KGI maintains Buy on THAI with 7.00 baht target as 3Q69 bookings grow

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KGI Securities (Thailand) said after a meeting with THAI management that the business outlook for the second half of 2026 remains strong even as the airline enters the low season, with 3Q69 bookings growing from a year earlier, supported by a strong recovery on European routes and a cabin factor of 85%. For 4Q69, operating results are expected to grow well in line with the tourism season. On oil price hedging, in 2Q69 THAI raised its hedge ratio to 60% covering 24 months, from 50% covering 12 months, while in 2H69 the hedging ratio stands at 40%, split between Brent at 30% and jet fuel at 10%. As for the search for a new CEO, applications are open until September 27, 2026, and clarity is expected by the end of this year. The research team maintained its net profit forecast for THAI in 2026F at 19.5 billion baht, down 36.8% from a year earlier, mainly due to higher fuel costs stemming from the US-Iran war, while 2027F profit is expected to recover to 23.0 billion baht, up 17.7% year on year. It maintained its Buy recommendation with a 2027F target price of 7.00 baht, based on an EV/EBITDA of 6 times, or plus 1.5 standard deviations, after THAI was added to the FTSE Small Cap index effective September 21, 2026.

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