revenue The Trump administration is extending Medicaid price discounts to mid-sized biotech firms, following earlier pressure on Lilly and others. Because obesity and diabetes drugs are top sellers, lower US prices directly reduce revenue per patient even as more people get treated, a real drag on the theme.
Identifies the main counterweight: pricing pressure that offsets volume growth.
China opens up as a major market and supplier China is expanding insurance coverage for innovative drugs and speeding approvals, while Shanghai backs biomedical innovation. Chinese firms like Hengrui are advancing GLP-1s and striking overseas deals worth over $100 billion. This adds both new demand and fresh global supply, expanding the metabolic market.
Highlights China's growing role as both a market and a competitive source for metabolic drugs.
News & notes movingMetabolic, Diabetes & Obesity
ChinaHong Kong SAR China
Metabolic, Diabetes & Obesity▲
3SBio Signs MindRank AI Deal to Commercialize Oral GLP-1 Obesity Drug MDR-001
3SBio subsidiaries Zhejiang Sunshine Mandi and Zhejiang Wansheng have signed an agreement with MindRank AI to commercialize MDR-001, an oral GLP-1 candidate in Phase 3 obesity trials. The deal lands as 3SBio shares trade at HK$15.07, with a 1-year total shareholder return down 45.58 percent, a 30-day share price return down 6.69 percent and a year-to-date share price return down 38.69 percent, even as the 3-year total shareholder return is up more than 2x. On valuation, 3SBio trades at a P/E of 3.9x against a Hong Kong Biotechs industry average of 17.3x and a peer group average of 36.2x, with an estimated fair P/E of 8.2x. A discounted cash flow model puts 3SBio's estimated future cash flow value at HK$33.62 versus the current HK$15.07 share price. Recent declines in revenue and net income, combined with the weak 1-year return, could pressure sentiment if MDR-001 progress disappoints.
Biotech & Genomic Medicine › Metabolic, Diabetes & Obesity ▲Technology
Longevity & Life Extension › GLP-1 Healthspan Proxies Technology
1530.HK · Demand · Positive 3SBio subsidiaries signed a deal with MindRank AI to commercialize the Phase 3 oral GLP-1 obesity candidate MDR-001, expanding its obesity drug pipeline.
MindRank AI Ltd · Demand · Positive MindRank AI signed the agreement with 3SBio to commercialize its oral GLP-1 candidate MDR-001.
603010.CG · Demand · Positive Zhejiang Wansheng is named as a 3SBio subsidiary signing the agreement to commercialize MDR-001.
Zhejiang Sansheng Wandi Pharmaceutical · Demand · Positive Zhejiang Sunshine Mandi is named as a 3SBio subsidiary signing the agreement to commercialize MDR-001.
Eli Lilly's Taltz Plus Zepbound Shows Added Psoriasis and Metabolic Benefit in Phase 3b Trial
An exploratory analysis of Eli Lilly's ongoing phase 3b TOGETHER-PsO trial indicates that combining Taltz, or ixekizumab, with Zepbound, or tirzepatide, may improve both psoriasis and metabolic outcomes compared with Taltz alone. The trial enrolled patients with moderate-to-severe plaque psoriasis who were obese or overweight and who had at least one additional weight-related comorbid condition, randomizing them to receive Taltz plus Zepbound or Taltz alone. At week 36, participants who took the two treatments together saw better changes in psoriasis-specific, immune, and metabolic biomarkers than those in the Taltz monotherapy group, with changes noted in more psoriasis disease-associated and metabolic biomarkers. The trial's primary endpoint is the proportion of participants achieving both Psoriasis Area and Severity Index 100 and at least 10% weight reduction at week 36. Lilly noted that in the US, approximately 61% of individuals with psoriasis also have obesity or are overweight with at least one weight-related comorbidity.
Novo Nordisk Raises 2026 Outlook, Targets Peer-Level Growth Through 2030
Novo Nordisk raised its 2026 outlook while telling investors at a London strategy day that it aims to grow revenue through 2030 at roughly the pace of large drugmaker peers. In the second quarter of 2026, adjusted sales rose 7% at constant exchange rates and adjusted operating profit rose 11%, though reported operating profit fell 16%, dragged down by a DKK 6.3 billion non-cash impairment on pipeline assets and by a year-ago rebate reversal. The raised 2026 outlook now puts adjusted sales and operating profit between flat and down 6% at constant exchange rates, while the longer view promises more than five multi-blockbuster launches by 2030, over DKK 150 billion in pipeline sales in 2035, and revenue growth in line with peers from 2026 to 2030, which management stressed are ambitions rather than guidance. The company's Wegovy pill topped 265,000 weekly prescriptions in a single week this summer and total prescriptions have passed 5 million since launch, but Eli Lilly's Mounjaro and Zepbound have overtaken Ozempic and Wegovy in the US, and Novo's next-generation shot CagriSema missed its goal of proving it was not inferior to Lilly's tirzepatide. At a forward P/E of 10.97 as of October 6, against 18.77 for the sector and a five-year average of 27.91, Novo trades well below peers, with 59 hedge funds holding the stock in the most recent quarter, up from 55, and short interest at just 0.83% of the float.
Biotech & Genomic Medicine › Metabolic, Diabetes & Obesity Competition
Aging Population › Chronic-Disease Pharma Franchises Competition
Longevity & Life Extension › GLP-1 Healthspan Proxies Competition
NVO · Capital · Neutral Novo raised its 2026 outlook and reported Q2 adjusted sales +7% and operating profit +11%, but reported operating profit fell 16% on a DKK 6.3bn impairment and the outlook still implies flat-to-down adjusted sales/profit.
NVO · Competition · Negative Eli Lilly's Mounjaro and Zepbound have overtaken Ozempic and Wegovy in the US, and Novo's next-gen CagriSema missed its non-inferiority goal versus Lilly's tirzepatide.
LLY · Competition · Positive Eli Lilly's Mounjaro and Zepbound have overtaken Ozempic and Wegovy in the US, and CagriSema missed its non-inferiority goal versus Lilly's tirzepatide.
Eli Lilly Trades at 30.94 Times Forward Earnings Despite 48% Revenue Growth
Eli Lilly reported 48% revenue growth for the second quarter of 2026 and raised its full-year outlook, yet the stock trades at 30.94 times forward earnings, well below its five-year average of 45.59. Mounjaro brought in $9.9 billion in the quarter, up 91%, and Zepbound added $4.9 billion, up 46%, while non-GAAP gross margin reached 86.3% and revenue outside the US rose 80% to $8.6 billion. The once-daily weight-loss pill Foundayo booked $98 million in its first quarter of sales, and Medicare's new coverage pathway now lets eligible patients get Foundayo or Zepbound for $50 a month, with Lilly estimating about 20 million Medicare patients may meet the clinical criteria. Management lifted 2026 revenue guidance to between $85 billion and $87 billion from $82 billion to $85 billion, and plans to file retatrutide with the FDA in the first quarter of 2027. Growth was volume-led, with volume up 60% against a 13% decline in realized prices, and second-quarter EPS of $8.38 absorbed $3.03 per share of acquired research charges, while reported EPS was $7.94 and full-year guidance stands at $35.50 to $36.50.
Biotech & Genomic Medicine › Metabolic, Diabetes & Obesity ▲Demand
Aging Population › Chronic-Disease Pharma Franchises ▲Demand
Longevity & Life Extension › GLP-1 Healthspan Proxies ▲Demand
LLY · Capital · Positive Lilly reported 48% Q2 revenue growth, 86.3% gross margin, and raised full-year 2026 revenue guidance to $85-87B.
LLY · Demand · Positive Mounjaro sales rose 91% to $9.9B, Zepbound rose 46% to $4.9B, and Medicare's new coverage pathway opens Foundayo/Zepbound to ~20M eligible patients.
