Kasikorn says flood statistics only drag Thai stocks down 1%, advises waiting to buy at 1,565-1,580 points

HoonSmart··TH·Read original
3▲11 ▼0Impact / 5
Summary · why it matters

Kasikorn Securities reviewed past flood statistics in Thailand, noting that since 2006 there have been more than 7 flood events, and found that the SET Index delivered negative returns of about 1% over a one-month period, except in 2011 when the great flood sent the SET down 14%. Sectors that outperformed the market were led by ICT and commercial banks, while financials and insurance fell about 2%, and electronics dropped the most at 8%, mostly due to 2011. As for the economic impact, excluding 2011, the monthly effect was in the range of 10 to 50 billion baht, or no more than 0.1-0.3% of GDP. And if assessed from the upside of extending the Khon La Khrueng co-payment scheme by 2 months, GDP estimates could come in around 2.0% plus or minus. Kasikorn Securities estimates the impact of this flood on the market's earnings per share forecast for 2026 to be fairly limited, and estimates the SET Index support range at 1,565-1,580 points, while viewing the decline as an opportunity to gradually accumulate banking, power plant, and electronics stocks, focusing on KTB, BBL, DELTA, and BGRIM. Meanwhile, many analysts view this flood situation, which occurred in late September 2026, as not yet as severe as the great flood of 2011, so panic selling is unlikely. Retail stocks benefit from stockpiling of food and essential goods, namely CPALL, CPAXT, and BJC, and after the water recedes it will be time for cleaning and home repairs, namely HMPRO, GLOBAL, and DOHOME, as well as road repairs, namely TASCO. Initially, state banks and commercial banks have rolled out customer assistance measures. For example, TMBThanachart Bank introduced the "Tang Lak" or "Get Back on Your Feet" measure covering all customer groups. Krungthai Bank introduced assistance measures for retail customers and SME operators, covering interest rate cuts and reduced installment payments, with customers able to express intent to join the program from September 26 to December 31, 2026. And Thai Airways is offering one free ticket change to help passengers affected by flooding in Bangkok and its vicinity.

Impact on assets 13

Consumer Discretionary▲
Digital Finance & Tokenization▲
Bangkok Bank PCL
BBL
▲ PositiveMonetaryrelevance

Kasikorn recommends accumulating banking stocks like BBL, and state/commercial banks are rolling out customer assistance measures amid the flood.

Financials▲
Consumer Staples▲
Berli Jucker PCL
BJC
▲ PositiveDemandrelevance

BJC is named as a retail stock benefiting from stockpiling of food and essential goods during the flood.

Electrification & Mobility▲
Energy Transition & Power Demand▲

Theme Impact 1

Related news

ThailandMalaysia
3

Prime Minister Orders 7 Measures to Tackle Southern Floods as New Wave of Rain Expected Through End of October 2026

Prime Minister and Interior Minister Anutin Charnvirakul, in his capacity as Director of the National Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Command, chaired a meeting of the National Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Command at the C.S. Pattani Hotel in Mueang Pattani District, Pattani Province, to monitor the situation and relief efforts for flood victims in the southern region. Provincial governors from the southern provinces attended the meeting. The Prime Minister said that according to forecasts from the Meteorological Department, many provinces remain at risk of flooding from heavy rainfall expected to cover almost every province in the south, from Phetchaburi Province down to Malaysia, from now until the end of October 2026, with no sign of easing. It is therefore necessary to rehearse and prepare, with emphasis on advance forecasting, preparing shelters to evacuate residents, especially vulnerable groups, bedridden patients and the elderly, as well as safeguarding the food supply chain, including raw materials, fresh food, vegetable oil, gas and seasonings, and coordinating with food and transport operators. Disaster-response machinery, water pumps, pumping equipment, motorboats and vehicles must be prepared in advance. The Prime Minister issued 7 guidelines for preparing to manage the flood situation in the south: monitoring and assessing the situation to designate risk areas and watch points; inspecting and improving drainage systems; preparing personnel and resources through integration between areas; evacuating and warning the public; monitoring, following up and reporting results to the National Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Command, the Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation, and the Ministry of Interior; publicizing clear emergency reporting channels; and establishing readiness centers for each agency to integrate operations in a unified manner.
About megatrends
Climate Adaptation & Water › Drought, Wildfire & Flood Resilience Regulation
Read original ↗
InfoQuest·22hRead more →
Thailand
2

PM orders all provinces to brace for new rain wave, speeds flood relief and monitors 14 southern provinces

