Equinox Gold raises 2026 production outlook and dividend after Orla Mining deal

Domestic gold prices are on track to post a positive return for an eighth consecutive year. As of October 8, 2026, gold prices had risen by about 900 baht, and looking back at October data over the past five years, from 2021 to 2025, gold rose in four of those years and fell in only one, delivering positive returns in 80% of the period under review. In 2025, prices surged by 3,000 baht to 61,400 baht, while 2024 was the only year to decline, falling 500 baht. Gold nonetheless climbed to a yearly peak of around 81,950 baht before correcting. On the morning of October 8, 2026, 96.5% gold bars were bought back at 65,650 baht and sold at 65,850 baht. The key supporting factor is the direction of Federal Reserve monetary policy, after U.S. nonfarm payrolls for September rose by only 29,000 and the unemployment rate climbed to 4.2%, prompting the market to sharply scale back expectations for an October rate hike. Meanwhile, a World Gold Council survey of 74 central banks found that 45% plan to increase their gold holdings over the next 12 months, the highest share since the survey began in 2018, and China added about 740,000 ounces, or roughly 23 tonnes, to its gold reserves in September, a 23rd consecutive month of increases. Pressures still come from U.S. bond yields, Brent crude oil prices back above 100 dollars a barrel, and technical signals after prices broke below support at 4,200 dollars an ounce on September 28. Gold must break through 4,200 dollars to confirm a short-term recovery and 4,540 dollars to confirm a medium- and long-term uptrend.

Aura Minerals reported record preliminary Q3 2026 production of 95,557 gold equivalent ounces, its highest-ever quarterly and nine-month output across six operating mines. The result was driven by sharp gains at MSG and strong performances at Borborema and Aranzazu. The company said production and sales growth remained strong even after adjusting for metal prices, while construction and development at the Era Dorada project continued on schedule. Aura Minerals also recently secured a new US$200 million syndicated loan facility to help finance supplier payments and prepay production costs while advancing its growth pipeline. The company's narrative projects $2.3 billion in revenue and $1.0 billion in earnings by 2029, requiring 21.0% yearly revenue growth and roughly a $701 million earnings increase from $298.6 million today.

Discovery Mining Ltd. reported past drilling results from 52 holes at the Pamour Mine that confirm and expand existing open-pit mineral resources across multiple zones, with numerous high-grade gold intersections both within and beyond the current resource shell. Several of the strongest Pamour intercepts sit just outside the current pit design, hinting that future resource updates could reframe the scale and configuration of this core asset. The company also recently received key environmental and land use permits for Cordero in Mexico, reducing permitting risk around a future growth project. Discovery Mining's narrative projects $1.7 billion in revenue and $400.5 million in earnings by 2029, requiring 16.0% yearly revenue growth and a $158.9 million earnings increase from $241.6 million today, while some optimistic analysts assume revenue of about US$2,600,000,000 and earnings of about US$695,000,000 by 2029. The company's forecasts yield a CA$14.86 fair value, a 29% upside to its current price.

Gold prices rebounded today, supported by falling oil prices and a weaker dollar. As of 19:50 Thailand time, spot gold was up 41.81 dollars, or 0.90%, at 4,173.33 dollars per ounce, while COMEX December gold futures rose 49.60 dollars, or 1.19%, to 4,206.60 dollars per ounce. Meanwhile, global crude oil prices tumbled more than 1%, with Brent crude falling below 103 dollars per barrel and West Texas crude dropping below 91 dollars per barrel, after President Donald Trump confirmed via Truth Social that the United States will not attack Iran before the November 3 midterm elections and that talks with Iran are making progress. At the same time, investors increased their bets that the Fed will hold interest rates steady at its October meeting, after the U.S. services index fell to 54.9 in September, below expectations of 55.2 and down from 55.4 in August. The CME Group's FedWatch Tool indicates that investors assign an 80.6% probability that the Fed will keep rates at 3.75-4.00% at its October meeting, and a 70.2% probability that the Fed will raise rates by 0.25% to 4.00-4.25% at its December meeting. Investors are watching next week's releases of the consumer price index and producer price index ahead of the Fed's monetary policy meeting on October 27-28.