Eli Lilly Consensus Estimates Rise as Zacks Rank Holds at #3
Eli Lilly is expected to post earnings of $9.83 per share for the current quarter, a year-over-year change of +40%, with the Zacks Consensus Estimate edging up +0.1% over the last 30 days. For the current fiscal year, the consensus earnings estimate of $36.64 points to a change of +51.3% from the prior year and has risen +0.3% over the past month, while the next fiscal year's consensus estimate of $46.8 indicates a change of +27.7% and has moved +1.4% higher. On the revenue side, the consensus sales estimate of $22.14 billion for the current quarter points to a year-over-year change of +25.8%, with the $88.88 billion and $102.02 billion estimates for the current and next fiscal years indicating changes of +36.4% and +14.8%, respectively. In the last reported quarter, Lilly posted revenues of $22.97 billion, up +47.7% year over year, and EPS of $8.38 versus $6.31 a year ago, beating the Zacks Consensus revenue estimate of $20.26 billion by +13.38% and the EPS estimate by +39.43%. The size of the recent change in the consensus estimate, along with three other factors related to earnings estimates, has resulted in a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for Lilly, and the stock is graded D on the Zacks Value Style Score, indicating it trades at a premium to its peers.
Aging Population › Chronic-Disease Pharma Franchises ▲Capital
Longevity & Life Extension › GLP-1 Healthspan Proxies Capital
Biotech & Genomic Medicine › Metabolic, Diabetes & Obesity ▲Capital
LLY · Capital · Positive Consensus earnings and revenue estimates for Eli Lilly rose, with current-quarter EPS seen up 40% YoY and full-year EPS up 51.3%.
Novo Nordisk Gets FDA Review Update on Denecimig as New CagriSema Data Land
Novo Nordisk reported an FDA review update for its haemophilia A therapy denecimig, including manufacturing-related feedback, in October 2026. The FDA has kept the denecimig review open without giving a new action date, flagging manufacturing issues rather than problems with the FRONTIER efficacy or safety data, though Novo Nordisk says the extended review does not change its 2026 financial outlook. The pharmaceutical group also presented new CagriSema data on brain and metabolic pathway effects in obesity and diabetes at EASD 2026, alongside real-world evidence comparing clinical outcomes for semaglutide with tirzepatide in everyday practice. Novo Nordisk, a US based pharmaceuticals group with a market value of about DKK1.1 trillion, focuses on treatments for chronic conditions such as diabetes, obesity and blood disorders. The key signposts ahead are the EMA decision following the positive CHMP opinion for denecimig and the US FDA decision on the CagriSema obesity filing expected in the fourth quarter of 2026.
Biotech & Genomic Medicine › Metabolic, Diabetes & Obesity ▲Regulation
Longevity & Life Extension › GLP-1 Healthspan Proxies Regulation
NVO · Regulation · Neutral FDA kept the denecimig haemophilia A review open, flagging manufacturing issues with no new action date, though efficacy/safety data were not the problem.
NVO · Technology · Positive New CagriSema data on brain and metabolic pathway effects in obesity and diabetes were presented at EASD 2026, alongside positive CHMP opinion for denecimig.
Citi cuts Novo Nordisk price target to 296 crowns on flat margin outlook
Citi Research lowered its price target on Novo Nordisk to 296 Danish crowns from 310, citing company guidance for broadly stable margins through 2030 that leaves little room for margin growth. The rating was kept at neutral. The guidance, driven by research and development spending, came at Novo's recent capital markets day, prompting Citi to cut its adjusted operating profit forecasts for 2028 to 2030 by 2% to 4%. Citi's target now assumes Novo trades at 14 times 2027 earnings, down from 15 times, and the analysts cut their expected 2027-2030 annual earnings-per-share growth rate to 9% from 12%. Citi raised its 2026 and 2027 adjusted operating profit forecasts by 2% to 3% on higher expected sales of Novo's Wegovy pill outside the United States and U.S. prescription trends for Ozempic, and lifted its adjusted sales forecasts by 3% for 2026 and 1% for 2027. At the capital markets day, Novo said improved manufacturing capacity means it intends to launch the Wegovy pill in at least 20 countries by the end of 2027, covering two-thirds of the obesity market it currently serves, and Citi raised its peak sales forecast for the pill to $13 billion from $10 billion, pointing to its UK launch where 1 million packs have been distributed since July. Ahead of Novo's third-quarter results on Nov. 4, Citi forecast sales 1% above consensus and Wegovy pill sales 16% above it at kr5.3 billion against the consensus kr4.5 billion, with adjusted operating profit in line with consensus because of lower margins from higher R&D spending. Citi forecast third-quarter sales of kr73.5 billion, down 4% at constant currency, citing a roughly kr3 billion rebate-adjustment and stocking benefit in the year-earlier quarter, continued prescription and price declines for U.S. Ozempic, generic launches in Canada and Brazil, and price declines for injectable Wegovy, and said prescription data showed no real impact from Medicare eligibility for GLP-1 drugs. It forecast adjusted operating profit up 18% at constant currency, or down about 15% excluding kr9 billion in year-earlier restructuring charges, and IFRS earnings per share of kr4.15, down 8% from a year earlier mainly on an impairment after the failure of ziltivekimab in the ZEUS trial. Citi said a Wegovy pill beat would be welcome but poor visibility on injectable Wegovy pricing and growing long-term threats from competitors were likely to keep many on the sidelines, naming Lilly's retatrutide and eloralintide, Roche's enicepatide, PFE's MET-097i and AZN's elecoglipron.
Biotech & Genomic Medicine › Metabolic, Diabetes & Obesity ▼Pricing
Aging Population › Chronic-Disease Pharma Franchises ▼Pricing
Longevity & Life Extension › GLP-1 Healthspan Proxies ▼Pricing
NVO · Capital · Negative Citi cut its Novo Nordisk price target to 296 crowns and lowered 2028-2030 operating profit and EPS growth forecasts on flat margin guidance.
Yipinhong's Innovative Drug APH04935 Tablets Receive US FDA Approval for Clinical Trials
Yipinhong announced in a midday bulletin on October 8 that its wholly-owned subsidiary Guangzhou Yipinhong Pharmaceutical recently received a letter from the US Food and Drug Administration, agreeing to allow the subsidiary to conduct clinical trials for its independently developed innovative drug APH04935 tablets. The drug is intended for weight control and long-term weight management.
Biotech & Genomic Medicine › Metabolic, Diabetes & Obesity Regulation
300723.CS · Technology · Positive US FDA agrees to allow clinical trials of its independently developed innovative drug APH04935 tablets for weight control.
Lepu Medical Subsidiary's MWN117 Injection Receives US FDA Clinical Trial Approval
Lepu Medical announced that its controlling subsidiary, Shanghai Minwei Biotechnology, has received a notice from the US FDA agreeing to allow clinical trials for the MWN117 injection. The drug is an siRNA therapy targeting INHBE inhibition, indicated for overweight and obesity, and has already received clinical trial approval from China's CDE. Non-clinical studies show that the drug, used alone or in combination with GLP-1 receptor agonists, effectively reduces body weight and body fat while reducing muscle loss, with efficacy lasting up to 12 weeks. Currently, no similar drug has been approved for marketing domestically or internationally.
Biotech & Genomic Medicine › RNA Therapeutics ▲Regulation
Biotech & Genomic Medicine › RNAi / Antisense Oligonucleotides ▲Regulation
Biotech & Genomic Medicine › Metabolic, Diabetes & Obesity Regulation
Longevity & Life Extension › GLP-1 Healthspan Proxies Regulation
300003.CS · Technology · Positive Lepu Medical's subsidiary received US FDA clinical trial approval for its siRNA obesity drug MWN117, advancing its R&D pipeline.
上海民为生物技术有限公司 · Technology · Positive Shanghai Minwei Biotechnology, the controlling subsidiary, received FDA clinical trial approval for its INHBE-targeting siRNA obesity therapy MWN117.
ZhongSheng Pharmaceutical's RAY1225 Meets Primary Endpoint in Phase III Weight-Loss Trial
ZhongSheng Pharmaceutical announced that its controlling subsidiary ZhongSheng Ruichuang has obtained top-line analysis data from the Phase III clinical trial, REBUILDING-2, of its independently developed Class 1 innovative peptide drug RAY1225 injection in overweight or obese participants, meeting the primary endpoint. Results showed that the 9 mg group of RAY1225 injection achieved a 22.24 percent reduction in body weight from baseline, or 20.46 percent after placebo adjustment, with weight-loss response rates and improvements in cardiometabolic indicators significantly better than placebo, and a favorable safety profile. The company cautioned that complete results are subject to the final clinical study report, and that drug approval remains uncertain.
