Summary · why it matters
Trinity Securities assesses that global stock markets in the fourth quarter of 2026 will enter a Tug-of-War phase, with volatility driven by the push and pull between macroeconomic factors weighing on the market and microeconomic factors still providing support. Nattachart Mekmasin, Senior Assistant Managing Director of the Securities Analysis Department, stated that the SET's trading range for the remainder of the year is estimated at 1,500-1,700 points, based on a PE Model using three Forward P/E scenarios of 15.9 times, 14.8 times, and 13.8 times, together with 2026 EPS forecasts from the Bloomberg Consensus of approximately 110 baht, yielding appropriate index levels of 1,750 points in the best case, 1,630 points in the base case, and 1,510 points in the worst case, compared with the SET's current level of around 1,580 points. Key macroeconomic factors to watch are the direction of the Fed's monetary policy after it raised interest rates by 0.25% for the first time in this cycle in mid-September, and the U.S. midterm elections on November 3, 2026, for which Trinity's base case sees Democrats having a chance to win a majority in the House of Representatives, while Republicans are likely to narrowly retain their majority in the Senate, resulting in a Divided Congress. On the microeconomic side, support still comes from upward revisions to EPS estimates spread across many industries after second-quarter 2026 earnings beat expectations, while the Implied Equity Risk Premium stands at approximately 5.8%, above the long-term average of 4.0%, and the Real Policy Rate is negative at approximately -1.0% to -1.9%. For investment strategy, Trinity recommends a Bottom Fishing or Buy the Dip approach rather than chasing stocks during a bull market, while emphasizing Sector Rotation and Stock Selection, with five prominent stock themes selected: the livestock group, with BTG and TFG as top picks; the tourism group, with AWC and ERW; the retail group, with CRC and COM7; the processed agricultural products group, with STA and TVO; and the group benefiting from FDI, with AMATA and STECON.
Com7 PCL
Central Retail Corporation Public Company Limited
The Erawan Group Public Company Limited
Betagro PCL
Thai Vegetable Oil Public Company Limited
