Missiles, Munitions & Energetics

101.5+1.5%All 102.7 +2.7%

Modern wars aren't won by how advanced your weapons are. They're won by who can keep firing longer. Ukraine and the Middle East just exposed a shocking truth: the West is burning through missiles and shells many times faster than it can build them. This is the story of an industry that became the bottleneck of global security.

Theme index · base 100 · USD total return

Why is Missiles, Munitions & Energetics moving?

Latest
▲4

Record multi-year missile deals lock in years of restocking demand

  • Record multi-year missile contracts lock in years of demand Raytheon won a five-year AMRAAM deal worth up to $20.7 billion and Navy SM-6/SM-3 contracts worth up to $30.7 billion. These long-term orders give RTX and its suppliers years of steady work and justify factory expansion.

    This is the core new force: concrete multi-year awards that lock in missile demand for years.

  • Subcontracts scale interceptor production across supply chain Boeing won a $14.7 billion Lockheed contract to triple PAC-3 MSE seeker output, and L3Harris won over $6 billion to expand THAAD propulsion. These awards push money to subcontractors and add factory capacity for interceptors.

    Shows the production ramp is spreading to key suppliers, not just prime contractors.

  • Defense bill adds $6.3B for munitions and multiyear authority The FY2026 defense appropriations agreement includes over $6.3 billion for 13 critical munitions and grants multiyear procurement authority for eight programs. This gives RTX and peers more predictable funding to expand missile production.

    Government funding and procurement authority directly support missile makers' ability to invest and scale.

  • Lockheed raises guidance on record $230B backlog Lockheed Martin lifted full-year sales and profit guidance after a record $230 billion backlog, up 38% year over year, driven by $65 billion in new orders including a $35 billion THAAD deal. This confirms strong demand and improving execution.

    A prime contractor's raised guidance and record backlog signal the theme's demand is translating into financial results.

News & notes moving Missiles, Munitions & Energetics
United States
Missiles & Precision-Guided Munitions▲

Jim Cramer Recommends Staged Buying in L3Harris After Q2 Beat

Jim Cramer said he likes L3Harris Technologies and advised investors to build a position gradually rather than trying to pick a bottom, speaking during the October 7 lightning round of Mad Money. Cramer suggested buying in increments, using a $230 stock divided by 10 as a $23 stock, buying the first tranche at 23 and adding down to 20. The comments followed L3Harris's second-quarter results, which showed orders of $7.3 billion, a book-to-bill ratio of 1.2x, and a record backlog of $42 billion. Revenue rose 8% to approximately $5.9 billion, diluted EPS climbed 28% to $3.13, and free cash flow increased 37% to $771 million. Missile Solutions revenue grew 14% to approximately $1.05 billion, while Communications & Spectrum Dominance operating margin rose to 26.9% from 24.6%. Cramer's interest comes even as L3Harris trades at approximately 18.7x forward earnings, above Lockheed Martin at 16.5x and Northrop Grumman at 16.6x, and as hedge fund holders slipped to 56 in Q2 from 59 in Q1.
About megatrends
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Defense Primes — United States ▲Capital
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Defense Electronics, EW & Sensors ▲Capital
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Missiles & Precision-Guided Munitions ▲Capital
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Space Defense & Missile Warning ▲Capital
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Missiles, Munitions & Energetics ▲Capital
Read original ↗
Insider Monkey·12hRead more →
United States
Missiles & Precision-Guided Munitions▲impact 4

Raytheon Wins Navy Missile Contracts Worth Up To $30.7 Billion

Raytheon, an RTX business, has secured multi-year U.S. Navy contracts worth up to US$24.40 billion for Standard Missile-6 interceptors and up to US$6.30 billion for Standard Missile-3 Block IB interceptors, alongside additional awards tied to rising global missile defense demand. The long-term missile production and sustainment deals deepen RTX's role in critical air and missile defense infrastructure and reinforce its extensive backlog. The five-year Standard Missile 6 contract in particular supports RTX's backlog-driven investment case and ties into management's plan to spend about US$10.0 billion to US$10.5 billion in 2026 on engineering and capital projects aimed at easing missile capacity constraints and improving margins over time. RTX's narrative projects $112.3 billion in revenue and $10.9 billion in earnings by 2029, requiring 6.3% yearly revenue growth and a $3.2 billion earnings increase from $7.7 billion today. Three Simply Wall St community fair value estimates for RTX span roughly US$215.80 to US$234.82 per share, with the forecasts implying a $234.82 fair value and a 27% upside to the current price.
About megatrends
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Missiles & Precision-Guided Munitions ▲Demand
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Defense Primes — United States ▲Demand
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Missiles, Munitions & Energetics ▲Demand
RTX · Demand · Positive Raytheon won multi-year U.S. Navy contracts worth up to $30.7B for SM-6 and SM-3 Block IB interceptors, deepening its missile defense backlog.
RTX · Capital · Positive The contracts support RTX's backlog-driven investment case and its plan to spend ~$10-10.5B in 2026 on engineering and capital projects to ease missile capacity constraints and improve margins.
Read original ↗
Simply Wall St·1dRead more →
United States
Missiles & Precision-Guided Munitions▲2impact 4

RTX Wins $20.7 Billion AMRAAM Contract as Cramer Flags Commercial Aviation Risk

RTX's Raytheon business announced an AMRAAM production contract valued at up to $20.7 billion on September 28, covering five years with two option years and supporting a substantial increase in missile production. The maximum contract value should not be confused with revenue already earned. RTX also reported second-quarter sales of approximately $24.7 billion, up 14%, and adjusted earnings per share of $1.89, up 21%, with a backlog of $289 billion split between $170 billion in commercial orders and $119 billion in defense orders, and management raised its full-year adjusted EPS outlook to $7.10 - $7.25 from $6.70 - $6.90. On Mad Money, Jim Cramer said RTX keeps getting contract after contract despite fears that the defense budget has peaked, but he warned that weakness in commercial aerospace, where airlines could cut plane purchases if oil stays high, remains a complication. Pratt & Whitney's latest quarterly commercial aftermarket sales rose 25% even as commercial original-equipment sales fell 8%, and RTX continues to absorb costs from the Pratt & Whitney powder-metal issue, with its second-quarter filing estimating an approximately $700 million cash impact in 2026. At approximately 24.9x forward earnings, RTX traded below GE Aerospace's 36.9x but above Lockheed Martin's 16.6x, while 92 hedge funds held the stock in the second quarter versus 95 in the first, and short interest stood at 1.01% of the float.
About megatrends
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Defense Primes — United States ▲Demand
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Missiles & Precision-Guided Munitions ▲Demand
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Missiles, Munitions & Energetics ▲Demand
Aerospace & Aviation › Aircraft Engines & Propulsion Demand
RTX · Capital · Positive Q2 sales rose 14% to ~$24.7B, adjusted EPS up 21% to $1.89, and management raised full-year adjusted EPS guidance to $7.10-$7.25.
RTX · Demand · Positive Raytheon won a $20.7 billion AMRAAM production contract covering five years with two option years, supporting a substantial increase in missile production.
RTX · Supply · Negative RTX continues to absorb costs from the Pratt & Whitney powder-metal issue, with an estimated ~$700 million cash impact in 2026.
Read original ↗
Insider Monkey·1dRead more →
United StatesAustraliaIndia
Missiles & Precision-Guided Munitions▲

Lockheed Martin's AIM-260 Missile Gains Traction After Pentagon Framework Agreement

Lockheed Martin Corp. has secured a key framework agreement with the Pentagon for its AIM-260 Joint Advanced Tactical Missile, positioning the company to ramp up production and delivery timelines for the advanced air dominance missile. The framework could provide multiyear revenue visibility if a proposed procurement contract secures Congressional approval, and Australia has announced plans to invest around A$736 million to equip the Royal Australian Air Force with the JATM. Lockheed Martin's partnership with Raytheon, The Javelin Joint Venture, signed an MOU with Tata Advanced Systems to explore co-production of the Javelin All Up Round missile system in India. The stock traded at $505.50 by October 1 closing, stretching Lockheed's 2026 year-to-date return to 4.51%, with a market capitalization of $124.19 billion and a trailing P/E ratio of 19.84x. Hedge fund ownership declined from 83 funds in Q1 2026 to 75 funds in the following quarter, while State Street Corporation held 32.98 million shares, or 14.29% ownership, as of June 30.
About megatrends
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Missiles & Precision-Guided Munitions ▲Demand
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Missiles, Munitions & Energetics ▲Demand
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Defense Primes — United States ▲Demand
LMT · Demand · Positive Pentagon framework agreement for AIM-260 JATM plus Australia's A$736M investment gives Lockheed concrete orders and multiyear revenue visibility.
Tata Advanced Systems Limited · Demand · Positive Tata Advanced Systems signed an MOU with the Javelin Joint Venture to explore co-production of Javelin missiles in India.
Javelin Joint Venture (Raytheon/Lockheed Martin) · Demand · Positive The Javelin Joint Venture signed an MOU with Tata Advanced Systems to explore co-production of the Javelin All Up Round in India.
Read original ↗
Insider Monkey·2dRead more →
United States
Missiles & Precision-Guided Munitions▲