Biotech & Genomic Medicine › Metabolic, Diabetes & Obesity ▲Technology
Longevity & Life Extension › GLP-1 Healthspan Proxies ▲Technology
002317.CS · Technology · Positive RAY1225 injection met the primary endpoint in the Phase III REBUILDING-2 weight-loss trial, showing 22.24% body-weight reduction with a favorable safety profile.
Viking Therapeutics Launches Oral Maintenance Study for Obesity Drug VK2735
Viking Therapeutics announced the initiation of a clinical study evaluating oral maintenance dosing of its lead obesity candidate, VK2735. The study, part two of the company's two-part weight-maintenance program, is designed to enroll approximately 195 adults with obesity and will test whether weight loss achieved with weekly subcutaneous VK2735 can be maintained using oral tablets or less frequent injections. All participants will initially receive weekly subcutaneous VK2735 or placebo for 21 weeks, after which those who received the drug will transition to maintenance regimens including daily or weekly oral doses, monthly or every-other-week subcutaneous doses, or placebo, with safety, tolerability and pharmacokinetics assessed and exploratory body-weight changes measured through week 33. The launch follows part one results announced last month, in which patients on weekly subcutaneous VK2735 achieved approximately 16% to 19% weight loss over the 21-week induction phase versus a 0.1% decline for placebo, and patients switched to every-other-week dosing retained about 90% of their prior weight loss while monthly dosing retained roughly 85%, compared with about 61% for those switched to placebo. A data readout from the new study is expected in 2027, and Viking is on track to start late-stage studies of oral VK2735 by the end of this year.
AstraZeneca Opens US$1b R&D Center in Kendall Square
AstraZeneca has opened a new US$1b global research and development center in Kendall Square, Massachusetts, consolidating its US work in oncology, cell therapy, chronic and rare diseases, and obesity into a single expanded hub. The site uses robotics and AI-enabled automation to support the company's research programs and broader drug development efforts. AstraZeneca is a GB-based biopharmaceutical group with a £185.5 billion market cap that spends heavily on discovering and developing prescription medicines. The company said the center tightens the link between early science and late-stage assets, which could affect how quickly it refines drug candidates and retires weaker programs. Investors will be watching for Phase II or Phase III readouts in obesity, COPD and key oncology programs over 2027 to 2029 as markers of whether the build-out is translating into a more resilient portfolio mix.
Biotech & Genomic Medicine › Oncology Therapeutics Capital
Biotech & Genomic Medicine › Metabolic, Diabetes & Obesity Capital
Biotech & Genomic Medicine › Immuno-Oncology / Checkpoint Capital
Biotech & Genomic Medicine › Cell Therapy (CAR-T & beyond) Capital
AZN.LSE · Technology · Positive AstraZeneca opened a $1B R&D center using robotics and AI to speed drug discovery and refine candidates across oncology, cell therapy, and obesity.
Novo Nordisk Rated Zacks Rank #3 as Earnings Estimates Rise
Novo Nordisk is rated Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), with the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the current quarter rising 6.9% over the last 30 days to $0.80 per share, a year-over-year change of -21.6%. For the current fiscal year, the consensus earnings estimate of $3.53 points to a change of -10.9% from the prior year and has moved +2.4% over the last 30 days, while the next fiscal year's estimate of $3.41 indicates a -3.5% change and has slipped -0.3% over the past month. Consensus sales estimates stand at $11.41 billion for the current quarter, $46.1 billion for the current fiscal year and $47.16 billion for the next fiscal year, indicating changes of -2.8%, -1.5% and +2.3%, respectively. In the last reported quarter, Novo Nordisk posted revenues of $12.21 billion, up 4.5% year over year and an 8.34% surprise over the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $11.27 billion, with EPS of $0.96 versus $0.97 a year ago and a +17.07% EPS surprise. The stock is graded A on the Zacks Value Style Score, indicating it trades at a discount to its peers, though its Zacks Rank #3 suggests it may perform in line with the broader market near term.
Aging Population › Chronic-Disease Pharma Franchises Capital
Biotech & Genomic Medicine › Metabolic, Diabetes & Obesity Capital
Longevity & Life Extension › GLP-1 Healthspan Proxies Capital
NVO · Capital · Neutral Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) with consensus earnings estimates rising 6.9% for the current quarter but still down year over year, an analyst-valuation update.
Sanofi, Novartis and Novo Nordisk Lead Week of Multi-Billion-Dollar Healthcare Deals
A Delaware federal judge on Monday rejected requests from Pfizer, BioNTech and Moderna to dismiss lawsuits filed by Bayer's Monsanto unit over their use of US Patent No. 7,741,118, a patent related to mRNA technology, with Judge William Bryson saying the companies failed to prove the patent was invalid or not infringed by their COVID-19 vaccines. Sanofi agreed to a deal worth up to $8B, including $1B upfront, with Regeneron to jointly develop four long-acting immunology therapies, led by the clinical-stage IL-13 monoclonal antibody REGN20423. China's Abogen Biosciences signed a licensing and option agreement with Novartis worth up to $7.8B, comprising a $575 million upfront payment and up to approximately $7.2 billion in potential milestone payments if all options on all programs are exercised, covering an exclusive worldwide license to Abogen's lead asset ABO2203. Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals agreed to license global rights to its experimental obesity drug HRS-1596 to Novo Nordisk in a deal worth up to $2.6B, with $300M upfront and the transaction expected to close in Q4 2026. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 Health Care Sector Index slipped 2.66% for the week, with Incyte down 6.93% and Regeneron down 6.71% among the top decliners, while McKesson rose 4.11% and Cardinal Health gained 3.67%.
Dexcom Report Flags CGM Growth Opportunity in Type 2 Diabetes Care
Dexcom released its 2026 "State of Type 2 Report: Global Access and Attitudes to Diabetes Technology" ahead of the 62nd Annual Meeting of the European Association for the Study of Diabetes, highlighting gaps in continuous glucose monitoring awareness and access while pointing to growing potential for combining CGM with GLP-1 therapies. The survey of more than 800 healthcare professionals and 2,500 people with Type 2 diabetes across eight countries found that 89% of HCPs believe CGM helps assess treatment adherence between appointments, yet 55% of surveyed Type 2 patients reported limited knowledge of the technology, and reimbursement and coverage challenges were cited by 90% of U.S. HCPs and 53% of HCPs in the other seven countries surveyed. Among existing users, 94% said CGM helps them manage diabetes more independently and 91% use CGM data to guide treatment decisions. The report also flagged an emerging intersection between CGM and GLP-1 therapies, with 58% of Type 2 patients taking GLP-1 medicines using CGM alongside their medication versus only 27% of Type 2 patients not using insulin, while half of HCPs expect increasing GLP-1 use to drive CGM adoption. Dexcom also partnered with Team Novo Nordisk, an all-diabetic professional cycling team principally sponsored by Novo Nordisk, to extend its visibility within the Type 1 diabetes community and create opportunities for real-world research, education and awareness.
Biotech & Genomic Medicine › Metabolic, Diabetes & Obesity ▲Demand
Biotech & Genomic Medicine › Diagnostics & Precision Testing ▲Demand
DXCM · Demand · Positive Dexcom's own report flags large untapped CGM awareness/access gaps and growing CGM+GLP-1 adoption potential, supporting its product demand outlook.
NVO · Demand · Positive Report shows 58% of Type 2 patients on GLP-1 medicines use CGM and half of HCPs expect rising GLP-1 use to drive CGM adoption, plus Novo Nordisk's Team Novo Nordisk partnership with Dexcom.
