Foreign brokers raise targets on six energy stocks, see petrochemical recovery arriving sooner

Schneider Electric SE agreed to acquire U.S.-based engineering software developer PTC Inc. for $22.6 billion, or €20.1 billion, paying $205 per share in an all-cash deal. The transaction was among a string of major deals reported across sectors this week. Viatris said it will acquire all outstanding shares of Pacira BioSciences for $36.50 per share in cash, an aggregate equity value of $1.65 billion, while CD&R and McKesson agreed to acquire Option Care Health for $32.05 per share, valuing it at approximately $5.8 billion including debt, sending its shares up 34% in early trading Tuesday. Energy Transfer agreed to acquire Vaquero Midstream in a $2.625 billion deal consisting of $1.95 billion in cash and about 33.3 million newly issued Energy Transfer common units, and Cenovus Energy agreed to acquire Athabasca Oil in a cash-and-stock deal valued at about C$5.7 billion, a 14% premium to Athabasca's 20-day volume-weighted average trading price. Canadian utilities Emera and Canadian Utilities agreed to an all-stock merger worth C$14.3 billion, or US$10 billion, creating a combined company with a C$72 billion enterprise value and a regulated rate base of C$45 billion serving roughly 6 million customers. Separately, TKO LLC proposed to acquire Service Properties Trust's entire hospitality portfolio for $2.0 billion, and CCC Intelligent Solutions soared 13% in after-hours trading on a report that GTCR and Elliott Investment Management are in advanced discussions to purchase the car-insurance software firm.

Venture Global has signed a new long-term LNG sales deal with ConocoPhillips while drawing a cut to its Q3 adjusted EBITDA estimate from RBC Capital Markets. The Sales and Purchase Agreement commits ConocoPhillips to buy 1.0 million tonnes per annum of LNG from 2030 for 20 years. RBC Capital Markets reduced its Q3 adjusted EBITDA estimate for Venture Global, citing basis differential headwinds, while maintaining a positive view on the stock. Venture Global shares trade at US$13.16, having pulled back around 14% on a 1 month share price basis after an 87% year to date share price return, with a 1 year total shareholder return of about 40%. The most followed narrative pegs fair value at about $16.67 per share, implying the stock is 21% undervalued, though that view could fray if Calcasieu Pass arbitration outcomes absorb more cash than expected or if LNG pricing weakens faster than analysts currently model.

UBS raised its fourth-quarter Dutch TTF gas price forecast to €75 per megawatt-hour from €62 previously, citing major disruptions to Middle Eastern liquefied natural gas exports. In an October 5 report, the bank said Middle Eastern LNG supply fell by approximately 60 billion cubic metres between March and September, while additional production elsewhere contributed nearly 40 bcm, including 17 bcm from the United States. Asian LNG imports dropped around 9 bcm year-on-year and European imports fell approximately 10 bcm, cushioning the price impact. UBS also lifted its 2027 forecast to €45 from €40, reflecting slower recovery in Qatari LNG exports and continued European efforts to phase out Russian gas. European gas storage remains roughly 15% below seasonal averages, with inventories expected to enter winter at 74% capacity and decline to approximately 25% by spring, and the bank estimates Europe could need around 27 bcm more LNG during winter than in this year's summer months. Under a prolonged disruption with colder weather, UBS sees fourth-quarter TTF prices averaging €90/MWh with potential peaks near €120/MWh, while faster Qatari recovery and milder temperatures could bring prices towards €50/MWh.

BKV Corporation announced that a wholly owned subsidiary signed an equipment supply contract with a Tier 1 supplier for approximately 1,200 megawatts of natural gas-fired power generation equipment for a prospective Texas project. The deal is backed by a cost-reimbursement backstop agreement with an investment-grade hyperscaler covering about 90% of payments through March 31, 2027. The hyperscaler, expected to be the long-term offtaker, materially reduces BKV's early project funding exposure while allowing the company to exit the contract by March 31, 2027 if no final offtake deal is reached. The arrangement reinforces BKV's integrated gas, power and carbon capture model in ERCOT, where data center demand is in focus, and highlights the near-term catalyst of signing firm PPAs. BKV's narrative projects $1.6 billion revenue and $144.1 million earnings by 2029, requiring 18.1% yearly revenue growth and a $153.7 million earnings decrease from $297.8 million today.