RTX Wins $11.6 Million Navy Contract Modification for RAM Missile Spare Parts

RTX Corporation received an $11.6 million Navy contract modification for spare Seeker Head Assemblies supporting RAM Block 1/2 guided missile round packs, with work extending through December 2029. The award reflects recurring sustainment demand tied to the Rolling Airframe Missile program, which provides ships with short-range defense against anti-ship missiles and other airborne threats. RTX's Raytheon business has a long-standing role in the RAM program, supporting continued production and sustainment of the system. Beyond RAM, RTX holds a broad portfolio of missile defense and precision weapons serving U.S. and international customers, and growing efforts to replenish missile inventories and modernize naval fleets could create additional opportunities. Shares of RTX have surged 11.1% in the past year against the industry's 20.6% decline, and the stock carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).
About megatrends
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Missiles & Precision-Guided Munitions ▲Demand
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Defense Primes — United States ▲Demand
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Missiles, Munitions & Energetics ▲Demand
RTX · Demand · Positive RTX won an $11.6M Navy contract modification for RAM missile spare Seeker Head Assemblies, reflecting recurring sustainment demand.
Read original ↗
Zacks Investment Research·2dRead more →
United States
Missiles & Precision-Guided Munitions▲

Boeing Wins $14.7b Lockheed Martin PAC-3 Seeker Contract

Boeing has secured an undefinitized contract worth about US$14.7b from Lockheed Martin to scale PAC-3 Missile Segment Enhancement seeker production over a seven year period. The award comes as Boeing shares closed at US$188.32, with a 90 day share price return down 15.59%, a year to date share price return down 17.32%, and a one year total shareholder return down 16.42%. On the operating side, Commercial Airplanes narrowed its operating margin from negative 5.1% to negative 2.7% on 171 deliveries against 150, while the 737 is transitioning to 47 per month from 38 a year ago, with a fourth Everett line activated in July and management targeting 52 next year. A Simply Wall St narrative pegs Boeing's fair value at $160.01, implying the stock is 17.7% overvalued, while the firm's discounted cash flow model points to a future cash flow value of $376.49.
About megatrends
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Defense Primes — United States ▲Demand
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Missiles & Precision-Guided Munitions ▲Demand
Aerospace & Aviation › Airframe OEMs ▲Demand
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Missiles, Munitions & Energetics ▲Demand
BA · Demand · Positive Boeing won a ~$14.7b Lockheed Martin contract to scale PAC-3 MSE seeker production over seven years.
BA · Capital · Positive Commercial Airplanes narrowed operating margin to negative 2.7% on 171 deliveries and 737 output is rising toward 52/month.
LMT · Demand · Positive Lockheed Martin awarded Boeing the PAC-3 MSE seeker contract, supporting its PAC-3 missile production.
Simply Wall St · Capital · Neutral Simply Wall St narrative pegs Boeing fair value at $160.01 (17.7% overvalued) with a DCF value of $376.49.
Read original ↗
Simply Wall St·3dRead more →
United StatesCanadaGermany
Missiles & Precision-Guided Munitions▲

Raytheon Wins $24.4 Billion SM-6 Contract as Lilly, SAP, IBM and CN Make News

Raytheon, an RTX business, has secured a five-year contract with two additional option years valued at up to $24.4 billion for Standard Missile-6 interceptors for the U.S. Navy. The U.S. FDA approved an additional indication for Eli Lilly's Jaypirca, or pirtobrutinib, allowing its use as a first-line treatment for adult patients with previously untreated chronic lymphocytic leukemia or small lymphocytic lymphoma without a known 17p deletion, based on the BRUIN CLL-313 trial where progression-free survival was significantly improved with a hazard ratio of 0.20 and a p value below 0.0001. SAP SE agreed to acquire TechWolf, an AI work intelligence platform provider, in a deal expected to close in the fourth quarter of 2026 subject to regulatory approval, with terms not disclosed. Hagens Berman is investigating potential securities law violations by IBM after CEO Arvind Krishna previewed disappointing second-quarter 2026 results on July 14, 2026, sending IBM shares down 25% in one day and erasing over $68 billion in market capitalization. Canadian National Railway set a new quarterly record for grain movement, moving 7.94 million metric tonnes of grain from Western Canada in its third quarter, surpassing the previous record of 7.48 million metric tonnes set in 2020.
About megatrends
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Missiles & Precision-Guided Munitions ▲Demand
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Defense Primes — United States ▲Demand
RTX · Demand · Positive Raytheon won a five-year contract worth up to $24.4 billion for Standard Missile-6 interceptors for the U.S. Navy.
CNI · Demand · Positive Set a new quarterly record for grain movement, moving 7.94 million metric tonnes from Western Canada in Q3.
IBM · Capital · Negative Hagens Berman investigating potential securities law violations after CEO previewed disappointing Q2 2026 results, sending shares down 25%.
LLY · Regulation · Positive FDA approved an additional first-line indication for Jaypirca in previously untreated CLL/SLL.
SAP.XETRA · Capital · Positive SAP agreed to acquire AI work intelligence platform provider TechWolf.
Read original ↗
PR Newswire·3dRead more →
United States
Missiles, Munitions & Energetics▲

Federal Ammunition, Mossberg and Palladyne AI to Jointly Develop SwarmShot Counter-Drone System

Federal Ammunition, Mossberg and Palladyne AI Corp. announced the joint development of SwarmShot, a modular autonomous airborne counter-unmanned aircraft system designed to turn compatible drones into reusable air-to-air interceptors operating as a collaborative kinetic defensive swarm. SwarmShot will combine Federal's specialized counter-UAS shotshell ammunition, a lightweight Mossberg weapon module purpose-engineered for airborne operation, and Palladyne AI's IntelliSwarm autonomy system, which pairs BRAIN avionics with SwarmOS collaborative autonomy software. The system will first be developed as a modular mission add-on for Gremlin-X, Palladyne AI's Group 1 quadcopter mini-bomber, after which the companies plan to offer SwarmShot to other manufacturers as an integration kit for compatible unmanned aircraft. Federal will lead ammunition design and terminal-effect optimization, drawing on its recent U.S. Army counter-UAS ammunition contract, while Mossberg leads the airborne weapon module and Palladyne AI leads UAS integration, fire control, terminal-intercept autonomy and multi-interceptor coordination. The effort is a defensive application of Palladyne AI's predictive autonomy collaborative swarming capability, recently deployed with the U.S. Army at Project Convergence Capstone 6 and other Army exercises. Development schedules, potential customer engagements and financial terms were not disclosed.
About megatrends
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Autonomous Systems & Counter-Drone ▲Technology
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Counter-UAS / Counter-Drone ▲Technology
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Loitering Munitions & Combat UAS ▲Technology
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Missiles, Munitions & Energetics ▲Technology
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Defense Software & C4ISR ▲Technology
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Missiles & Precision-Guided Munitions Technology
PDYN · Technology · Positive Palladyne AI leads UAS integration, fire control and terminal-intercept autonomy for the jointly developed SwarmShot counter-drone system.
Mossberg · Technology · Positive Mossberg leads the lightweight airborne weapon module purpose-engineered for the SwarmShot system.
Read original ↗
Business Wire·3dRead more →
United States
Missiles & Precision-Guided Munitions▲impact 4

Lockheed Martin Lifts Full-Year Guidance After Record $230 Billion Backlog

Lockheed Martin raised its full-year sales and profit guidance after reporting strong second-quarter fiscal 2026 results and a record backlog of $230 billion. Sales rose 11% from the prior year to $20.1 billion, and net earnings per share came in at $7.94 versus $1.46 a year earlier, when the company was hit by a $1.6 billion charge tied to its Aeronautics unit and helicopter programs that did not repeat. The backlog was up 38.3% year-over-year, an increase of $36.8 billion from six months ago, driven by $65 billion in new orders during the quarter, including a $35 billion multi-year contract for THAAD interceptors. Lockheed now expects full-year sales of $79.75 billion to $81.75 billion, up from an initial range of $77.5 billion to $80 billion and above analysts' average estimate of $79.14 billion, with full-year EPS of $29.95 to $30.65 against earlier forecasts of $29.35 to $30.25 and Wall Street's $29.90. The stock trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 16.16, below the sector median of 18.97, below peer RTX at 24.57, and below its own five-year average of 17.79, with investors watching how the F-35 maker delivers on its third-quarter results expected later this month.
About megatrends
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Missiles & Precision-Guided Munitions ▲Demand
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Defense Primes — United States ▲Demand
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Missiles, Munitions & Energetics ▲Demand
LMT · Capital · Positive Lockheed raised full-year sales and EPS guidance after strong Q2 results and record $230B backlog.
LMT · Demand · Positive Record $230B backlog driven by $65B in new orders including a $35B multi-year THAAD interceptor contract.
Read original ↗
Insider Monkey·4dRead more →
United StatesItaly
Missiles, Munitions & Energetics▲