Eli Lilly Reports New Efficacy Data for Foundayo, EloraTZP and Ebglyss at EASD
Eli Lilly and Company presented new efficacy data from studies of its marketed and investigational metabolic medicines at the annual European Association for the Study of Diabetes conference. In the phase III ACHIEVE-4 study, Foundayo (orforglipron), a once-daily oral GLP-1 receptor agonist approved for chronic weight management, demonstrated a non-inferior risk of major adverse cardiovascular events versus titrated insulin glargine, with MACE-4 risk 16% lower, MACE-3 risk 23% lower, cardiovascular death risk 53% lower and all-cause death risk 57% lower; at 52 weeks A1C declined 1.6% versus 1% and body weight fell 8.8% versus a 1.7% increase, while 10.6% discontinued due to adverse events. Lilly also reported positive 48-week results from a phase IIb study of EloraTZP, an investigational combination of eloralintide and Zepbound, in adults with obesity or overweight and type II diabetes, where the highest-dose combination of 9 mg eloralintide plus 15 mg Zepbound reduced body weight by 23.3% (54.1 pounds) versus 14.8% (34.4 pounds) for Zepbound 15 mg alone, and A1C declined 2.9% versus 2.4%. Separately, the phase IIIb ADtouch study of Ebglyss (lebrikizumab-lbkz) met its primary and secondary endpoints, with 53% of patients on monotherapy achieving clear or almost clear hands and feet at week 16 versus 27% with placebo, and Lilly has submitted the data to the FDA seeking a potential U.S. label expansion to include localized atopic dermatitis with moderate-to-severe hand and foot involvement. Lilly has also submitted a regulatory filing to the FDA seeking approval of Foundayo for the treatment of type II diabetes, with the application currently under review, intensifying its oral GLP-1 competition with Novo Nordisk's oral Wegovy, Ozempic and Rybelsus.
Biotech & Genomic Medicine › Metabolic, Diabetes & Obesity ▲Competition
Longevity & Life Extension › GLP-1 Healthspan Proxies ▲Competition
LLY · Technology · Positive Positive efficacy data for Foundayo, EloraTZP and Ebglyss, plus FDA submissions for label expansion and type II diabetes approval.
NVO · Competition · Negative Lilly's Foundayo type II diabetes filing intensifies oral GLP-1 competition with Novo Nordisk's oral Wegovy, Ozempic and Rybelsus.
Regeneron's Trevogrumab Preserves 70% of Muscle Loss in Phase 2 COURAGE Trial
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals announced new Phase 2 COURAGE trial results showing that trevogrumab prevented 70% of the muscle loss associated with semaglutide treatment in people living with obesity. In a predefined MRI substudy, lower-dose trevogrumab preserved almost 70% of the thigh muscle that would otherwise have been lost with semaglutide alone, with 71.8% preservation at 52 weeks for the 25 mg dose and 68.9% for the 75 mg dose relative to placebo plus semaglutide. The lower-dose portion of the trial, which evaluated trevogrumab at 25 mg or 75 mg in combination with semaglutide 2.4 mg over 52 weeks, replicated the higher-dose findings, preserving lean mass at both 26 and 52 weeks, the primary endpoint, though it did not meaningfully enhance weight loss achieved with semaglutide alone. A pre-specified subgroup analysis found that patients meeting the low lean mass definition for sarcopenia had greater loss of lean mass with semaglutide and more preservation with trevogrumab. The results were presented at the European Association for the Study of Diabetes Annual Meeting and are in press with The Lancet, and Regeneron is planning to initiate a Phase 2 trial of trevogrumab in combination with GLP-1 receptor agonist-based therapies in older adults with obesity and decreased muscle mass and/or strength.
Biotech & Genomic Medicine › Metabolic, Diabetes & Obesity ▲Technology
Longevity & Life Extension › GLP-1 Healthspan Proxies ▲Technology
REGN · Technology · Positive Phase 2 COURAGE trial showed trevogrumab preserved ~70% of muscle loss from semaglutide, a positive R&D readout for Regeneron.
DenmarkUnited StatesUnited Arab EmiratesUnited KingdomGermany
Metabolic, Diabetes & Obesity▲2
Novo's Oral Wegovy Shows 4.1% Weight Loss After Switching From Injections
Novo Nordisk's oral Wegovy, or semaglutide, produced real-world weight loss in adults with overweight or obesity who switched from injectable GLP-1 therapies, according to data from the OCTANE study presented at the European Association for the Study of Diabetes on Sept. 30, 2026. The retrospective analysis, which drew on de-identified data from the Ro telehealth platform, covered 194 participants who moved from injectable Wegovy or Eli Lilly's Zepbound, or tirzepatide, to once-daily oral Wegovy between Jan. 5 and Feb. 7, 2026, and stayed on the pill for three months with weight data available at baseline and follow-up. Participants lost an average of four kilograms, or 8.8 pounds, over three months, equal to 4.1% of baseline body weight, while 40.7% achieved at least 5% weight loss and the share with a BMI of at least 30 kg/m2 fell 21.6 percentage points, from 87.1% at baseline to 65.5% at three months. Among participants with available information, 82.4% reported at least one treatment improvement, most often better-fitting clothes and healthier eating. Novo cautioned that the observational design cannot establish causality and cited limitations including variable data collection, self-reported measures, selection bias from requiring treatment persistence and limited generalizability. The Wegovy pill has launched in the United States, the United Arab Emirates, the United Kingdom and Germany, with additional select markets planned in coming quarters. Separately at the same conference, Novo presented 52-week functional MRI data showing CagriSema, its investigational once-weekly combination of cagrilintide and semaglutide, altered brain responses to high-calorie food cues and was linked to a 22.4% body-weight reduction versus placebo, along with a 14.3% weight reduction at week 40 in a diabetes MRI sub-study of the phase IIIa REIMAGINE 1 trial and a 14.2% weight reduction at week 68 in a post hoc analysis of phase III REIMAGINE 2. Novo submitted a new drug application to the FDA for CagriSema in weight management in December 2025, with a decision expected in the fourth quarter, and in 2026 began a phase III study of high-dose CagriSema 2.4 mg/7.2 mg in adults with obesity.
Biotech & Genomic Medicine › Metabolic, Diabetes & Obesity ▲Technology
Longevity & Life Extension › GLP-1 Healthspan Proxies ▲Technology
NVO · Technology · Positive OCTANE data show oral Wegovy produced 4.1% weight loss over three months in patients switching from injectables, supporting its oral GLP-1 product
Novo Nordisk Says Wegovy Cut Liver Fat to Normal in 9 of 10 Obese Adults
Novo Nordisk reported that Wegovy, its injectable semaglutide, brought liver fat down to normal levels in nearly nine out of ten adults with obesity and excess liver fat, according to a post hoc analysis of a 55-participant sub-population of the STEP UP trial presented at the European Association for the Study of Diabetes Annual Meeting 2026 in Milan. Among the 26 participants who entered with liver fat above 5%, 88.5%, or 23 people, reached the below-5% threshold by week 72, while mean liver fat across the group fell from 8.8% at baseline to 3.1% at week 72 as measured by magnetic resonance imaging. The analysis pooled 1,919 adults from the STEP UP and STEP UP T2D trials, of whom 1,312 received semaglutide 7.2 mg, 304 received semaglutide 2.4 mg and 303 received placebo, and more than 94% were classified as high risk for fatty liver by the Fatty Liver Index at baseline. Eric Lawitz of the Texas Liver Institute and University of Texas Health San Antonio said the findings suggest semaglutide may help address liver disease early, noting that as many as three in four people with obesity may have excess liver fat. Novo chief medical officer Filip Knop said the results help show the quality of weight loss seen with semaglutide, adding that the dedicated ESSENCE MASH trial demonstrated reversal of liver damage in people with MASH. Semaglutide 2.4 mg is approved for the treatment of MASH under the Wegovy brand in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, China and several other markets, while semaglutide 7.2 mg is not being investigated for MASH.
Biotech & Genomic Medicine › Metabolic, Diabetes & Obesity ▲Demand
Longevity & Life Extension › GLP-1 Healthspan Proxies ▲Demand
NVO · Technology · Positive Post hoc STEP UP analysis showed Wegovy/semaglutide normalized liver fat in ~9 of 10 obese adults with excess liver fat, supporting its clinical benefit.
Novo's Ozempic Cuts Cardiovascular Risk More Than Lilly's Mounjaro in Real-World Study
Novo Nordisk said new real-world data from its COMPETE SWITCH Cardiovascular study found that type II diabetes patients who increased their Ozempic dose had a lower observed risk of major adverse cardiovascular events than those who switched to Eli Lilly's Mounjaro. In the study, 67.2% of patients remained on Ozempic 1 mg within 365 days, 29.2% increased their dose to 2 mg and 3.6% switched to Mounjaro; by 720 days, 57.4% remained on semaglutide 1 mg, 36.9% had escalated to 2 mg and 5.7% had switched to Mounjaro. After adjustment for between-group differences, patients who increased their dose to Ozempic 2 mg had a statistically significant 6% lower risk of MACE than those who switched to Mounjaro, including doses of up to 15 mg, with MACE defined as all-cause death, heart attack and stroke. Novo cautioned that the study showed an association, not proof, that Ozempic 2 mg directly reduces cardiovascular risk more than Mounjaro, and that safety outcomes were not evaluated. Year to date, Novo shares have lost 22.2% against the industry's 14.9% growth.
