Deere and CNH Face FTC-USDA Inquiry as Farm Equipment Cycle Nears Bottom

This year's autumn farming season has seen more high-end smart agricultural machinery products put into frontline use, with accelerated industrial application of grain combine harvesters with an 18-kilogram-per-second feed rate and plant protection drones with an 85-kilogram payload. On October 8, the CSI Agriculture Thematic Index rose 0.35%, with constituent stocks including Zhongnongfa Seed, Shennong Seed, and Hainan Rubber leading gains; the underlying index of Agricultural ETF Tianhong rose 0.59%, with turnover exceeding 670,000 yuan, and net inflows of nearly 50 million yuan over the past week as of September 30. Sinolink Securities noted that China continues to promote the revitalization of the seed industry and boost output by raising grain yields per unit area. Global weather disruptions may cause some decline in crop production. At present, the planting sector's prosperity has bottomed out and stabilized, and grain prices have begun to rise. If a substantial reduction in grain output occurs, the prosperity of the planting industry chain is expected to improve.

JPMorgan has warned that the next global food crisis could erupt next year, and China's A-share agricultural sector surged in response on August 17. Nongfa Seed and Luoniushan hit their daily trading limits, while Qiule Seed, Shennong Seed, Western Animal Husbandry, Sukin Agricultural Development, and Longping High-Tech also moved higher. Seed, grain concept, and pork concept stocks all strengthened. JPMorgan noted that shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and a potentially historic super El Niño could reduce crop yields, pushing global food inflation from 2.8 percent in the first half of 2026 to 5 percent in the first half of 2027. Data from the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization show that the food price index averaged 131.1 points in July 2026, up 1 percent year on year, with the cereal price index rising 3.4 percent month on month and the vegetable oil price index reaching its highest level since June 2022. Monitoring by the National Climate Center shows that the equatorial central and eastern Pacific has entered the watch zone for a strong El Niño event, with the probability of a super El Niño later increasing, and the event is expected to last at least until next spring.

Global food prices rose in July to their highest level in more than three years, amid concerns over production volumes and key grain export routes. The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations reported that its world food price index increased 0.6 percent from the previous month, reaching the highest since January 2023, driven mainly by higher prices for cereals, sugar, and vegetable oils. A major risk stems from the Black Sea region after attacks between Russia and Ukraine intensified, raising concerns over grain exports and helping push wheat prices to a two-year high in June. Meanwhile, Europe is facing one of its most severe drops in grain production on record due to extreme heat, and key growing areas in the United States are experiencing drought, increasing risks to corn and soybean output. Food price risks could rise further in the near term due to the prospect of an unusually strong El Niño, coupled with fertilizer supply issues and still-high energy costs.

Walmart, General Mills, and ADM are collaborating on a new regenerative agriculture program covering 40,000 Midwest wheat acres. The initiative targets soil health, water quality, and carbon sequestration, and is designed as a model for broader industry change across food and retail supply chains. The program ties Walmart's shelf offerings to specific environmental outcomes, linking its retail scale to farm-level practices. For investors, this signals how the retailer is managing long-term supply reliability and environmental expectations simultaneously.