Avio USA Breaks Ground on First U.S. Solid Rocket Motor Plant in Virginia

Avio USA broke ground on its first U.S. manufacturing facility, an approximately 900,000-square-foot solid rocket motor plant in Hurt, Virginia, that will add significant domestic capacity for U.S. missile and munitions production. Located at the Southern Virginia Multimodal Park, the facility will give Avio USA the capacity to produce thousands of solid rocket motors annually for U.S. tactical missile programs, and the company expects to create roughly 1,500 high-quality technical jobs in Southern Virginia. Avio USA is a subsidiary of Avio S.p.A., the Rome-based rocket and space propulsion group, and operates under a DCSA Special Security Agreement; CEO James Syring said the goal is to be an independent, open-source merchant supplier able to support multiple customers and programs. HITT Contracting is leading construction as general contractor, with completion expected by late 2028 and production anticipated to begin in early 2029, supporting solid rocket motor requirements across the U.S. defense industry, including programs for Lockheed Martin and Raytheon. Avio CEO Giulio Ranzo said the successful completion of the company's capital raise provided the resources for the investment, which will expand U.S. solid rocket motor manufacturing capacity and establish a lasting American presence for Avio.
About megatrends
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Missiles, Munitions & Energetics ▲Supply
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Missiles & Precision-Guided Munitions ▲Supply
Space Economy › Launch Services & Propulsion Supply
0R9S.LSE · Supply · Positive Avio's subsidiary broke ground on a 900,000-sq-ft U.S. solid rocket motor plant, adding thousands of motors of annual capacity funded by its completed capital raise.
HITT Contracting · · Neutral HITT Contracting is named as general contractor leading construction, but no financial or business impact is detailed.
Read original ↗
Avio S.p.A.·4dRead more →
United States
Missiles & Precision-Guided Munitions▲2impact 4

Boeing wins contract worth up to $14.7 billion from Lockheed for PAC-3 MSE seeker work

Boeing announced on the 5th that it has been awarded a seven-year contract worth about $14.7 billion from Lockheed Martin for the expanded production and delivery of seekers, the guidance units, for the PAC-3 Missile Segment Enhancement, or MSE, hit-to-kill interceptor. Under the contract, Boeing will be able to triple its production of PAC-3 MSE seekers. The PAC-3 MSE is a hit-to-kill interceptor used in the Patriot air defense system to intercept ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and aircraft. Lockheed announced in January that it had signed a seven-year framework agreement with the U.S. Department of Defense to raise annual production capacity for PAC-3 interceptors from about 600 to 2,000, and the latest contract is part of that production expansion. Demand for interceptors has surged as conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine strain U.S. weapons stockpiles, and the U.S. Army in July awarded Lockheed a contract worth up to $58.6 billion to expand PAC-3 missile production. Industry executives, however, warn that Congress has not yet approved the funding needed for these contracts, and contractors may be unable to make large investments in parts and facilities until lawmakers act.
About megatrends
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Missiles & Precision-Guided Munitions ▲Demand
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Defense Primes — United States ▲Demand
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Missiles, Munitions & Energetics ▲Demand
BA · Demand · Positive Boeing awarded a seven-year contract worth up to $14.7 billion from Lockheed Martin to triple PAC-3 MSE seeker production.
LMT · Demand · Positive Lockheed's PAC-3 interceptor production expansion (600 to 2,000 annually) drives the seeker contract awarded to Boeing.
Read original ↗
ロイター·5dRead more →
North KoreaJapan
Missiles & Precision-Guided Munitions

North Korea fires 1,000 km intermediate-range missile, Kim Jong Un oversees test

North Korea's Korean Central News Agency reported that the ballistic missile North Korea tested on Saturday, October 3, flew approximately 1,000 kilometers, with Kim Jong Un, the country's supreme leader, overseeing the test himself. KCNA stated that the missile was an intermediate-range ballistic missile, launched from an area in eastern North Korea, and was able to strike its designated target. The test was aimed at training personnel operating a hypersonic strategic weapons system, as well as assessing the reliability and maneuverability of North Korea's deterrence capability. Kim Jong Un said the test was intended to accelerate the development of the country's nuclear deterrence capability, stressing that North Korea has always made its position on this matter clear. Meanwhile, Japan's Ministry of Defense said it detected the missile launch at around 6:30 a.m. on Saturday, October 3, and that the missile fell into waters outside Japan's exclusive economic zone, with no reports of damage or injuries.
About megatrends
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Missiles & Precision-Guided Munitions Geopolitics
Read original ↗
InfoQuest·7dRead more →
United StatesPoland
Missiles & Precision-Guided Munitions▲impact 4

RTX Wins $6.3 Billion Munitions Boost in FY2026 Defense Bill

The FY2026 defense appropriations agreement includes more than $6.3 billion for 13 critical munitions and grants conditional multiyear procurement authority for eight of those programs, a tailwind for RTX Corp. as it scales production of AMRAAM air-to-air missiles, Standard Missiles and Tomahawk cruise missiles. RTX's order backlog reached a record $289 billion by the end of second quarter fiscal 2026. The company will spend $25 million to expand its Niepołomice site in Poland, which delivers tubular assemblies for commercial and military engines, following a $100 million capital outlay announced in April for its Rzeszów facility. RTX closed at $185.01 on October 1 with a market capitalization of about $249.3 billion, trading at a trailing P/E of 33.62x and a forward P/E of 24.57. Hedge fund ownership slipped from 95 funds in Q1 2026 to 92 funds in the following quarter, while BlackRock remains the largest institutional stakeholder with 110.53 million shares, or 8.20% ownership.
About megatrends
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Defense Primes — United States ▲Demand
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Missiles & Precision-Guided Munitions ▲Demand
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Missiles, Munitions & Energetics ▲Demand
Aerospace & Aviation › Aircraft Engines & Propulsion Demand
RTX · Demand · Positive FY2026 defense bill includes over $6.3 billion for 13 critical munitions and multiyear procurement authority, boosting RTX's AMRAAM, Standard Missile and Tomahawk programs.
RTX · Capital · Positive RTX will spend $25 million to expand its Niepołomice site in Poland, following a $100 million capital outlay for its Rzeszów facility.
Read original ↗
Insider Monkey·7dRead more →
United States
Missiles & Precision-Guided Munitions▲impact 4

L3Harris Lands Over $6b THAAD Propulsion Contract From Lockheed Martin

L3Harris Technologies has secured an undefinitized contract from Lockheed Martin worth more than US$6b over seven years to expand propulsion output for the THAAD missile defense system. The arrangement follows a prior framework with the Department of War to quadruple THAAD propulsion production and includes both a new Solid Rocket Boost Motor facility and added Liquid Divert and Attitude Control capacity. The contract lands as L3Harris shares have fallen about 9% over the past month and 22% year to date on a share price basis, though the 3 year total shareholder return is up roughly 53%. The company closed at $236.60, while the most followed narrative estimates fair value at about $342 per share using an 8.4% discount rate, framing the win as one more contract feeding into a broader backlog and earnings story. The story could break if U.S. budget pressure trims space spending or if prime contractor delays slow conversion of the reported US$42b backlog.
About megatrends
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Missiles & Precision-Guided Munitions ▲Supply
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Missiles, Munitions & Energetics ▲Supply
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Defense Primes — United States ▲Supply
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Space Defense & Missile Warning ▲Supply
LHX · Demand · Positive L3Harris secured a >$6b seven-year Lockheed Martin contract to expand THAAD propulsion output, a concrete order feeding its backlog.
LMT · Supply · Positive Lockheed Martin awarded the contract to expand THAAD propulsion production capacity, supporting its missile defense supply chain.
Read original ↗
Simply Wall St·7dRead more →
United States
Missiles & Precision-Guided Munitions▲2impact 4

US Navy orders multi-year SM-6 interceptor missile contract from Raytheon worth up to $24.4 billion

The US Navy has placed a multi-year contract with Raytheon, a unit of US defense giant RTX, to produce the Standard Missile 6 (SM-6) interceptor. The contract is worth up to $24.4 billion. It covers five years with an option to extend for another two, aiming to ensure a stable and reliable supply of the SM-6, which can carry out both strike and missile defense missions. The deal is part of a series of large weapons contracts pursued this year as the US Department of Defense seeks to replenish ammunition stockpiles depleted by conflicts in the Middle East and push defense companies to accelerate production. In late September, it signed a $20.7 billion multi-year preliminary contract for Raytheon's AMRAAM air-to-air missile, and in July it awarded Lockheed Martin a $58.6 billion Patriot interceptor missile contract. Industry executives have warned that Congress has not yet approved the funding needed for these contracts, and that defense companies may be unable to make large-scale investments in components and equipment until Congress acts.
About megatrends
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Missiles & Precision-Guided Munitions ▲Demand
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Defense Primes — United States ▲Demand
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Missiles, Munitions & Energetics ▲Demand
RTX · Demand · Positive US Navy awarded RTX's Raytheon a multi-year SM-6 interceptor contract worth up to $24.4 billion, a concrete order for its product.
Read original ↗
ロイター·9dRead more →
United StatesIsrael
Missiles, Munitions & Energetics▲