Biotech & Genomic Medicine › Metabolic, Diabetes & Obesity ▲Competition
Aging Population › Chronic-Disease Pharma Franchises ▲Competition
Longevity & Life Extension › GLP-1 Healthspan Proxies ▲Competition
NVO · Technology · Positive Novo's own COMPETE SWITCH study found escalating to Ozempic 2 mg was associated with a statistically significant 6% lower MACE risk than switching to Mounjaro.
LLY · Competition · Negative Real-world COMPETE SWITCH data show patients on Ozempic 2 mg had a 6% lower MACE risk than those who switched to Lilly's Mounjaro, a competitive blow to Mounjaro.
Eli Lilly's EloraTZP Combo Cuts 23.3% of Weight in Phase 2b Trial
Eli Lilly reported that its experimental obesity and type 2 diabetes combination EloraTZP delivered up to 23.3% average weight loss in a Phase 2b trial, sending its shares up as much as 2.6% before closing 0.5% higher. In the 48-week trial of 367 participants, the combination of eloralintide and tirzepatide produced average weight loss of up to 54.1 lbs, or 23.3%, far outpacing the 34.4 lbs, or 14.8%, achieved by a 15 mg dose of tirzepatide alone. EloraTZP also reduced A1C levels by an average of up to 2.9%, compared with 2.4% for tirzepatide, and met all primary and secondary endpoints across the tested dose combinations, with the highest dose of 9 mg eloralintide plus 15 mg tirzepatide yielding the greatest reductions. The triple-hormone therapy activates GIP, GLP-1 and amylin; gastrointestinal side effects were the most common, and discontinuation rates for EloraTZP ranged from 10.8% to 27.0%, versus 2.9% for tirzepatide alone and 16.7% for placebo. Following the results, presented at the 62nd Annual Meeting of the European Association for the Study of Diabetes in Milan, Italy, Eli Lilly plans to begin Phase 3 trials of EloraTZP in the fourth quarter of 2026, while shares of rival Novo Nordisk slipped 0.3%.
Novo Nordisk's CagriSema Cuts 'Food Noise' and Body Weight 22.4% in EASD 2026 Data
Novo Nordisk presented new data at the European Association for the Study of Diabetes Annual Meeting 2026 showing that its investigational obesity and diabetes drug CagriSema changes brain responses to high-calorie food cues and reduces harmful fat around organs while maintaining bone health. In a 52-week functional magnetic resonance imaging study in adults with overweight or obesity, CagriSema improved eating behaviour and reduced 'food noise', cravings, hunger and appetite, and was associated with a 22.4% reduction in body weight versus placebo at 52 weeks. Separately, in a diabetes MRI sub-study of the phase 3a REIMAGINE 1 trial in adults with early type 2 diabetes, CagriSema 2.4 mg/2.4 mg produced significant reductions in fat in the abdomen and around the liver and pancreas alongside a 14.3% body-weight reduction at week 40, while a post hoc analysis of bone markers from the phase 3 REIMAGINE 2 trial showed signs of healthy bone maintenance alongside a 14.2% body-weight reduction at week 68. Novo Nordisk submitted a New Drug Application for CagriSema for weight management to the US Food and Drug Administration in December 2025, with a decision expected in Q4 2026, and initiated a phase 3 trial of high-dose CagriSema 2.4 mg/7.2 mg in adults with obesity in 2026.
Biotech & Genomic Medicine › Metabolic, Diabetes & Obesity ▲Technology
Longevity & Life Extension › GLP-1 Healthspan Proxies ▲Technology
NVO · Technology · Positive New EASD 2026 data show CagriSema cuts 'food noise' and body weight 22.4%, supporting its investigational obesity/diabetes profile.
Novo Licenses Hengrui's Oral GLP-1 Candidate HRS-1596 in Deal Worth Up to $2.6 Billion
Novo Nordisk has signed a licensing agreement with Hengrui Pharma for HRS-1596, a phase I-ready GLP-1/GIP dual receptor agonist with potential for once-weekly oral dosing. Under the deal, Novo gains exclusive rights to develop, manufacture and commercialize the candidate globally outside mainland China, Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan, with a total potential value of up to $2.6 billion including a $300 million upfront payment plus potential sales royalties; Hengrui has received approval in China to begin phase I studies of HRS-1596 for weight management and type II diabetes, and the transaction is expected to close in the fourth quarter subject to regulatory and customary conditions. The agreement builds on Novo's February partnership with Vivtex, under which Vivtex licensed selected oral drug-delivery technologies to Novo and is eligible for up to $2.1 billion in upfront consideration, research funding and milestone payments plus royalties, and on last year's exclusive global collaboration with Septerna, which received a $195 million upfront payment under an agreement providing for approximately $2.2 billion across upfront, research, development and commercial milestone payments plus tiered royalties. Novo is pursuing this external innovation strategy because semaglutide-based products, comprising Ozempic and Rybelsus for T2D and Wegovy for obesity, generated roughly 75.5% of its adjusted first-half 2026 sales, leaving it heavily exposed to competition and exclusivity shifts. Rival Eli Lilly's tirzepatide-based Mounjaro generated $18.6 billion in first-half 2026 sales, up 106%, while Zepbound sales rose 60% to $9.1 billion, and Lilly's oral obesity treatment Foundayo launched in the United States in April and is under regulatory review in more than 40 additional countries. Novo's first-half Ozempic sales declined 2% at constant exchange rates while Wegovy product sales increased 7%, and its latest outlook calls for both adjusted sales and adjusted operating profit to decline 0% to 6% at constant exchange rates in 2026.
Biotech & Genomic Medicine › Metabolic, Diabetes & Obesity Competition
600276.CG · Capital · Positive Hengrui licenses HRS-1596 to Novo for up to $2.6B including a $300M upfront payment plus royalties.
NVO · Capital · Positive Novo gains global rights to Hengrui's oral GLP-1/GIP candidate HRS-1596 for up to $2.6B, expanding its pipeline beyond semaglutide.
LLY · Competition · Negative Novo's licensing of an oral GLP-1/GIP candidate strengthens a rival in the obesity/diabetes market where Lilly's tirzepatide and oral Foundayo compete.
AbbVie's ABBV-295 Shows 11- to 12-Day Half-Life, Weight Loss in Phase 1 Data at EASD 2026
AbbVie presented detailed Phase 1 data at the European Association for the Study of Diabetes 2026 Annual Meeting in Milan showing that its investigational long-acting amylin analog ABBV-295 achieved an approximately 11- to 12-day half-life and dose-proportional increases in plasma exposure, supporting evaluation of dosing intervals beyond weekly administration, including every-other-week and monthly regimens. The results come from the 60 participants in Part 2B/2C of the multiple ascending dose study, who were randomized to receive ABBV-295 (n = 45) or placebo (n = 15), with a mean age of 41.5 years, a mean BMI of 29.3 kg/m2, and 88% male participants. ABBV-295 was dose-escalated to 4, 6, or 14 mg once weekly, 14 mg every other week, or 8 mg monthly, and administered for 12 or 13 weeks. Least-squares mean body weight reductions ranged from -7.8% to -9.8% at Week 12 for the once-weekly dosing cohorts and were -9.7% for the every-other-week cohort and -7.9% for the monthly cohort at Week 13, compared with approximately -0.3% for placebo. Gastrointestinal adverse events were predominantly mild and occurred primarily during the first six weeks of treatment, with nausea reported in 33.3% of participants receiving ABBV-295 versus 20.0% receiving placebo and diarrhea in 20.0% versus 0.0%; no severe GI adverse events or serious treatment-emergent adverse events were reported. AbbVie said the findings support advancing ABBV-295, a non-incretin amylin-based mechanism, into Phase 2 development for chronic weight management.
Biotech & Genomic Medicine › Metabolic, Diabetes & Obesity ▲Technology
ABBV · Technology · Positive AbbVie's ABBV-295 Phase 1 data showed 11-12 day half-life and up to 9.8% weight loss, supporting advancement into Phase 2 for chronic weight management.
