Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing

Phillips 66 closed at $278.18, down 1.21% on the day even as the S&P 500 gained 0.6%, the Dow rose 0.83% and the Nasdaq added 0.64%. The oil refiner's shares have gained 8.93% over the past month, outpacing the 2.1% gain in the Oils-Energy sector and the 1.34% rise in the S&P 500 over the same period. Investors are focused on the company's upcoming earnings report, set for October 28, 2026, with analysts predicting earnings per share of $10.41, a 313.1% increase from the year-ago quarter, on quarterly revenue of $34.31 billion, down 1.92% year over year. For the full year, the Zacks Consensus Estimates call for earnings of $29.01 per share and revenue of $157.49 billion, changes of +350.47% and +15.33% respectively from last year. The consensus EPS projection has moved 18.66% higher over the past 30 days, and Phillips 66 currently carries a Zacks Rank of #1 (Strong Buy), with a Forward P/E ratio of 9.71 versus an industry average of 8.86.

Gevo shares jumped 5.8% in the afternoon session after the renewable fuels producer announced the completed sale and delivery of 10,000 carbon dioxide removal credits through ClimeFi to a corporate buyer. The credits were generated at the company's North Dakota facility, and the transaction supports Gevo's aim to achieve more than $30 million in annual revenue from its carbon business through existing operations. Carbon dioxide removal credits allow corporate purchasers to address greenhouse gas emissions by funding the capture and storage of carbon dioxide. After the initial pop, the shares cooled down to $1.37, up 5% from the previous close. Gevo is down 33.7% since the beginning of the year and is trading 50.8% below its 52-week high of $2.78.

PTT Oil and Retail Business Public Company Limited, or OR, and Bangchak Corporation Public Company Limited, or BCP, announced an increase in retail prices for all standard grades of gasoline, gasohol and diesel of 0.75 baht per litre, effective from 9 October 2026 at 05:00 onwards. Prices for all premium fuel grades remain unchanged. For retail prices in Bangkok and its vicinity, excluding the local maintenance tax, diesel rises from 42.19 baht per litre to 42.94 baht per litre, Gasohol 91 rises from 40.32 baht per litre to 41.07 baht per litre, Gasohol 95 rises from 40.69 baht per litre to 41.44 baht per litre, and gasoline rises from 49.68 baht per litre to 50.43 baht per litre. Products with no price change include diesel B20, unchanged at 37.19 baht per litre, Gasohol E20, unchanged at 35.69 baht per litre, Super Power Gasohol 95, unchanged at 47.79 baht per litre, SUPER POWER X Diesel, unchanged at 50.05 baht per litre, and SUPER POWER X 99, unchanged at 49.79 baht per litre.

Bangchak Corporation Public Company Limited, together with the Ministry of Tourism and Sports, the Department of Tourism, the Designated Areas for Sustainable Tourism Administration, the Thai Hotels Association, and the Thai Restaurant Association, signed a memorandum of cooperation on the management of used cooking oil to serve as feedstock for the production of sustainable aviation fuel, or SAF, through the Fry to Fly project. The project promotes the systematic collection of used oil from hotel and restaurant businesses, alongside a campaign against reusing frying oil. The signing ceremony was held on 5 October 2026 at the Phonbodi Meeting Room of the Ministry of Tourism and Sports. The signatories were Mrs. Gloyta Nathalang, Senior Executive Vice President of the Sustainability Management and Corporate Communications Group at Bangchak; Miss Woratheera Suwannasorn, Deputy Director-General of the Department of Tourism; Mr. Siripakorn Cheawsamoot, Director of the Designated Areas for Sustainable Tourism Administration; Mr. Udom Srimahachota, Vice President and Chairman of the Environment Committee of the Thai Hotels Association; and Mrs. Thaniwan Kulmongkol, President of the Thai Restaurant Association. Miss Natthriya Thaweevong, Permanent Secretary of the Ministry of Tourism and Sports, served as honorary witness. Miss Natthriya said that sustainable tourism requires cooperation across the entire chain, from travel, accommodation, and food to resource and environmental management, and that this project links hotels and restaurants to the aviation sector. Mrs. Gloyta said that sustainable aviation requires cooperation beyond the airport, and that the Bangchak group has more than two decades of experience in using used cooking oil to produce biofuels, starting with biodiesel for vehicles and extending to SAF production using the HEFA-SPK process in line with international standards. Mr. Siripakorn said the cooperation aims to support sustainable tourism in three areas: health and safety, the environment and low-carbon tourism, and the circular economy, which generates supplementary income for communities by allowing them to exchange or sell used oil instead of simply discarding it.