Kratos and RAFAEL Commit Up to $175 Million to Solid Rocket Motor Venture

Kratos Defense & Security Solutions is expanding its solid rocket motor capabilities through Prometheus Energetics, a joint venture with RAFAEL that will build a state-of-the-art energetics manufacturing campus on an approximately 500-acre site near the U.S. Navy and Army facility in Crane, Indiana. Kratos Defense and RAFAEL have committed up to $175 million in capital for the venture, covering the manufacturing facilities, property, equipment and personnel needed for the planned operations. Following construction and completion of RAFAEL's technology transfer and certification, Prometheus is expected to begin solid rocket motor production in 2027, with Kratos' investment in the venture ramping up during 2026 to support development of the planned manufacturing infrastructure. The new capacity could strengthen Kratos' position in propulsion and rocket systems, adding another manufacturing base alongside its existing Zeus solid rocket motors. Rivals Northrop Grumman and Lockheed Martin are also expanding solid rocket motor manufacturing capacity across their U.S. facilities to support defense and space propulsion programs and strengthen the domestic propulsion supply chain.
About megatrends
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Missiles, Munitions & Energetics ▲Supply
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Ammunition & Energetics ▲Supply
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Defense Primes — United States Supply
Space Economy › Launch Services & Propulsion Supply
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Missiles & Precision-Guided Munitions ▲Supply
KTOS · Capital · Positive Kratos commits up to $175M to the Prometheus Energetics JV to build a solid rocket motor manufacturing campus, expanding its propulsion capacity.
Prometheus Energetics · Capital · Positive Prometheus Energetics, the Kratos-RAFAEL JV, receives up to $175M to build its energetics manufacturing campus and begin production in 2027.
Rafael Advanced Defense Systems Ltd. · Capital · Positive RAFAEL is the JV partner committing up to $175M and transferring technology for the Prometheus Energetics solid rocket motor venture.
Read original ↗
Zacks Investment Research·10dRead more →
United States
Missiles & Precision-Guided Munitions▲

GE Aerospace and Kratos Ignite GEK800 Turbofan Cruise Missile Engine

GE Aerospace and Kratos Defense successfully ignited the GEK800 turbofan cruise missile engine, a fresh data point for investors watching General Electric's defense story. The news lands against a mixed stretch for the share price: a 30 day share price return of 7.21% and a 90 day share price return of 15.22%, alongside a 1 year total shareholder return of 6.08% and a very large 5 year total shareholder return. General Electric now trades only slightly below some intrinsic value estimates while sitting well under the average analyst target, and on the narrative view its fair value sits at $307 against a last close of $317.89, a 3.5% overvalued reading. On the P/E lens the shares trade on 36.8x earnings, above both the 35.6x industry average and the same 35.6x peer group level, and above a fair ratio estimate of 34.7x. The company's reliance on Boeing's production tempo and exposure to tight aerospace supply chains remain the key risks to the wide moat narrative.
About megatrends
Aerospace & Aviation › Aircraft Engines & Propulsion ▲Technology
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Defense Primes — United States ▲Technology
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Missiles & Precision-Guided Munitions ▲Technology
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Missiles, Munitions & Energetics ▲Technology
GE · Technology · Positive GE Aerospace and Kratos successfully ignited the GEK800 turbofan cruise missile engine, a technology milestone for its defense story.
KTOS · Technology · Positive Kratos Defense co-developed and successfully ignited the GEK800 turbofan cruise missile engine.
Read original ↗
Yahoo Finance·11dRead more →
United States
Missiles & Precision-Guided Munitions▲3impact 4

RTX's Raytheon Wins $20.7 Billion AMRAAM Missile Contract

RTX unit Raytheon has secured a multi-year AMRAAM missile production contract worth up to US$20.7b. The agreement supports the Department of War's Arsenal of Freedom initiative to accelerate delivery of advanced air-to-air missiles, and the multi-year award is intended to expand AMRAAM manufacturing capacity to meet large-scale government demand for missile systems. RTX operates as a large US$252.9b aerospace and defense contractor that supplies systems and services to military, commercial, and government customers, so the long-term AMRAAM production agreement fits directly into its core role as a key weapons supplier for US defense programs. The award plugs into an RTX narrative that hinges on converting a US$289b backlog, especially long-duration munitions deals, into tangible revenue and operating profit, and the Arsenal of Freedom scope lines up with earlier commentary on several contracts where missile volumes are expected to rise between 2x and 4x. The key proof point is whether RTX gets AMRAAM output up to the levels implied by this deal while preserving margins, with reported book-to-bill in Raytheon, missile shipment volumes tied to the Arsenal of Freedom initiative, and management's updates on missile capacity within the planned US$10b to US$10.5b 2026 capital program as the metrics to watch.
About megatrends
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Missiles & Precision-Guided Munitions ▲Demand
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Defense Primes — United States ▲Demand
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Missiles, Munitions & Energetics ▲Demand
RTX · Demand · Positive Raytheon won a multi-year AMRAAM missile production contract worth up to $20.7B, expanding capacity to meet large-scale government demand.
Read original ↗
Simply Wall St·11dRead more →
United StatesJapanAustralia
Missiles & Precision-Guided Munitions▲

Lockheed Martin Wins $297M Navy Modification and $724M Japan Aegis Contract

Lockheed Martin Missiles and Fire Control has been awarded a $244.96M firm-fixed-price modification to a previously awarded U.S. Navy contract, adding scope to procure Full Rate Production 2 of F/A-18E/F Infrared Search and Track Block II systems. That modification covers 48 infrared receivers, 45 for the Navy and three for the Royal Australian Air Force, along with 74 processors and 27 inertial measurement units for the Navy, plus test equipment maintenance and lay-in material, with work performed across Florida, California and Pennsylvania and expected completion in February 2031. The Navy also awarded Lockheed a $52.11M cost-plus-fixed-fee modification to a previously awarded contract to incorporate engineering changes into F-35 Lot 18-19 air vehicle production for the Air Force, Marine Corps, Navy, F-35 Cooperative Partners and Foreign Military Sales customers. Separately, Lockheed Martin Rotary and Mission Systems of Moorestown, New Jersey, was awarded a $724M contract modification for the Japanese Ministry of Defense, raising the total contract value from $1.64B to $2.36B. That contract covers delivery of the Aegis System-equipped vessel #1 and ASEV #2 AEGIS Combat System to Japan, with work performed in Moorestown, New Jersey, and Japan from Sept. 29, 2026, through March 31, 2030.
About megatrends
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Defense Primes — United States ▲Demand
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Defense Electronics, EW & Sensors ▲Demand
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Naval Systems & Shipbuilding ▲Demand
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Missiles & Precision-Guided Munitions ▲Demand
LMT · Demand · Positive Lockheed won a $244.96M Navy modification for F/A-18 IRST Block II systems plus a $52.11M F-35 engineering-change modification and a $724M Japan Aegis combat-system contract, adding concrete orders.
Read original ↗
Seeking Alpha·11dRead more →
United StatesIran
Missiles, Munitions & Energeticsimpact 4

Trump denies Axios report on easing Iran sanctions in exchange for nuclear deal

US President Donald Trump has denied an Axios report stating that his administration had offered to ease sanctions on Iran, including allowing access to frozen funds, in exchange for Iran softening its stance on its nuclear program. Trump said via social media that the story was untrue and that he had offered nothing to Iran, and he called on Axios to retract the report immediately. Xinhua reported that the Axios report came after Trump rejected a ceasefire proposal put forward by the Iranian side over the past weekend. The peace deal proposed by Iran called for the United States to halt its maritime blockade of Iranian ports in the Strait of Hormuz, in exchange for Iran reopening the remaining sections of the strait and reviving negotiations over its nuclear program. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on Sunday, September 27, in response to Trump's rejection of the peace proposal, that it was up to President Trump to choose between diplomacy and continuing war, stressing that Iran was fully prepared if war were to break out again and would stand firm against any form of aggression, even if it led to an apocalyptic war.
About megatrends
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Defense Primes — United States Geopolitics
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Missiles, Munitions & Energetics Geopolitics
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Defense Primes — Europe & Asia Geopolitics
Read original ↗
InfoQuest·12dRead more →
IranUnited StatesQatar
Missiles & Precision-Guided Munitions▲5impact 4

Iran Sees Low Odds of War-Ending Deal With US Before Midterm Elections

Insiders say Iran sees little possibility of reaching an agreement to end the war with the United States and reopening the Strait of Hormuz before the midterm elections in November, while talks between the two sides on the sidelines of last week's UN General Assembly made only slight progress. Iran believes there is a high likelihood the conflict will escalate after the US midterm elections on November 3. President Donald Trump told reporters on Monday, September 28, that US representatives are discussing negotiations with Iran through intermediaries but declined to give details, stressing that the matter will end one way or another and will conclude fairly quickly. A US official said Washington will not reach a deal with Iran without resolving the issue of Iran's nuclear program, and that Trump is ready to ease sanctions and unfreeze Iran's frozen assets if Iran shows concrete progress on the nuclear issue. Meanwhile, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, who met last week with Trump representatives Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, remains in the United States for further discussions through intermediaries. Qatari mediators are expected to arrange separate talks with Abbas Araghchi in New York and to hold discussions with the US side on Monday or Tuesday local time. The main issue is refining the proposal for a 7-day opening of Hormuz that Iran put forward last week. Mediators are pushing for an agreement different from the memorandum of understanding signed by Iran and the United States in mid-June, which led to a ceasefire and helped increase shipping through the Strait of Hormuz but collapsed within just two weeks and was criticized by US politicians as giving Iran too much financial benefit, especially through sanctions relief. Iran continues to restrict shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, leaving cargo and oil transport volumes far below pre-war levels. Two sources said the US government has told intermediaries that it wants Iran to give clear commitments on reopening the Strait of Hormuz and to make concessions on the nuclear program. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian reiterated to the UN General Assembly that Iran does not seek to develop nuclear weapons but will not give up its right to develop nuclear technology for economic benefit.
About megatrends
Energy Transition & Power Demand › Natural Gas Value Chain Geopolitics
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Missiles, Munitions & Energetics ▲Geopolitics
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Missiles & Precision-Guided Munitions ▲Geopolitics
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Defense Primes — United States ▲Geopolitics
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Naval Systems & Shipbuilding ▲Geopolitics
Read original ↗
Reuters·12dRead more →
United States
Missiles & Precision-Guided Munitions▲