Hengrui Medicine signs overseas licensing deal for HRS-1596 with Novo Nordisk, with potential total value of up to 2.6 billion US dollars
Hengrui Medicine announced that it has signed a licensing agreement with Novo Nordisk for the HRS-1596 project, granting the global weight-loss drug leader Novo Nordisk rights to its independently developed HRS-1596. The potential total transaction value is up to 2.6 billion US dollars, marking another step forward for Chinese innovative drug companies in the global weight-loss sector. On the same day, Dizal Pharmaceutical announced that it recently received a 600 million US dollar upfront payment from AstraZeneca. Boosted by this news, on September 30, the medical services concept rose 3.22 percent intraday, Yiqiao Shenzhou rose 13.14 percent, Nanmo Bio rose 10.70 percent, Berry Genomics rose 10.02 percent, Biopsychus rose 8.02 percent, and PharmaBlock Sciences rose 5.61 percent. Industrial Securities believes that innovation plus globalization remains the main theme for the pharmaceutical sector throughout the year. Multinational pharmaceutical companies facing patent cliffs need external pipelines, while domestic drug companies' R&D efficiency advantages are becoming more prominent, and cooperation models are upgrading, representing an increase in China's innovative voice.
Zealand Pharma Publishes Phase 2 ZUPREME-1 Petrelintide Results in The Lancet Diabetes & Endocrinology
Zealand Pharma announced that results from its Phase 2 ZUPREME-1 trial of investigational petrelintide have been published in The Lancet Diabetes & Endocrinology, with additional data to be presented at EASD 2026 on September 30 at 3:30pm CEST. In the randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, dose-finding trial, 485 adults with a mean age of 47 years and a BMI of 36.7 kg/m² were assigned 5:1 to once-weekly subcutaneous petrelintide at 1.0 mg, 2.5 mg, 5.0 mg, 7.0 mg or 9.0 mg, or placebo, for 42 weeks including dose escalation. Petrelintide led to mean body weight reductions from baseline to week 42 of up to 10.7% versus 1.7% for placebo on the efficacy estimand, and up to 10.2% versus 1.4% on the treatment policy estimand. Gastrointestinal adverse events were generally mild and occurred at rates similar to placebo, with no cases of vomiting and no treatment discontinuations due to gastrointestinal adverse events at the maximally effective dose. Treatment was also associated with reductions in waist circumference of up to 10.8 cm versus 4.3 cm with placebo, up to 41% reductions in high-sensitivity C-reactive protein versus 6% with placebo, triglyceride reductions of up to 21% versus 9%, and a mean pulse rate reduction of up to 2.9 beats per minute versus a mean increase of 0.3 bpm with placebo. Petrelintide is being evaluated for chronic weight management in three global Phase 3 registrational trials, and a Phase 2 trial of petrelintide in combination with enicepatide is planned for initiation in the second half of 2026.
Biotech & Genomic Medicine › Metabolic, Diabetes & Obesity ▲Technology
Longevity & Life Extension › GLP-1 Healthspan Proxies ▲Technology
0NZU.LSE · Technology · Positive Phase 2 ZUPREME-1 results for petrelintide published in The Lancet show up to 10.7% weight loss with clean GI safety, advancing its obesity pipeline.
Eli Lilly Shares Rise After Foundayo Shows More Weight Loss
Eli Lilly shares edged 1% higher in morning trading Tuesday after new data showed its oral Foundayo treatment produced greater weight and blood-sugar reductions than oral semaglutide at higher doses. The analysis examined 17.2 mg of Foundayo, or orforglipron, in adults with type 2 diabetes, and at week 52 patients receiving the Lilly drug recorded 1.5% more body-weight reduction than those taking 25 mg of oral semaglutide. The blood-sugar measure A1C also moved in Lilly's favor, with the analysis showing a further 0.3% reduction compared with the semaglutide group. The findings were presented during the European Association for the Study of Diabetes meeting in Milan, where EASD materials listed additional studies involving the treatment. Lilly has been developing Foundayo across its diabetes program as competition in oral GLP-1 medicines expands, though the comparison comes from separate studies rather than a direct head-to-head trial.
Biotech & Genomic Medicine › Metabolic, Diabetes & Obesity ▲Competition
Aging Population › Chronic-Disease Pharma Franchises ▲Competition
Longevity & Life Extension › GLP-1 Healthspan Proxies ▲Competition
LLY · Technology · Positive New data showed Lilly's oral Foundayo produced greater weight and blood-sugar reductions than oral semaglutide at higher doses.
Lilly Says Higher-Dose Zepbound Widened Weight-Loss Lead Over Wegovy
Eli Lilly says higher doses of Zepbound may have widened its weight-loss advantage over Novo Nordisk's Wegovy. A new indirect analysis found that patients receiving Zepbound 15 mg and 10 mg had 4.5 percentage points and 3.2 percentage points more weight loss, respectively, over 72 weeks than patients taking high-dose Wegovy. According to Lilly, patients receiving Zepbound 15 mg were three times more likely to lose at least 20% of their body weight compared with those receiving Wegovy HD, and the difference was even more pronounced among people reaching larger weight-loss goals. Discontinuation rates because of adverse events were comparable across the Zepbound 10 mg, Zepbound 15 mg and Wegovy HD groups. Lilly cautioned that the results did not come from a direct head-to-head trial, comparing data from its Phase 3 SURMOUNT-1 study with Novo Nordisk's STEP UP studies. Novo shares were down about 1.3% in Tuesday premarket trading, while Lilly was up roughly 0.4%.
Asia Plus flags BDMS, PR9 and BH as standout plays on the GLP-1 theme, keeps Buy ratings
Asia Plus Securities said GLP-1 drugs, used to treat type 2 diabetes and, in some formulations, to control weight in obese patients, are becoming a theme that supports private hospital operators, after Thailand's Food and Drug Administration upgraded GLP-1 injectables to specially controlled drugs from 15 September 2026, requiring them to be dispensed by prescription and using a Track & Trace system to monitor distribution and reduce leakage outside the system. Novo Nordisk is pressing ahead with expanding the obesity and diabetes market, including clinical research in Thailand, after investing about 370 million baht in research and development between 2019 and 2023. The research team holds a slightly positive view on private hospitals, because tighter regulation is likely to shift the channels through which the drugs are accessed rather than reduce demand, and should draw users toward standardised hospitals and clinics. Business opportunities extend to consultation fees, laboratory tests, follow-up and care for comorbidities. The effect on short-term profit is limited, given a still-low revenue base and constraints on drug prices, access and competition. The research team keeps an overweight stance on the hospital sector and sees BDMS and PR9 as standout beneficiaries. BDMS is advantaged by a diverse patient base and a large hospital network, while PR9 stands out for its cash-paying patient base, service accessibility, value for money and specialised services. BH also benefits from a cash-paying patient base and high-spending customers, but the quantitative benefit is expected to be smaller. It maintains Buy ratings on BDMS, PR9 and BH, with 2027 fair values of 25.00 baht, 3.00 baht and 225.00 baht respectively.
Biotech & Genomic Medicine › Metabolic, Diabetes & Obesity ▲Regulation
BDMS.BK · Regulation · Positive Thailand's FDA upgrade of GLP-1 injectables to specially controlled drugs is expected to shift access toward standardised hospitals, and BDMS is named a standout beneficiary with a Buy rating.
PR9.BK · Regulation · Positive PR9 is named a standout beneficiary of the GLP-1 regulation shift, cited for its cash-paying patient base, accessibility, value for money and specialised services; Buy rating kept.
BH.BK · Regulation · Positive BH benefits from the tighter GLP-1 regulation via its cash-paying, high-spending patient base, though the quantitative benefit is smaller; Buy rating maintained.
NVO · Demand · Positive Novo Nordisk is expanding the obesity and diabetes market, including clinical research in Thailand, after investing about 370 million baht in R&D from 2019-2023.
MSD Starts Phase I Trial Using Cyprumed Oral Delivery Tech
MSD has initiated a Phase I clinical trial of one of its proprietary drug candidates formulated using Cyprumed GmbH's licensed oral drug delivery technology, marking the first Cyprumed technology program to enter human clinical development and triggering a milestone payment from MSD. The study follows the two companies' Non-Exclusive License and Option Agreement announced in April 2025 to develop oral formulations of MSD's peptides using Cyprumed's technology. Under that agreement, Cyprumed is eligible to receive up to $493 million in upfront, development, regulatory and net sales milestones associated with products developed under the collaboration. Cyprumed CEO Florian Föger called the trial start an important milestone and a strong validation of the company's technology, noting its goal of overcoming challenges such as the impact of food on drug absorption. Cyprumed is a drug delivery technology company based in Innsbruck, Austria, focused on oral administration of therapeutic peptides including GLP-1 analogues, macrocycles and mini-proteins.