DBS Vickers Securities Thailand said in an analysis that the Thai government is considering cutting excise taxes on biofuels to lower fuel prices and spur consumption. Currently, the excise tax on gasohol stands at 6.00 baht per litre and on biodiesel at 5.953 to 6.92 baht per litre. Raising the share of biofuels in use would help cut crude oil imports and ease the government's burden of subsidising fuel prices, with the Oil Fund now running a loss of about 100 billion baht. With demand for ethanol and biodiesel expected to rise, DBS Vickers has named 11 Thai stocks set to benefit, divided into three groups by business type. The first group is direct producers and distributors of biofuels, namely BBGI, EA, UBE, GGC and TAE. The second group is integrated palm oil producers linked to biodiesel, namely PCE, SMO, APO and VPO. The third group is sugar producers linked to ethanol, namely KSL, KTIS and BRR.

Shares of Thai Oil Public Company Limited, or TOP, rose 2.64% to 77.75 baht at 14:43 on October 7, 2026, on trading value of 1.50825 billion baht, after Krungsri Securities Public Company Limited said TOP still has positive factors from tightness in the oil products market. Protracted tensions in the Middle East are keeping product price spreads at high levels and are likely to support TOP's earnings more than the market previously expected. Krungsri Securities therefore raised its profit forecasts for TOP for 2026-2028 by about 15-36%, while maintaining its buy recommendation and its 2027 target price of 83 baht per share. It selected TOP as its Top Pick in the refinery group, seeing earnings in the post-war period of 2027-2028 potentially improving by about 47-88% from the pre-conflict base. Meanwhile, the Clean Fuel Project, or CFP, remains on track, with full commercial operation, or Full COD, expected in the third quarter of 2028, which will increase crude oil processing capacity and lift margins over the long term. There is also potential for further upside from disputes related to the CFP project if the company receives compensation in the future.

Marathon Petroleum has set a third-quarter refinery throughput target of approximately 3 million barrels per day, comprising 2.82 million bpd of crude oil and 185,000 bpd of other charge and blendstocks. The guidance follows a second quarter in which MPC processed nearly 3 million bpd at 94% refinery utilization, with Gulf Coast operations at 100%, the West Coast at 93% and the Mid-Continent at 87%, alongside Refining & Marketing adjusted EBITDA of $24.84 per barrel. R&M margin capture reached 112% in the second quarter and 108% in the first half of 2026, and the company is pursuing the Robinson project for roughly 10,000 bpd of incremental jet fuel production and the El Paso project to improve specialty gasoline output. For comparison, Phillips 66 reported 96% crude capacity utilization and an 86% clean product yield in the second quarter and expects worldwide crude utilization in the mid-90% range in the third quarter, while PBF Energy guided to third-quarter throughput of 900,000-960,000 bpd, less than a third of MPC's target, with renewable diesel production rising to 18,000-20,000 bpd. Over the past six months Marathon Petroleum shares advanced 80.1%, PBF Energy gained 82.3% and Phillips 66 rose 52.1%, against a 53.1% increase for the Oil Refining & Marketing sub-industry, and MPC trades at a P/E of 7.49 versus the sub-industry average of 8.46.