Prime Minister and Interior Minister Anutin Charnvirakul chaired a meeting of the National Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Command and ordered all provinces to prepare for a new round of heavy rain, while accelerating recovery in areas where floodwaters have receded and speeding up compensation payments to victims. He instructed provinces with eligible residents to expedite surveys and submit name lists to the Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation so that funds can be transferred as soon as reports are received. So far, assistance has been transferred to 48,600 households, or about 12% of the estimated total. The prime minister also ordered close monitoring of the situation, especially in all 14 southern provinces, as well as Phetchaburi and Prachuap Khiri Khan. The Meteorological Department reported that Surat Thani recorded the highest rainfall at 92.55 millimetres, while Bangkok saw a maximum of 44 millimetres, and southern Thailand is expected to see continuous rain until 14 October 2026, with special vigilance from Surat Thani south to Yala and Narathiwat. The Royal Irrigation Department reported that the Chao Phraya Dam is releasing water at 2,200 cubic metres per second, down from a previous peak of 2,500 cubic metres per second, and that medium and large reservoirs nationwide are about 83% full. It said the Pa Sak Jolasid Dam, Nong Pla Lai Reservoir and Kaeng Krachan Dam require close monitoring. The prime minister also instructed the Ministry of Public Health to plan the transfer of patients from Chao Phraya Abhaibhubejhr Hospital to other hospitals in Prachin Buri province, including military camp hospitals and armed forces hospitals, distributing patients according to each facility's capacity rather than concentrating them at Chakraphong Hospital alone. Next week, about 20,000 participants from 190 countries will attend a World Bank meeting, so relevant agencies were asked to assess and forecast the situation accurately.
About megatrends
Climate Adaptation & Water › Drought, Wildfire & Flood Resilience Regulation
Read original ↗
InfoQuest·1dRead more →
Thailand
3

Government warns of new rain wave October 9-13, speeds up drainage preparations

The government is accelerating efforts to lower water levels in at-risk areas and prepare for a new wave of rain from October 9 to 13, 2026. Ekkaphop Pienpiset, spokesperson for the Prime Minister's Office, said rainfall will be especially heavy from October 10 to 12, particularly in the western region, and that from October 13 onward the South will see increasing rain. Water levels in the Chao Phraya River are trending downward, with discharge through the Chao Phraya Dam at 2,350 cubic metres per second, and the water level above the dam has fallen to 16.03 metres. Areas still requiring special monitoring are Prachin Buri, Nakhon Nayok and Chachoengsao provinces, where widespread flooding persists. Meanwhile, Pasak Chonlasit Dam, managed jointly with Rama VI Dam, is expected to help lower water levels in Phra Nakhon Si Ayutthaya province by about 10 to 20 centimetres in the near term. In Bangkok, 80 communities across 9 districts remain flooded, with plans to speed up drainage on the eastern side so the situation eases within the coming week. The Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation is preparing to transfer the first batch of relief payments to 8,219 households, totalling 68.003 million baht, into their accounts today, after 1,422,167 households registered through the Thang Rath application.
About megatrends
Climate Adaptation & Water › Drought, Wildfire & Flood Resilience Regulation
Read original ↗
InfoQuest·3dRead more →
Thailand
6

Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking to Submit Letter to Prime Minister, Urging Action on Floods and Air Cargo Bottlenecks

The Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking is preparing a letter to the Prime Minister to push the government to expedite preparations for coping with Thailand's flood threat, after the current flooding has affected the public, businesses, especially SMEs, the agricultural sector, and industrial production, particularly the automotive industry and its supply chain in the central and eastern regions, as well as the tourism sector. Dr. Poj Aramwattananont, Chairman of the Board of Trade of Thailand, disclosed that the government must spend an average of 50 billion to 60 billion baht per year to remedy damage from natural disasters, while the water management programme worth about 500 billion baht has private-sector support, but its details must be studied clearly and all relevant parties must be given the opportunity to share their views. The committee also called for faster resolution of air cargo problems, which involve goods worth about 2.42 trillion baht, or roughly one-third of the total value of exports, because Suvarnabhumi Airport is still plagued by congestion and flooding has caused flight delays and cancellations, especially during the year-end tourism season and as Thailand prepares to host the IMF–World Bank Group Annual Meetings 2026 from 12 to 18 October 2026, which will bring together more than 15,000 leaders and executives from around the world. It also proposed that private-sector representatives be included on the National Water Resources Committee and its three subcommittees on water management: the subcommittee driving the water management master plan and key projects, the subcommittee directing water resource management, and the subcommittee developing criteria and innovations for water resource management under the Office of the National Water Resources. Meanwhile, the 14th National Economic and Social Development Plan for 2028–2032 targets Thai economic growth of no less than 3% per year and GDP expansion of 5.5% in target industries, and the committee is ready to help drive this through the Joint Public-Private Consultative Committee mechanism in three phases: Stabilize Today, Transition Now, and Invest for Tomorrow. At the same time, crude oil prices are still rising and the yield on 30-year US long-term bonds has reached 5%, the highest in 20 years, pushing up long-term bond yields in many countries including Thailand in September, which affects private-sector borrowing costs and leaves the baht at risk of weakening.
About megatrends
Climate Adaptation & Water › Drought, Wildfire & Flood Resilience Regulation
Read original ↗
Thunhoon·3dRead more →
Thailand
▲