Biotech & Genomic Medicine › Metabolic, Diabetes & Obesity ▲Technology
Cyprumed GmbH · Technology · Positive First Cyprumed oral delivery technology program entered human clinical development, validating its platform and triggering a milestone payment from MSD.
MRK · Technology · Positive MSD initiated a Phase I trial of a proprietary drug candidate using Cyprumed's licensed oral delivery tech, advancing its pipeline.
Eli Lilly Wins FDA Breakthrough Status for Pancreatic Cancer Drug
Eli Lilly received FDA Breakthrough Therapy designation for its next-generation KRAS G12C inhibitor olomorasib in advanced pancreatic cancer. The designation flags olomorasib as a priority asset in KRAS driven pancreatic cancer, an area with high medical need and limited options, and reinforces Lilly's push to balance its incretin heavy portfolio with oncology drugs targeting defined mutations. The pharmaceutical group also launched a global Change the Course program aimed at broadening access to its diabetes and obesity treatments in low and middle income countries. CEO Dave Ricks signaled a shift toward larger acquisitions in new therapeutic areas that extend beyond the firm's current obesity focus, with the clearest marker being the size and stage of the next acquisition relative to the US$7.8b Centessa purchase, especially if it lands in areas like infectious disease, women's health, or psychiatry.
Eli Lilly Wins FDA Approval for Once-Weekly Onswik and Expanded Alopecia Label
Eli Lilly has secured U.S. FDA approval for Onswik, a once-weekly basal insulin for adults with type 2 diabetes, and won an expanded label for Olumiant to treat adolescents 12 and older with severe alopecia areata. Both approvals were supported by large Phase 3 programs showing efficacy and consistent safety profiles. The Onswik clearance adds another branded option alongside Mounjaro and Foundayo, reinforcing Lilly's push to build an integrated cardiometabolic platform rather than a single-product bet. Lilly is also broadening its pipeline and commercial reach through research collaborations, manufacturing expansion and AI-enabled discovery efforts, aiming to diversify beyond its core obesity and diabetes franchises. The company's narrative projects $118.6 billion in revenue and $49.8 billion in earnings by 2029, requiring 14.2% yearly revenue growth and a $23.1 billion earnings increase from $26.7 billion today.
Novo Nordisk Signs €1.165 Billion Nanexa Deal for Monthly GLP-1 Dosing
Novo Nordisk A/S has entered an exclusive global license and collaboration agreement with Swedish drug delivery platform company Nanexa AB, reported on September 25. The partnership covers up to five development programs in obesity, type 2 diabetes, and other cardiometabolic indications, using Nanexa's proprietary PharmaShell technology platform to formulate long-acting injectables that could extend dosing intervals to monthly or quarterly schedules. Under the deal terms, Nanexa is eligible to receive total payments reaching €1.165 billion, including €615 million in upfront and development and regulatory milestones, alongside sales milestones and low single-digit royalties on future global net sales. The transaction follows Novo's Q2 2026 financial release, in which the company reported an 11% CER increase in adjusted operating profit to DKK 33,389 million and raised its full-year 2026 sales and operating profit outlook. Novo's Wegovy portfolio remains its primary growth engine, with weekly US prescriptions exceeding 265,000 and European expansion underway following EMA approvals for the single-dose 7.2 mg pen and oral Wegovy pill.
Biotech & Genomic Medicine › Metabolic, Diabetes & Obesity ▲Technology
NVO · Technology · Positive Novo signs exclusive license to Nanexa's PharmaShell platform to develop long-acting GLP-1 injectables with monthly/quarterly dosing.
NVO · Capital · Positive Deal follows Novo's Q2 2026 results showing 11% CER operating profit growth and a raised full-year outlook.
Nanexa · Capital · Positive Nanexa is eligible for up to €1.165 billion in payments including €615 million upfront/development milestones plus royalties under the Novo license deal.
Merck's Remigromig Hits Phase 2b/3 Endpoint in Diabetic Macular Edema
Merck & Co., Inc. announced positive topline results from its pivotal Phase 2b/3 BRUNELLO trial of remigromig, a potentially first-in-class tri-specific Wnt pathway agonist, in adults with diabetic macular edema. At 52 weeks, both the 0.5 mg and 0.8 mg doses met the primary endpoint by demonstrating non-inferiority to the standard-of-care active control, 0.5 mg ranibizumab, for mean change in best-corrected visual acuity. While remigromig was generally well tolerated, higher rates of proliferative diabetic retinopathy, vitreous hemorrhage, and adverse event-related discontinuations were observed in the treatment arms. Full year-one data will be presented at the American Academy of Ophthalmology Annual Meeting on October 10. The company reported $16.6 billion in Q2 worldwide sales, up 5%, with KEYTRUDA and KEYTRUDA QLEX accounting for $8.4 billion, or over 50%, of that total, and full-year 2026 non-GAAP EPS expectations were revised to $2.66–$2.76 due to $3.62 per share in one-time charges following the Terns and Cidara transactions.
Biotech & Genomic Medicine › Oncology Therapeutics Competition
Biotech & Genomic Medicine › Immuno-Oncology / Checkpoint Competition
Biotech & Genomic Medicine › Metabolic, Diabetes & Obesity Technology
MRK · Technology · Positive Remigromig met the primary endpoint in the pivotal Phase 2b/3 BRUNELLO trial for diabetic macular edema, a positive R&D readout.
MRK · Capital · Neutral Q2 sales rose 5% to $16.6B but full-year 2026 non-GAAP EPS guidance was cut to $2.66–$2.76 due to $3.62/share in one-time charges from the Terns and Cidara deals.
Eccogene Gets $50 Million AstraZeneca Milestone as Elecoglipron Enters Phase 3
Eccogene has received a $50 million milestone payment from AstraZeneca, triggered by the initiation of the global Phase 3 clinical program for elecoglipron, also known as AZD5004 or ECC5004. Elecoglipron is an investigational once-daily oral small molecule GLP-1 receptor agonist discovered by Eccogene and licensed to AstraZeneca outside Greater China in November 2023. The Phase 3 program includes the Embold trials in obesity or overweight with and without type 2 diabetes, the Eluminate trials in type 2 diabetes as monotherapy and in combination with dapagliflozin, and two Elevate outcome trials in heart failure with mildly reduced or preserved ejection fraction and chronic kidney disease. The Phase 3 start follows positive topline results from the Phase 2b VISTA and SOLSTICE trials, which showed 11.8% weight loss at 36 weeks in adults with obesity or overweight and a 1.9% HbA1c reduction at 26 weeks in adults with type 2 diabetes. Eccogene has now earned $295 million to date under the collaboration and remains eligible for future milestones and royalties, with the original deal including a $185 million upfront payment and up to $1.825 billion in total clinical, regulatory and commercial milestones.
Biotech & Genomic Medicine › Metabolic, Diabetes & Obesity ▲Demand
Eccogene · Capital · Positive Eccogene receives a $50M AstraZeneca milestone on Phase 3 start of elecoglipron, bringing total earned to $295M plus future milestones and royalties.
AZN.LSE · Capital · Positive AstraZeneca's elecoglipron (AZD5004) advances into global Phase 3, triggering a $50M milestone payment and validating its licensed GLP-1 asset.