GE Aerospace and Kratos Complete First Ignition of GEK800 Engine

Kratos Defense & Security Solutions and GE Aerospace announced the successful first ignition of the GEK800 Serial Number 1 turbofan engine on September 21, a milestone in a program the U.S. military has designated the F143-ZZ-100. The test, conducted at Kratos' X-58 facility, achieved a 100% success rate for the development phase and keeps the affordable, high-performance propulsion system on schedule for advanced cruise missiles and uncrewed aerial systems. For Kratos, the milestone supports a Government Solutions segment that posted $379.7 million in Q2 2026 revenue, up 22.0% organically, with Turbine Technologies up 43.3% organically, a consolidated book-to-bill ratio of 1.1x and $2.084 billion in backlog, as the company ramps full-year 2026 revenue guidance to $1.750–$1.810 billion. GE Aerospace's Defense & Propulsion Technologies segment reported $3.4 billion in Q2 2026 revenue, up 16%, and raised full-year DPT operating profit expectations to $1.6–$1.7 billion. Kratos also faces cash conversion pressure, with $11.0 million in Q2 2026 operating cash outflow and $18.9 million in negative free cash flow, while GE's DPT margins face ongoing pressure from investments and inflation.
About megatrends
Aerospace & Aviation › Aircraft Engines & Propulsion ▲Technology
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Missiles & Precision-Guided Munitions ▲Technology
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Loitering Munitions & Combat UAS ▲Technology
Aerospace & Aviation › Aerostructures & Components Demand
KTOS · Technology · Positive Kratos achieved first ignition of the GEK800 engine at its X-58 facility, advancing the affordable propulsion program for cruise missiles and UAVs.
KTOS · Capital · Negative Kratos faces cash conversion pressure with $11.0 million Q2 2026 operating cash outflow and $18.9 million negative free cash flow.
GE · Technology · Positive GE Aerospace and Kratos completed the first ignition of the GEK800 turbofan engine, a milestone for the F143-ZZ-100 military propulsion program.
Read original ↗
Insider Monkey·12dRead more →
United StatesIran
Missiles, Munitions & Energetics▲impact 4

Dollar Near 2-Month High as US-Iran Talks Stall, Driving Oil Higher

The dollar index held steady near a two-month high, supported by a stalemate in peace talks between the United States and Iran, which pushed oil prices sharply higher and increased the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates. As of 11:05 p.m. Thailand time, the dollar index was up 0.24% at 101.210 and was on track for a 1.7% gain this month, which would be its largest monthly increase since June. Meanwhile, investors increased their bets that the Fed will raise rates twice more this year, with the CME Group's FedWatch Tool indicating that investors now assign a 68.1% probability to a 0.25% Fed rate hike to a range of 4.00-4.25% at the October meeting, up from 57.6% a week earlier, and a 55.1% probability of another 0.25% increase to 4.25-4.50% in December, up from 44.1%. In global oil markets, crude prices surged more than 3%, with West Texas Intermediate crude breaking above 95 dollars per barrel and Brent crude topping 108 dollars per barrel, after President Donald Trump rejected Iran's conditional peace proposal to open the Strait of Hormuz and told aides he expected the United States to strike Iran again after the November midterm elections. Investors are also watching several economic data releases this week, including the August personal consumption expenditures price index due on Wednesday, manufacturing figures on Thursday, and the September nonfarm payrolls report on Friday.
About megatrends
Energy Transition & Power Demand › Natural Gas Value Chain ▲Geopolitics
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Defense Primes — United States Geopolitics
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Missiles & Precision-Guided Munitions ▲Demand
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Missiles, Munitions & Energetics ▲Demand
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Defense Primes — Europe & Asia Geopolitics
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Space Defense & Missile Warning ▲Demand
BRENT · Geopolitics · Positive US-Iran talks stalling and expected US strikes on Iran raise Middle East supply risk, pushing Brent above $108.
WTI · Geopolitics · Positive Trump rejected Iran's conditional peace proposal and expects strikes on Iran, threatening Strait of Hormuz supply and driving WTI above $95.
EFFR.MM · Monetary · Positive Stalled US-Iran talks push oil higher, raising the odds the Fed hikes rates twice more this year, lifting the effective fed funds rate.
US-10Y.GB · Monetary · Positive Increased Fed rate-hike bets on the oil-driven inflation risk push the 10-year Treasury yield higher.
Read original ↗
InfoQuest·12dRead more →
IranUnited StatesIsraelQatarLebanon
Missiles, Munitions & Energeticsimpact 4

Qatar may mediate US-Iran talks today after Trump rejects 7-day proposal

Reuters reported, citing sources, that Qatari mediators may hold separate talks with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in New York and with the US side today or tomorrow. The talks are expected to focus on a revised version of the 7-day plan Iran proposed last week, on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly, or UNGA, and Araghchi remains in New York after attending the gathering. It is still unclear who will represent the US side in the talks with the mediators. Earlier, Iran put forward a 7-day proposal stipulating that the US and Israel must end the war on all fronts, both in Iran and Lebanon, unfreeze billions of dollars of Iranian assets, end sanctions on Iranian oil, and lift the blockade of Iranian ports. After that, Iran would allow the Strait of Hormuz to reopen, and both sides would return to negotiations on Iran's nuclear program. However, US President Donald Trump said on Saturday that he had rejected Iran's proposal, stating that Iran wants a deal quickly because it is facing severe economic pressure. Trump also told Axios on Sunday that he expects US negotiators to join further talks this week. Araghchi said on Sunday that mediators had not yet formally conveyed the US rejection to Iran, and that Iran is waiting for a clear and official US position before deciding its next steps. He said Iran's conditions are clear, and that any action toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz would depend on those conditions being met, adding that only a negotiated solution can break this impasse.
About megatrends
Energy Transition & Power Demand › Natural Gas Value Chain Geopolitics
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Defense Primes — United States Geopolitics
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Defense Primes — Europe & Asia Geopolitics
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Missiles, Munitions & Energetics Geopolitics
Read original ↗
InfoQuest·12dRead more →
IranUnited States
Missiles & Precision-Guided Munitions▲2impact 4

Crude Oil Surges Over 3% as Trump Rejects Iran's Proposal to Open Strait of Hormuz

Global crude oil prices soared more than 3% after US President Donald Trump rejected Iran's peace proposal, which aimed to end the conflict in the Middle East and open the Strait of Hormuz. As of 7:09 p.m. Thailand time, West Texas Intermediate crude for November delivery rose 3.52 dollars, or 3.80%, to 95.93 dollars per barrel, while Brent crude for November delivery rose 3.83 dollars, or 3.67%, to 108.15 dollars per barrel. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Iran will reopen the Strait of Hormuz and resume nuclear negotiations with the United States within seven days if the Trump administration agrees to Iran's conditions. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said the conditions include ending what Iran calls US acts of aggression, lifting the naval blockade and economic warfare against Iran, and unfreezing Iranian assets. Meanwhile, President Trump told his aides that he expects the United States to strike Iran again after the November midterm elections, and that the conflict with Iran is expected to end soon after the midterms, after which oil prices will decline.
About megatrends
Energy Transition & Power Demand › Natural Gas Value Chain ▲Geopolitics
Energy Transition & Power Demand › Firm Power & Transition Fuels ▲Geopolitics
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Missiles & Precision-Guided Munitions ▲Demand
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Missiles, Munitions & Energetics ▲Demand
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Defense Primes — United States Geopolitics
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Defense Primes — Europe & Asia Geopolitics
BRENT · Geopolitics · Positive Rejection of Iran's peace proposal keeps the Strait of Hormuz closed and conflict ongoing, pushing Brent crude up over 3%.
WTI · Geopolitics · Positive Trump rejected Iran's proposal to open the Strait of Hormuz, escalating Middle East conflict and threatening oil supply flows, lifting WTI over 3%.
Read original ↗
InfoQuest·12dRead more →
GlobalThailandUnited StatesIsraelIranSaudi ArabiaChina
Missiles & Precision-Guided Munitions▲impact 5