Yoschanan Unveils 7 Thai Innovations to Fight Floods, Aiming to Help 25,000 Households

Professor Dr. Yoschanan Wongsawat, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Higher Education, Science, Research and Innovation, disclosed that the Ministry of Higher Education, Science, Research and Innovation, together with the National Research Council of Thailand, is deploying 7 Thai innovations to fight floods in real areas, covering everything from early warning and assistance during the event to recovery after the waters recede, with a goal of expanding assistance to approximately 23,000 to 25,000 households nationwide. The innovations are divided into 3 phases. In the preparedness phase before an incident, the Flood Boy and Flood Eye systems from Mae Fah Luang University and Chiang Mai University use solar-powered sensors to measure water levels in real time, analyze risk at the village level, and issue alerts via LINE. They are currently installed as a pilot at 35 locations in 4 northern provinces and are set to expand to 6 provinces, with a target of covering more than 15,000 households. The response phase includes a rescue drone fleet that uses thermal cameras to locate victims around the clock, along with drones that deliver food, medicine, and drinking water with a maximum payload of 50 kilograms, targeting assistance for 1,000 households. There are also portable emergency oxygen canisters for asthma and heart disease patients in areas that ambulances cannot easily reach, and Gatti Bag and Gatti Box survival kits for pets that can support pet care in evacuation centers for up to 7 days. In the recovery phase after the waters recede, there is school furniture made from water-resistant recycled plastic, set to be piloted at 3 to 5 schools in Bangkok, covering more than 2,000 to 3,500 students and staff, as well as AGENT 29 nano-copper spray to eliminate and prevent mold after flooding, targeting more than 1,000 households and 150 agencies, and Clear Soil, a microbial agricultural soil restoration product that helps land return to cultivation in about 1 month, with deliveries beginning in Chiang Rai, Chiang Mai, and Songkhla, targeting assistance for 2,000 households. Professor Dr. Yoschanan said that water masses from the North are still flowing gradually into the Central and Eastern regions and must be monitored, alongside preparations to restore areas after the waters recede, especially the problems of mold and damage to agricultural land. He noted that the research has already been published academically, and the ministry is ready to let the private sector receive technology transfers to increase production capacity and expand the use of the innovations so they reach the public more widely.
About megatrends
Climate Adaptation & Water › Drought, Wildfire & Flood Resilience ▲Technology
Read original ↗
Kaohoon·4dRead more →
Thailand

Chadchart Defends Bueng Khu Bon-Bang Chan Projects as Academically Sound After Higher Cost Than Canal Option Found

Bangkok Governor Chadchart Sittipunt explained that the Bueng Khu Bon and Bueng Bang Chan projects are studies by the Bangkok Metropolitan Administration that apply the monkey cheek concept, not projects directly stemming from royal initiatives. He confirmed that the consideration was based on academic data, drainage efficiency, budget value, and public benefit. After the major flood in 2011, the Drainage Department studied approaches for creating six water retention ponds, with four projects previously halted after public consultation processes. Bueng Khu Bon and Bueng Bang Chan remained as the two projects under continued consideration. But upon reviewing the details, the investment amounts were found to be high, so they had to be compared with other approaches. According to the consultant team's study, the system-wide monkey cheek approach would cost about 11 billion baht, while the approach of improving canals and the drainage system would cost about 6.7 billion baht. The BMA therefore considered improving canals to convey water faster, alongside enhancing the efficiency of Bueng Nong Bon and the drainage tunnel system. On the issue of connections with a real estate company, Chadchart stated that he had previously served as an executive of Quality Houses Public Company Limited, which had filed an objection to a project in the Phatthanakan area through the process prescribed by law. But decisions about the project are the authority of the Bangkok Metropolitan Administration, and the cancellation of the project occurred during the term of a previous Bangkok governor, while he did not hold the position at that time. As for water management principles, an effective monkey cheek must have water retention areas, water intake systems, and appropriate water discharge systems. Bueng Khu Bon and Bueng Bang Chan have a combined capacity of about 1 million cubic meters, while the volume of rainwater in Bangkok is large and spread across many areas, so the entire drainage system must be considered, not just increasing water storage areas alone. Chadchart stressed that the BMA is ready to listen to additional information from all parties. If there is new information, technical proposals, or facts that differ from the data currently used in its consideration, the Drainage Department is ready to examine and review them carefully.
About megatrends
Climate Adaptation & Water › Drought, Wildfire & Flood Resilience Regulation
Climate Adaptation & Water › Pipe, Stormwater & Smart Metering Regulation
QH.BK · Regulation · Neutral Mentioned only as the real estate company that filed a legal objection to a Phatthanakan-area project; the governor notes the project's cancellation occurred under a previous governor, so no clear impact on Quality Houses.
Read original ↗
InfoQuest·4dRead more →