RPCG Public Company Limited, or RPC, informed the Stock Exchange of Thailand that its Board of Directors, at its 5/2026 meeting held on October 6, 2026, resolved to acknowledge the ruling in the case between Pure Energy Thai Company Limited, or PTEC, a core company of RPCG, and Bangchak Sriracha Public Company Limited, or BSRC. The case stemmed from PTEC's prior fuel purchase and sale agreement and its use of the ESSO trademark with Esso (Thailand) Public Company Limited for 79 of PTEC's fuel service stations. Later, on August 31, 2023, the contracting parties underwent a change in major shareholder structure, resulting in the trademark changing from ESSO to Bangchak and the company being renamed BSRC. On July 9, 2024, PTEC sent a notice of contract termination, but the counterparty rejected it and filed suit against PTEC on grounds of breach or violation of the business cooperation agreement. On May 26, 2025, the Central Intellectual Property and International Trade Court issued a judgment dismissing the case, and on July 8, 2026, the Specialized Appeal Court upheld the lower court's ruling, before the Central Intellectual Property and International Trade Court issued a certificate of finality dated September 8, 2026. As a result of the case, PTEC must recognize income from support payments under the business cooperation agreement amounting to 362 million baht in its third-quarter 2026 financial statements, a significant item affecting the company's operating results for that period.

Refining and petrochemical shares rallied strongly, with PTTGC at 52.00 baht, up 1.75 baht or 3.48%, TOP at 73.75 baht, up 2.25 baht or 3.15%, and IRPC at 3.00 baht, up 0.08 baht or 2.74%. The gains were driven by expectations of tighter refined fuel supply in Asia after Chinese refineries suspended exports of oil products in October 2026 to preserve domestic inventory levels, while PetroChina cancelled some gasoline and jet fuel exports. As a result, the Asian gasoline crack spread rose above 50 dollars per barrel against Brent crude, and the 10 ppm low-sulphur diesel crack spread climbed to above 87 dollars per barrel from around 22 dollars per barrel before geopolitical tensions flared. The situation is a direct positive for TOP, whose core business is refining, and for IRPC, which has an integrated refining and petrochemical business. PTTGC also has its own company-specific catalyst from progress in studying the formation of a joint venture for olefins and polyolefins in Thailand with SCGC, which has entered the confirmatory due diligence stage and is expected to finalise key details within October 2026, with PTTGC to be the major shareholder in the joint venture.

Refinery stocks rose to lead the market at 10:01 a.m., with PTTGC up 3.98% to 52.25 baht, TOP up 2.80% to 73.50 baht, IRPC up 2.74% to 52.25 baht, BCP up 0.94% to 53.75 baht, and SPRC up 0.65% to 15.40 baht, after Saudi Arabia unexpectedly cut its official selling price, or OSP, for crude oil to Asian customers for November. Arab Light crude shipped to Asia was given a discount of 5 US dollars per barrel, or 3 US dollars per barrel more than the previous month, the widest discount since June 2020, contrary to market expectations that the OSP would be raised. KGI Securities (Thailand) views the price cut as aimed at offsetting sharply higher freight costs and helping preserve Saudi Arabia's market share in Asia. This is positive for Thai refinery stocks because it helps lower feedstock costs, especially for IRPC, which uses Arab Light crude in a significant proportion. Meanwhile, Krungsri Securities noted that the Arab Light crude price for delivery to buyers is around 5 dollars per barrel for November orders, the lowest in six years, and is a direct positive for Thai refinery operators, as the lower crude premium drives refining margins higher.

PTT Oil and Retail Business, or OR, has announced a partnership with Bashundhara Group, one of Bangladesh's leading business conglomerates, to bring Cafe Amazon, one of the flagship brands of OR's Lifestyle business, into the Bangladesh market. The plan is to open a total of 8 Cafe Amazon branches in Bangladesh within 2026, covering locations including Bashundhara's headquarters, shopping centres, fitness centres, golf courses, and various lifestyle areas. This partnership combines the strength of OR's brand and its experience in the coffee shop business with Bashundhara Group's business network and understanding of the local market, in order to reduce the constraints of entering a new market, whether in terms of consumer behaviour, locations, customer reach, and building brand awareness in the early stages. OR has also developed menus specifically for the Bangladesh market, such as Brown Sugar Peanut Frappe and Mango Sticky Rice Frappe, as well as The Performance Series for health-conscious customers. This business expansion aims to create a new revenue base and extend the Ecosystem of its Lifestyle business overseas, in line with OR's direction of reducing its reliance on revenue from the oil business. If this partnership model proves successful, it could also serve as a template for expanding the Lifestyle business into other international markets in the future.