Iran War Closes Two Straits, Sends Brent Up 70%; VLCC Rates Top $400,000

The conflict between the United States and Israel and Iran that erupted on February 28 shut down both the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, key passages for the world's oil and goods, at the same time. Brent crude closed at $103.87 a barrel on September 18, up about 70% since the start of the year, and touched a four-year high of $126, after trading at around $68 to $70 a barrel before the war. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which once carried about 20 million barrels of oil a day, fell by roughly 95%, and war risk insurance premiums surged from about 0.25% to between 3% and 10% of a vessel's value, pushing VLCC charter rates from the Middle East to China to $423,736 a day in early March, the highest level since record-keeping began in November 2005. Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports fell from more than 7.5 million barrels a day at the start of the year to about 2.1 million barrels in the first half of September, a drop of more than 70%, after the East-West pipeline was suspended on September 11 and Aramco halted loadings at the Yanbu port. On the domestic impact, Thailand imports about 57% of its oil from the Middle East, diesel prices jumped from 29.94 baht a liter to 50.54 baht a liter on April 7, and the OECD expects Thailand's GDP growth to fall from 2.4% in 2025 to 1.7% in 2026. The Fed raised interest rates by 0.25% to 3.75% to 4% on September 16, its first hike since 2023, while the WTO expects global goods trade to grow 1.9% in 2026, down from 4.6% in 2025, and the IMF expects the world economy to grow 3.0% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027.
About megatrends
Energy Transition & Power Demand › Natural Gas Value Chain ▲Supply
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Defense Primes — United States Geopolitics
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Missiles, Munitions & Energetics ▲Demand
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Missiles & Precision-Guided Munitions ▲Demand
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Defense Primes — Europe & Asia Geopolitics
BRENT · Supply · Positive The two straits' closure and Saudi export collapse (7.5M to 2.1M bpd) drove Brent up ~70% to $103.87.
EFFR.MM · Monetary · Positive The Fed raised rates 0.25% to 3.75%-4% on September 16, its first hike since 2023, lifting the effective federal funds rate.
WTI · Supply · Positive Closure of the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb plus Saudi export cuts tighten global crude supply, lifting WTI.
US-10Y.GB · Monetary · Positive The Fed's first rate hike since 2023 pushes policy rates and bond yields higher, so the 10Y yield rises.
Saudi Aramco · Supply · Neutral Aramco halted Yanbu loadings and Saudi exports fell over 70%, cutting volumes, but the supply-driven oil price surge boosts per-barrel revenue.
Read original ↗
KTAM·12dRead more →
TaiwanChina
Missiles & Precision-Guided Munitions▲impact 4

Lai Ching-te backs Taiwan joining democracies to develop drones for modern warfare

President Lai Ching-te, Taiwan's leader, said Taiwan needs to tighten cooperation with democratic countries in developing drone technology, which is crucial to waging modern warfare, amid rising military pressure from China. Speaking today at the groundbreaking ceremony for a new drone development center in Chiayi in southern Taiwan, he said that from the battlefields of Ukraine to security in the Indo-Pacific region, drones have become a key fighting force in modern national defense. He called on Taiwan to work with democratic countries to develop a secure and resilient drone supply chain in order to support peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific. His remarks came as the Taiwanese government pushes ahead with military upgrades and higher defense budgets as one of its main policies, after China stepped up military pressure on Taiwan earlier this month. Taiwan's Cabinet proposed adding 145.7 billion Taiwan dollars, about 4.59 billion US dollars, to this year's defense budget. The budget covers the procurement of drones and missile interception systems, including more than 600 surveillance and coastal patrol drones, more than 40,000 coastal attack drones, and more than 100 explosive-laden unmanned boats. Lai said Taiwan has strengths in semiconductors, information and communications technology, and high-precision manufacturing bases that can be leveraged to develop a drone industry.
About megatrends
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Autonomous Systems & Counter-Drone ▲Demand
Robotics & Physical AI › Civil Drones & UAV ▲Demand
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Loitering Munitions & Combat UAS ▲Demand
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Missiles & Precision-Guided Munitions ▲Demand
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Counter-UAS / Counter-Drone ▲Demand
Read original ↗
InfoQuest·13dRead more →
United StatesIran
Missiles & Precision-Guided Munitionsimpact 4

Trump Won't Rule Out Striking Iran Again, Sending Bitcoin Down 1.3% and Nasdaq Futures Down 0.7%

Bitcoin and Nasdaq index futures started the new week on a sluggish note after President Donald Trump signaled he might launch a fresh military strike on Iran before the midterm elections in early November. As of 03:30 UTC, Bitcoin was down 1.3% at 83,324 dollars, with major alternative cryptocurrencies ether, XRP and solana also suffering similar losses. Futures tied to the Nasdaq index, which is weighted toward Wall Street technology stocks, traded down 0.7%. WTI crude oil futures rose nearly 1% to 93.28 dollars, with Brent crude posting a similar gain. Trump said on Sunday he expected the war with Iran to end soon but did not rule out further military strikes, while Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said his country was fully prepared for a renewed conflict and that Iran had offered a seven-day deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz along with a pause in fighting, which Trump rejected. The prolonged geopolitical uncertainty has stoked inflation concerns, pushing the 10-year Treasury yield up 127 basis points to 5.20%, the highest since 2007. Bitcoin had rebounded strongly in the third quarter, rising 42% over the three months and outperforming every major asset class, including the Nasdaq and gold. Analysts are now watching US PCE inflation data, the ISM manufacturing index and nonfarm payrolls, all due this week.
About megatrends
Energy Transition & Power Demand › Natural Gas Value Chain ▲Geopolitics
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Defense Primes — United States Geopolitics
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Missiles, Munitions & Energetics Geopolitics
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Missiles & Precision-Guided Munitions Geopolitics
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Autonomous Systems & Counter-Drone Geopolitics
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Defense Primes — Europe & Asia Geopolitics
BTC · Geopolitics · Negative Trump refusing to rule out fresh strikes on Iran and rejecting the Hormuz deal drove risk-off selling in Bitcoin.
BRENT · Geopolitics · Positive Iran war escalation fears and Hormuz supply threat pushed Brent crude up about 1%.
WTI · Geopolitics · Positive Renewed Iran conflict risk and the rejected Strait of Hormuz reopening deal lifted WTI crude futures nearly 1%.
US-10Y.GB · Monetary · Positive Geopolitical uncertainty stoked inflation concerns, pushing the 10-year Treasury yield up 127bp to 5.20%, the highest since 2007.
Read original ↗
Coindesk·13dRead more →
United StatesIran
Missiles, Munitions & Energetics2impact 4

Trump Expects Further US-Iran Talks This Week After Rejecting Ceasefire Proposal

US President Donald Trump said on Sunday, September 27, that he expects the United States and Iran to hold further discussions this week, just one day after confirming that he had rejected Iran's latest ceasefire proposal. Speaking in a telephone interview with Axios, Trump said, "I expect there will be more talks with Iran this week." Axios reported, citing regional sources, that another round of indirect negotiations between the US and Iran could take place as early as Monday, September 28, though it remains unclear whether the two sides can reconcile their differences. Asked whether he was considering resuming strikes on Iran, Trump said, "I think about it all the time." Earlier, US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner held a new round of indirect talks with Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in New York on Tuesday, September 22. Reports said Iran offered to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and resume nuclear negotiations within one week, on condition that the United States lift its naval blockade, end sanctions on Iranian oil sales, and restore a regional ceasefire agreement. However, Trump rejected Iran's proposal on Saturday, September 26. Araghchi told NBC News in an interview on Sunday that Iran still wants a diplomatic solution even though Trump has rejected the proposal, saying, "Even though we know from President Trump that he rejected this deal, we are still waiting for an official response through the mediators."
About megatrends
Energy Transition & Power Demand › Natural Gas Value Chain Geopolitics
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Defense Primes — United States Geopolitics
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Missiles, Munitions & Energetics Geopolitics
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Naval Systems & Shipbuilding Geopolitics
Read original ↗
InfoQuest·13dRead more →
IranUnited States
Missiles, Munitions & Energetics2impact 5

Iran reaffirms readiness for "doomsday war" with the US but keeps diplomatic channel open

Abbas Araghchi, Iran's foreign minister, confirmed his country's readiness to confront the United States up to the level of a "doomsday war," but said it still keeps the diplomatic channel open so as not to miss an opportunity to build peace, amid a state of war between the two countries that has flared intermittently since February 28, affecting global oil markets, driving gasoline prices sharply higher and intensifying inflation. Araghchi made the remarks in an interview on NBC News' Meet the Press on Sunday, September 27, after the United Nations General Assembly concluded the previous week, saying there was no reason for Iran to return to diplomacy, but that he was still trying to use diplomacy because the opportunity to build peace should not be missed, and stressing that Iran is as ready to negotiate as it is to face any challenge. Earlier, on Friday, September 25, Araghchi proposed reopening shipping routes in the Strait of Hormuz and reviving nuclear talks with the United States within seven days if the Trump administration accepted Iran's conditions. However, recently US President Donald Trump rejected Iran's proposal, which could have led to the Strait of Hormuz being reopened, with Iran heavily obstructing shipping through the strait as the conflict erupted, limiting oil and natural gas exports out of the Persian Gulf. In addition, The Wall Street Journal also reported that, beyond rejecting the deal, Trump said he expected to resume bombing Tehran after the US midterm elections in November.
About megatrends
Energy Transition & Power Demand › Natural Gas Value Chain ▲Geopolitics
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Defense Primes — United States Geopolitics
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Missiles, Munitions & Energetics Geopolitics
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Defense Primes — Europe & Asia Geopolitics
BRENT · Geopolitics · Positive Conflict escalation and rejection of the Hormuz reopening deal keep Brent crude supply risk elevated.
WTI · Geopolitics · Positive Iran-US war escalation and Trump's expected resumption of bombing Tehran threaten Persian Gulf supply, supporting WTI crude.
GASOLINE · Geopolitics · Positive War-driven constraints on Gulf oil flows and already sharply higher gasoline prices support RBOB futures.
NATGAS · Geopolitics · Positive Iranian obstruction of Strait of Hormuz shipping limits Persian Gulf natural gas exports, tightening supply.
Read original ↗
InfoQuest·13dRead more →
IranUnited States
Missiles, Munitions & Energetics7impact 4