Roche Obesity Drug Enicepatide Cuts Blood Sugar, 15.5% Weight in Mid-Stage Trial
Roche's experimental obesity drug enicepatide helped overweight or obese patients with type 2 diabetes improve blood sugar control while losing an average of 15.5% of their body weight in a mid-stage trial, adding another potentially important asset to the company's effort to challenge obesity-market leaders Eli Lilly and Company and Novo Nordisk A/S. In the 447-patient study, patients receiving the highest 24-milligram dose experienced significant reductions in HbA1c at 48 weeks, meeting the study's two main goals, and Roche said approximately 62% of patients achieved HbA1c levels below 5.7%, putting their blood sugar into the non-diabetic range. The findings follow a separate mid-stage result reported in June in which enicepatide helped overweight or obese patients without diabetes lose 22.7% of their body weight; Roche said the two weight-loss figures should not be directly compared because they come from separate trials involving different patient populations. Roche plans to begin late-stage glycemic-control and cardiovascular-outcomes studies during the first half of 2027, though enicepatide remains an experimental drug and the latest results should not be treated as evidence of regulatory approval or eventual commercial success. Roche said around 2% of patients taking enicepatide in the 447-patient study discontinued treatment because of side effects, compared with none in the placebo group, with most gastrointestinal side effects described as mild to moderate, and the company is betting on next-generation therapies in an obesity market expected to exceed $100 billion in annual sales within the next decade, where AstraZeneca and Amgen are among the large drugmakers also racing to break in.
Lilly CEO Signals Bigger Deals in Hunt for Pharma's 'White Spaces'
Eli Lilly & Co. will pursue slightly larger acquisitions, along the lines of its $7.8 billion purchase of Centessa Pharmaceuticals Plc, as it searches for assets in the "white spaces" of science, Chief Executive Officer Dave Ricks said. Lilly, now the world's largest pharmaceutical company, has been on a record spending spree funded by its weight-loss and diabetes shots, and Ricks told Bloomberg that reinvesting in human health is more attractive than buying back shares or issuing dividends. He pointed to infectious disease, women's health and psychiatric conditions as areas of opportunity, noting the company acquired three vaccine-makers for as much as $3.8 billion earlier this year and recently agreed to buy psychedelics firm AtaiBeckley Inc. for about the same price. Lilly has completed about 40 deals so far this year, with a total value of more than $20 billion, the highest ever in a single year according to Bloomberg-compiled data. Ricks said the company favors more mature assets when they address brand new problems, a shift from its historical focus on earlier-stage, cheaper drugs.
Biotech & Genomic Medicine › Metabolic, Diabetes & Obesity ▲Capital
Psychedelic Medicine › Novel Psychedelic & Next-Gen Pipeline ▲Capital
Psychedelic Medicine › Psilocybin Therapeutics ▲Capital
Biotech & Genomic Medicine › Vaccines (Recombinant & Traditional) ▲Capital
Biotech & Genomic Medicine › Antiviral & Infectious-Disease Therapeutics ▲Capital
Psychedelic Medicine › MDMA-Assisted Therapy ▲Capital
LLY · Capital · Positive CEO Dave Ricks signaled Lilly will pursue larger acquisitions funded by its weight-loss/diabetes cash flow, with ~40 deals worth over $20 billion this year.
Centessa Pharmaceuticals · Capital · Positive Lilly's $7.8 billion purchase of Centessa Pharmaceuticals is cited as the template for its larger deal strategy.
ATAI · Capital · Positive Lilly agreed to acquire psychedelics firm AtaiBeckley (ATAI Life Sciences) for about $3.8 billion, a buyout premium for the company.
Merck Licenses SciBrunch's SPR2015 KRAS Inhibitor in $2.13 Billion Deal
Merck has entered into an exclusive global license agreement with SciBrunch Therapeutics for SPR2015, an investigational preclinical oral KRAS G12D (ON) inhibitor. Under the deal, SciBrunch grants Merck exclusive rights to develop, manufacture and commercialize SPR2015 worldwide, receiving a $400 million upfront payment plus milestone payments tied to development, commercialization and other activities across multiple indications, for a total potential aggregate value of $2.13 billion. The transaction has closed, and Merck will record a pre-tax charge of $400 million, or approximately $0.13 per share, in its GAAP and non-GAAP third-quarter 2026 results. SciBrunch founder, chairman and chief executive Tao Hu said the agreement validates the company's R&D platform and the potential of SPR2015 against unmet needs in pancreatic, colorectal, lung and other major malignant tumors. BofA Securities acted as exclusive financial advisor to SciBrunch.
Biotech & Genomic Medicine › Oncology Therapeutics ▲Competition
Biotech & Genomic Medicine › Metabolic, Diabetes & Obesity Capital
MRK · Capital · Positive Merck licenses SPR2015 KRAS G12D inhibitor for $400M upfront and up to $2.13B total, adding a preclinical oncology asset to its pipeline.
SciBrunch Therapeutics Co., Ltd. · Capital · Positive SciBrunch grants Merck exclusive global rights to SPR2015, receiving $400M upfront plus milestones worth up to $2.13B total.
Lilly Launches Change the Course Commitment to Close Diabetes and Obesity Access Gap in LMICs by 2040
Eli Lilly and Company launched the Lilly Change the Course Commitment, a global health initiative aiming to achieve parity in the number of patients treated with its innovative diabetes and obesity medicines in resource-limited settings, including low- and middle-income countries, compared with high-income countries before 2040. Today, for every 4 people in high-income countries who have access to Lilly's diabetes and obesity medicines, only 1 person in low- and middle-income countries can reach them. The commitment is organized around three pillars: developing medicines suitable for people in resource-limited settings from the earliest stages of clinical development, registering and expanding access to medicines including GLP-1s with a focus on Africa, Latin America and Asia, and helping strengthen health systems through community health worker training and digital tools. The announcement follows the completion of the Lilly 30x30 global health initiative five years ahead of schedule, which expanded access to quality healthcare for 40 million people in resource-limited settings in 2025, exceeding its original goal of reaching 30 million people annually by 2030. Lilly chair and CEO David A. Ricks said innovative medicines like Foundayo, or orforglipron, an oral treatment that can be stored at room temperature, will help the company distribute and scale access across more LMICs. Lilly will report progress in treatment reach through its annual Sustainability Report and at key global health forums.
Biotech & Genomic Medicine › Metabolic, Diabetes & Obesity ▲Demand
LLY · Demand · Positive Lilly launches Change the Course Commitment to expand access to its diabetes and obesity medicines, including GLP-1s, across low- and middle-income countries by 2040, broadening its patient base.
DataMeds AI and Tollo Health Launch Health Lives Here GLP-1 App
DataMeds AI, Inc. and Tollo Health, LLC announced the launch of the Health Lives Here mobile application, initially focused on supporting users of GLP-1 receptor agonist medications, with plans to expand to Long COVID patients in the fourth quarter of 2026 and thereafter to cancer patients. Marketing is being driven through the companies' partnership with NFL Alumni Health, the health-focused division of the National Football League Alumni Association. The launch coincides with the creation of a national Health Lives Here healthcare network, beginning with key independent pharmacies selected from among DataMEDS' wholly-owned subsidiary Corexa Health's independent pharmacy network, with the first Health Lives Here pharmacy being Moose Pharmacy of Concord in Concord, NC. The app offers in-app telemedicine consultations with licensed physicians who can evaluate patients for, prescribe and help manage GLP-1 therapies, and Corexa's pharmacy offers cash-pay options to purchase FDA-approved branded GLP-1 receptor agonist medications within the app with direct delivery to patients' homes. The app also features targeted nutritional support including Tollo Health's proprietary medical food Forzet, antiviral products Galectovid and Tollovid, wearables data tracking from Apple Watch, Samsung Galaxy Watch, WHOOP and Oura Ring, behavioral health tools including an AI health coach and AI chatbot, and forthcoming diagnostic lab services through DataMEDS' acquisition of Helomics Corporation, with patient electronic health records and digital twin development and a provider network planned for 2027. The companies believe the Health Lives Here ecosystem will be especially valuable to underserved and rural communities by increasing awareness of healthy living, improving access to affordable pharmacy services and unique products, and giving patients more control over their health data.
Biotech & Genomic Medicine › Metabolic, Diabetes & Obesity ▲Demand
Artificial Intelligence › AI Applications & Copilots Demand
MEDS · Technology · Positive DataMeds AI launches the Health Lives Here GLP-1 app with telemedicine, wearables, and AI tools, advancing its product ecosystem.
Corexa Health · Demand · Positive Corexa Health's independent pharmacy network supplies the first Health Lives Here pharmacies and offers in-app cash-pay GLP-1 delivery.
Moose Pharmacy of Concord · Demand · Positive Moose Pharmacy of Concord is named the first Health Lives Here pharmacy in the new national network.
Helomics Corporation · Technology · Positive Forthcoming diagnostic lab services will come through DataMEDS' acquisition of Helomics Corporation.