TOP's share price closed the morning session on 6 October 2026 at 75.25 baht, up 3.75 baht, or 5.24%, driven by tighter supply of refined oil products after refineries in China reduced or halted exports of refined petroleum products in October 2026 to maintain inventory levels for domestic demand. This immediately tightened supply of refined products, especially diesel and gasoline, in Asia. Supply concerns also boosted the product-to-crude price spread, or crack spread, and pushed benchmark refining margins higher, a direct positive for the profitability of large complex refineries such as TOP. The recovery in refining margins also spurred buying into energy and refinery stocks on the Thai stock market as a theme, including PTTGC and IRPC, supporting positive sentiment for share prices overall.

Marathon Petroleum closed at $433.47, up 2.64% and outpacing the S&P 500's 0.66% gain. The refiner is set to report earnings on November 3, 2026, with consensus projecting EPS of $23.15, a 669.10% increase from the prior-year quarter, on revenue of $32.84 billion, down 8.39%. For the full year, Zacks Consensus Estimates project earnings of $59.15 per share and revenue of $154.8 billion, changes of +452.8% and +14.48% respectively. Over the last 30 days the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate has moved 26.78% higher, and Marathon Petroleum holds a Zacks Rank of #1 (Strong Buy). The stock trades at a Forward P/E of 7.14 versus its industry average of 8.67, with a PEG ratio of 0.13 against an industry average of 0.28.

PTT Oil and Retail Business Public Company Limited, or OR, is pressing ahead with its budget hotel business through a joint venture, Pit Stop Hotel Company Limited, in which OR holds 49% and Centara Hotels and Resorts holds 51%. The project has total investment value of approximately 706 million baht, split between 346 million baht from Modulus Ventures within the OR group and 360 million baht from Centara. The first phase will pilot six model hotels in Phuket, Kanchanaburi, Phra Nakhon Si Ayutthaya, Songkhla (Hat Yai), Chonburi and Bangkok. The pilot branches will gradually open starting in the third quarter of 2027, beginning with Kanchanaburi, Rojana Industrial Park and Hat Yai Airport, which are already under construction. In the second quarter of 2028, openings will follow in Bangkok's Don Mueang area opposite Terminal 2 near the Red Line station, Phuket Airport, and the Jomtien Beach intersection in Pattaya, which are currently undergoing environmental impact assessment. Miss Rajsuda Rungsiyakull, Senior Executive Vice President of Special Business at OR, said room rates start at 800 to 1,300 baht per night. She estimated the budget hotel market will grow about 7.3% from 2023 to 2028, with an EBITDA margin of roughly 40-45% and EBIT of about 20%. The payback period is expected to be around 7-10 years, with a target occupancy rate of approximately 75-80%, and the company aims to expand to 50 locations by 2031, both inside and outside service stations. It will start with the COCO model at the first six branches before expanding into franchising and hotel management services. Mom Luang Pichthong Thongyai, Chief Executive Officer of OR, said that by 2031 service stations will increase from 2,300 to 2,800, and daily customers will rise to 5 million from 3.9 million per day at present. The business aligns with the Asset Optimization strategy, which uses vacant space within the PTT Station network to create added value, driving the OR network toward becoming A Must-stop Destination.

