TUI AG

Barclays downgraded Ryanair and Norwegian Air Shuttle to Equal Weight from Overweight, citing persistently high fuel prices that threaten fourth-quarter and 2027 profits across European airlines. Analysts led by Andrew Lobbenberg cut Ryanair's price target to €24 from €28.50 and Norwegian's to NOK 11.50 from NOK 20, with the bank now pricing estimates off the current fuel forward curve, producing moderate cuts for the rest of 2026 and larger ones in 2027 when hedging is lower. Barclays' estimates sit below Bloomberg consensus this year and, the analysts said, "very significantly" below next year. The crack spread between crude and kerosene has widened, offsetting any moderation in crude prices, and Barclays doubts airlines can pass the costs on, writing that "Airlines do not set fares - the market does." Low-cost carriers are most challenged because fuel is about 47% of revenue on Barclays' estimates, and Ryanair faces a hedging cliff with cover dropping from 80% in March 2027 to 15% in April. Barclays kept Underweight ratings on Lufthansa, Air France-KLM and Finnair, named IAG its preferred major airline, and kept Overweight ratings on Aegean, Jet2, TUI and Wizz, calling Wizz a "more speculative" call.