Brent surges past $106 after Trump rejects Iran's Hormuz offer

Brent crude rose 1.8% to $106.20 a barrel in Asian morning trading, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate gained 1.36% to $93.67 a barrel, after U.S. President Donald Trump rejected an Iranian proposal linking the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to the resumption of nuclear talks. Iran offered to open the strait and restart negotiations with Washington within seven days if the Trump administration accepted Tehran's conditions. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said intermediaries coordinating the talks had not yet been formally informed of the decision to reject the proposal. The Wall Street Journal reported, citing unnamed U.S. officials, that Trump is considering further military operations and has told his team of advisers about the possibility that the United States could launch a new round of strikes on Iran after the November midterm elections. Previously, on September 25, 2026, West Texas Intermediate settled at $92.41 a barrel, down $2.20, while Brent settled at $104.32 a barrel, down $2.28. Baker Hughes reported that the number of U.S. oil rigs for the week ending September 25, 2026, rose by 3 from the previous week to 455, while natural gas rigs increased by 1 to 135.
About megatrends
Energy Transition & Power Demand › Natural Gas Value Chain ▲Geopolitics
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Missiles, Munitions & Energetics Geopolitics
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Missiles & Precision-Guided Munitions Geopolitics
BRENT · Geopolitics · Positive Rejection of Iran's Strait of Hormuz offer and talk of further U.S. military action pushed Brent up 1.8% past $106.
WTI · Geopolitics · Positive Trump rejected Iran's Hormuz-reopening proposal and is considering new strikes on Iran, raising Middle East supply-disruption risk that lifted WTI 1.36% to $93.67.
BKR · Supply · Neutral Baker Hughes reported U.S. oil rigs rose by 3 to 455 and gas rigs by 1 to 135, a supply-side data point mentioned only as context.
Read original ↗
Kaohoon·13dRead more →
United StatesIran
Missiles, Munitions & Energetics2impact 4

U.S. Stock Futures Dip as Trump Rejects Iran Ceasefire, OpenAI Pauses AI Model Training

U.S. stock futures fell on Sunday evening as markets braced for fresh weakness in technology shares after OpenAI said it was halting development of some advanced artificial intelligence models. S&P 500 Futures fell 0.27% to 7,783.0 points by 19:30 ET, while Nasdaq 100 Futures fell 0.2% to 30,821.50 points and Dow Jones Futures fell 0.3% to 51,994.0 points. Heightened tensions in Iran also weighed after U.S. President Donald Trump rejected a ceasefire proposal from Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end fighting in the Middle East, saying he believes the war will end soon and oil prices will fall sharply, though he raised the possibility of more strikes before the November midterm elections. Brent prices surged nearly 2% in early Asian trade on Monday, adding to Wall Street's concerns that high energy costs will drive up inflation and interest rates. Technology stocks face fresh challenges after a report by AP said OpenAI had paused training of its latest AI models amid several instances of its AI agents going rogue, raising renewed questions about high-flying technology valuations, especially in the chipmaking and cloud computing sectors.
About megatrends
Artificial Intelligence › Closed / Frontier Labs ▼Technology
Energy Transition & Power Demand › Natural Gas Value Chain ▲Geopolitics
Artificial Intelligence › AI Compute & Accelerator Silicon ▼Demand
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Defense Primes — United States Geopolitics
Artificial Intelligence › AI Compute Cloud & Neoclouds ▼Demand
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Missiles, Munitions & Energetics Geopolitics
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Defense Primes — Europe & Asia Geopolitics
OpenAI · Technology · Negative OpenAI halted development of some advanced AI models after its AI agents went rogue.
NVDA · Technology · Negative OpenAI pausing training of advanced AI models raises questions about chipmaking valuations, pressuring NVIDIA.
Read original ↗
Investing.com·13dRead more →
United States
Missiles & Precision-Guided Munitions▲2impact 4

Lockheed Martin Wins $1.2 Billion U.S. Army Contract for PrSM Increment 2

Lockheed Martin has secured a U.S. Army contract worth up to $1.2 billion to produce the Increment 2 variant of its Precision Strike Missile, a next-generation long-range weapon designed to replace the Army Tactical Missile System. The award follows a second successful flight test in August that demonstrated the Increment 2 missile's ability to engage moving maritime targets. The contract is an indefinite-delivery, indefinite-quantity vehicle covering initial procurement, future orders, follow-on production and continued development, so the $1.2 billion ceiling is not guaranteed revenue. It builds on a seven-year agreement signed in March to raise annual PrSM production capacity to 550 missiles, following a $4.94 billion Army contract awarded in 2025. Lockheed's Missiles and Fire Control segment posted $4.1 billion of sales in the second quarter of 2026, up 19% year over year, with operating profit up 24% to $594 million, and its backlog reached $87.9 billion as of June 28, 2026, helping push the company's total backlog to a record $230.4 billion. Lockheed is simultaneously ramping PrSM, PAC-3 and THAAD production, putting pressure on manufacturing capacity and the supply chain.
About megatrends
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Missiles & Precision-Guided Munitions ▲Demand
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Defense Primes — United States ▲Demand
LMT · Demand · Positive Lockheed won a U.S. Army contract worth up to $1.2 billion to produce the PrSM Increment 2 missile.
Read original ↗
Insider Monkey·13dRead more →
United States
Missiles & Precision-Guided Munitions▲2

GE Aerospace and Kratos Complete GEK800 Cruise Missile Engine Ignition Test

GE Aerospace, a unit of General Electric, and Kratos completed a successful ignition test of the new GEK800 cruise missile engine. The milestone advances propulsion systems designed for long range cruise missiles in support of Department of War programs, and highlights fresh engineering and manufacturing capabilities within GE Aerospace focused on high performance, cost focused defense propulsion. The GEK800 ignition ties directly into General Electric's Defense & Propulsion Technologies backlog above US$30b and supports the catalyst around acceleration of next generation engine programs such as adaptive cycle engines and CCA propulsion. For the milestone to matter to shareholders, the next stretch of the GEK800 program needs to hold schedule and convert into volume work, with formal program decisions from the Department of War, a shift from single engine trials to a broader qualification campaign, and signs that GE can fold any eventual production into its FLIGHT DECK supply chain model without adding margin pressure to the wider defense portfolio.
About megatrends
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Missiles & Precision-Guided Munitions ▲Technology
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Loitering Munitions & Combat UAS ▲Technology
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Defense Primes — United States ▲Supply
GE · Technology · Positive GE Aerospace and Kratos completed a successful ignition test of the new GEK800 cruise missile engine, advancing its defense propulsion program.
KTOS · Technology · Positive Kratos completed a successful ignition test of the GEK800 cruise missile engine jointly with GE Aerospace.
Read original ↗
Simply Wall St·13dRead more →
Saudi ArabiaYemenIranPakistanTürkiye
Missiles & Precision-Guided Munitions▲impact 4

Saudi Arabia intercepts 2 missiles and 2 drones from Houthis while joining hands with Pakistan and Turkey to counter threats

The Saudi-led coalition in Yemen revealed that it intercepted 2 guided missiles and 2 drones fired into Saudi Arabia by the Iran-backed Houthi group. The two missiles were headed toward the city of Khamis Mushait, while the two drones were headed toward Riyadh. Civil defense authorities issued warning alerts overnight for the Khamis Mushait and Abha areas, but no alert was issued for Riyadh. The attack came after the Houthis announced a maritime blockade against Saudi Arabia in July, targeting Saudi ships in the Red Sea, creating pressure on global oil supplies and risk to Red Sea shipping routes, while navigation through the Strait of Hormuz remains largely blocked. Amid the situation, military commanders of Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey, which are defense allies, met in Riyadh just a few hours earlier to review the threats Saudi Arabia is facing, after the three countries signed the joint Mecca defense agreement in August, which states that an armed attack on any one country will be considered an attack on all. Saudi Defense Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman said he discussed with Asim Munir, Pakistan's army chief, in Riyadh and confirmed the continuation of joint cooperation to counter attacks under the agreement.
About megatrends
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Missiles & Precision-Guided Munitions ▲Demand
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Counter-UAS / Counter-Drone ▲Demand
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Space Defense & Missile Warning ▲Demand
Read original ↗
InfoQuest·15dRead more →
United States
Missiles & Precision-Guided Munitions▲

Lockheed Martin Receives First Patriot PAC-3 MSE Parts From GM Defense

Lockheed Martin Corporation has received its first shipment of critical housing components for Patriot PAC-3 MSE interceptors from General Motors Company's defense unit, just 22 days after the two companies signed a manufacturing agreement on August 6, 2026. The components, delivered August 28, traditionally take months or years to produce, according to Reuters, as the Pentagon pushes for faster weapons production amid surging global demand for the Patriot missile defense system. The U.S. Army has announced a seven-year agreement worth up to $58.6 billion for PAC-3 MSE production from fiscal 2026 through 2032, supporting Lockheed's plan to raise annual output to 2,000 interceptors. Lockheed plans to invest $8 billion to $9 billion through 2030, modernize more than 20 facilities and add thousands of workers, though the companies have not disclosed the contract's value, expected component volumes, or GM's potential revenue. The initial shipment remains too small to affect either company's financial results by itself, and GM must demonstrate repeatable quality and volume before investors can assign value to the partnership.
About megatrends
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Missiles & Precision-Guided Munitions ▲Supply
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Missiles, Munitions & Energetics ▲Supply
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Defense Primes — United States ▲Supply
LMT · Demand · Positive Lockheed received the first GM-made Patriot PAC-3 MSE components, supporting its plan to raise interceptor output to 2,000 a year amid surging global demand.
GM · Demand · Positive GM Defense delivered its first Patriot PAC-3 MSE housing components under a new manufacturing agreement, opening a defense-supply revenue channel.
Read original ↗
Reuters·15dRead more →
United States
Ammunition & Energetics▲impact 4

Metallus wins up to $995M U.S. defense contract for High Fragmentation 1 Steel

Metallus has been awarded a U.S. defense contract worth up to a maximum of $995M for High Fragmentation 1 Steel. The five-year contract runs through Sept. 24, 2031, and carries no option periods. Funding comes from fiscal 2025–2029 transaction funds under the contract, with the DLA Contracting Services Office serving as the contracting activity.
About megatrends
Critical Materials & Supply Chain › Bulk & Structural Metals (Reshoring) ▲Demand
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Ammunition & Energetics ▲Supply
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Defense Industrial Base — Strategic Materials & Components ▲Supply
MTUS · Demand · Positive Metallus awarded a U.S. defense contract worth up to $995M for High Fragmentation 1 Steel, a concrete order for its product.
Read original ↗
Seeking Alpha·15dRead more →
IranUnited StatesSaudi Arabia
Missiles, Munitions & Energetics3impact 4

Iran ready to reopen Hormuz within 7 days if Trump accepts conditions

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Iran is ready to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 7 days and resume nuclear negotiations with the United States if the government of President Donald Trump accepts Iran's conditions. He stated that if certain conditions are met, the Strait of Hormuz will reopen once 7 days have passed and the talks will restart. Araghchi said the demands Iran has made of the United States are not new and go no further than what was already set out in the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding, which the U.S. president signed. He made the remarks in an interview with reporters on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly, or UNGA. The proposal came shortly after Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian took a tough stance toward President Donald Trump, after the U.S. leader threatened to destroy Iran. Pezeshkian said it is up to the United States to decide whether to end the war that has lasted 7 months, and insisted that the Iranian government has not encouraged the Houthis to wage war against Saudi Arabia, stating that the Houthis must answer for their own actions and that Iran is not at war with Saudi Arabia.
About megatrends
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Missiles, Munitions & Energetics Geopolitics
Read original ↗
InfoQuest·15dRead more →
Saudi ArabiaYemenFranceIranUnited StatesChinaIsrael
Missiles & Precision-Guided Munitions▲impact 4

Houthis fire missiles and drones at Riyadh and Yanbu after Macron sends weapons to help Saudi Arabia

Yemen's Houthi group said on the evening of Thursday, September 24, that it had fired missiles and sent drones to attack highly sensitive targets in Riyadh, the capital of Saudi Arabia, as well as facilities belonging to Aramco in Yanbu, a Red Sea port city. It marks a new round of long-range attacks amid an increasingly intense conflict with Saudi Arabia. Meanwhile, French President Emmanuel Macron said France is preparing to send military equipment to help protect Yanbu, a key industrial and energy hub on Saudi Arabia's Red Sea coast. In other conflicts, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said ending the war that has dragged on for seven months depends on a decision by the United States, while China is pushing all parties to reduce tensions. At the 81st regular session of the United Nations General Assembly, Xinhua News Agency reported that representatives of several countries walked out of the chamber in protest while Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu delivered his remarks during the general debate. Chinese President Xi Jinping said at the White House on Thursday, September 24, that both China and the United States have the capacity and the responsibility to develop and manage artificial intelligence technology for the benefit of humanity, and must ensure that such technology always remains under human control. Meanwhile, U.S. airlines came out against the idea of adding passenger flights between the United States and China after President Xi Jinping proposed that the two countries increase direct flights. U.S. airlines argued that adding flights would further favor Chinese carriers, since they can still use flight routes through Russian airspace. In financial markets, the yield on 10-year Japanese government bonds jumped to 3.115% today, the highest level since August 1996. And Denmark's defense intelligence service warned that Russia may carry out limited military attacks on NATO member states in the coming months, assessing that the risk has increased although it remains at a low level.
About megatrends
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Missiles & Precision-Guided Munitions ▲Demand
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Counter-UAS / Counter-Drone ▲Demand
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Loitering Munitions & Combat UAS ▲Demand
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Defense Primes — Europe & Asia ▲Demand
Saudi Aramco · Geopolitics · Negative Houthi missiles and drones targeted Aramco facilities in Yanbu, threatening the company's Red Sea energy infrastructure.
Read original ↗
InfoQuest·16dRead more →
GlobalUnited StatesJapanGermanyFrance
Missiles, Munitions & Energetics▲impact 4

TISCO Says Era of Capital Competition Will Keep Interest Rates High Through 2028

The TISCO Economic and Strategic Analysis Center, or TISCO ESU, assesses that global financial markets are entering a phase of capital competition, as governments around the world need to borrow heavily to expand defense budgets while private-sector big tech and hyperscaler firms seek to raise enormous sums to accelerate the buildout of data center infrastructure, chip fabrication plants, AI facilities, and power plants. This is pushing interest rates and government bond yields up by roughly 0.60 to 0.90 percent. Komson Prapakpol, head of the TISCO Economic and Strategic Analysis Center, said the United States plans to expand its defense budget from 1 trillion dollars to 1.5 trillion dollars, an increase of 50 percent, while Japan aims to raise defense spending from below 2 percent to 3.5 percent of GDP, the highest level since the period from 1970 to 1980. Germany and France are also accelerating increases in their security budgets. Thanaphat Thanachat, an analyst at TISCO ESU, said the United States has public debt exceeding 100 percent of GDP, or more than 40 trillion dollars, and a fiscal deficit as high as 6 percent of GDP per year, driving its interest burden to double that of four to five years ago. France's public debt has risen by nearly 20 percent of GDP between 2019 and 2025, with an annual deficit of 5 percent of GDP. As for the interest rate path of the three major central banks, TISCO ESU expects the Federal Reserve to raise rates one more time, by about 0.25 percent, at its December meeting, ending at 4.25 percent, and to hold at that level through 2027 before cutting in 2028. The European Central Bank is expected to raise rates one more time, by about 0.25 percent, in December, while the Bank of Japan is expected to gradually keep raising rates until they reach 1.75 percent in mid-2027. The yield on 10-year U.S. government bonds is expected in the base case to hold steady at 5 percent through the end of 2026, but if the Federal Reserve fails to control inflation, the worst case could see the bond yield rise to 6 percent.
About megatrends
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Defense Primes — United States ▲Demand
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Defense Primes — Europe & Asia ▲Demand
Artificial Intelligence › AI Data Center & Build-out ▼Capital
Artificial Intelligence › AI Power & Cooling ▼Capital
Artificial Intelligence › Foundry & Advanced Packaging ▼Capital
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Missiles, Munitions & Energetics ▲Demand
Energy Transition & Power Demand › Grid, Transmission & Power Equipment ▼Capital
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Naval Systems & Shipbuilding ▲Demand
TISCO.BK · Monetary · Neutral TISCO ESU forecasts higher-for-longer rates (Fed to 4.25% through 2027), a macro-rate view from the group's research arm rather than a company-specific event.
Read original ↗
Prachachat·16dRead more →
Missiles, Munitions & Energetics sits inside the Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation value chain — highlighted below.
Defense & Geopolitical FragmentationMSI.LSE
Defense Primes — United StatesGERTXBAGD+4
Defense Primes — Europe & AsiaAIR.PAMitsubishi Hea…BA.LSEHO.PA+21
Naval Systems & ShipbuildingRR.LSELTOD.LSEHyundai Heavy…CW+27
Missiles, Munitions & EnergeticsShaanxi Zhongt…Tellhow Sci-Te…
Missiles & Precision-Guided MunitionsLMT0F08.LSEKRMNNorth Navigati…+3
Autonomous Systems & Counter-DroneAVAVEXA.PABeijing Jingpi…AIRO+1
Counter-UAS / Counter-DroneKTOSONDSAVEXINFOMARK Co. L…+4
Defense Software & C4ISRPLTRMSINOCCACI+23
Space Defense & Missile WarningLHXRKLBChina Aerospac…KBR+11
Defense Electronics, EW & SensorsSAF.PAKEYSAMEHONA+88
Sovereign Supply — Minerals & Reshoring Industrials0A2N.LSEUSARNNCL.BK
Sovereign Critical Minerals & MagnetsMP
Defense Industrial Base — Strategic Materials & ComponentsHWMATICRSHXL+16
Soldier Systems & Protective EquipmentMSACDREAVON.LSESamyang Comtec…

Drag with two fingers to move the chart

Core Secondary