Bualuang Securities said that BCP's sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) plant, the first in Thailand, began operating in May 2026 with a production capacity of 7,000 barrels per day, or 1 million liters per day, and can switch production between SAF and renewable diesel. The main feedstock is used cooking oil, about 40% of which comes from domestic sources and 60% is imported, while the company has long-term feedstock supply contracts with major food and retail operators in Thailand. SAF demand is being driven by increasingly stringent fuel blending mandates worldwide, with the EU starting at 2% in 2025 and rising to 6% in 2030, while Thailand begins with a 1% target in 2026 before increasing to 1-2% in 2027-29 and 3-5% in 2030-32. Global SAF demand is expected to rise from 3.6 billion liters in 2026 to 4.5 billion liters in 2027, although rising supply may pressure margins somewhat going forward. The business's highlight is its profitability, with the SAF spread rising from about 1,000 US dollars per ton in 2025 to roughly 1,300 US dollars per ton in 2026 year-to-date, or about 3 times the spread of conventional jet fuel. The plant generated EBITDA of about 1 billion baht in the second quarter of 2026, and SAF EBITDA is expected at 4 billion baht in 2026 and 6 billion baht in 2027. Even in a worst case where the margin falls to 800 US dollars per ton, it would still be about 2 times the spread of conventional jet fuel and generate 2027 EBITDA of about 4 billion baht. There is also upside from a 43% capacity expansion to 10,000 barrels per day, which is not yet fully reflected in long-term estimates and would be additional upside if the company proceeds with the project. Bualuang Securities maintained its Hold recommendation with a target price of 57 baht and an equal-weight stance on the energy sector. Key issues to watch are the direction of SAF margins as new supply gradually enters the market and clarity on further capacity expansion.

Analysts at several securities firms hold a positive view on Bangchak Corporation Public Company Limited, or BCP, after its sustainable aviation fuel business, SAF, began contributing significantly to earnings. BCP's SAF plant started commercial operations on 21 May 2026, with an investment of about 8.5 billion baht and a production capacity of roughly 7,000 barrels per day, or about 1 million litres per day. In the second quarter of 2026, its average capacity utilisation rate was approximately 6,800 barrels per day, with product sales of about 39 million litres, generating EBITDA of roughly 1 billion baht for BCP, or nearly 4% of total EBITDA. Asia Plus Securities gives a trading view with a target price of 58 baht. Trinity Securities recommends a speculative buy with a target price of 55 baht. Yuanta Securities Thailand has upgraded its recommendation to buy with a target price of 58 baht, and Land and Houses Securities maintains a buy recommendation with a target price of 56 baht. Over the longer term, BCP plans to raise SAF production capacity from 7,000 barrels per day to about 10,000 barrels per day within five years, largely using existing infrastructure. Meanwhile, demand for SAF looks set to grow on the back of Thailand's plan to push SAF blending, which aims to start at 1% and increase in later phases. However, competition for UCO feedstock still bears watching, as it could put pressure on costs.

Refinery stocks are getting a boost from the Singapore reference refining margin, which rose to around 20.5 dollars per barrel in late September 2026 and is expected to hold at high levels. Suwat Sinsadok, managing director of Global Securities, said the fourth-quarter 2026 refining margin will be close to the 20.5 dollars per barrel seen in the third quarter and could reach as high as 30 dollars per barrel given tight global oil supply. He set a target price of 88 baht per share for Thai Oil, or TOP, the most outstanding stock in the group. Sorachai Pitayapruek, a fundamental analyst at Krungsri Securities, said the catalyst came from an attack on the East-West oil pipeline in Saudi Arabia that forced a temporary shutdown, pushing tanker freight rates from more than 10 dollars per barrel to more than 20 dollars per barrel. He expects the fourth-quarter 2026 refining margin to stay in double digits, supported by winter oil storage demand. Third-quarter 2026 earnings for the refinery group are expected to recover clearly, especially TOP, which posted a stock loss of about 7 billion baht in the second quarter of 2026 and may instead book a stock gain. Krungsri Securities maintained a positive investment weighting on refinery stocks, naming TOP the most outstanding with a target price of 83 baht, supported by its Clean Fuel Project.

The Thai stock market index on October 2, 2026 closed at 1,571.62 points, up 7.71 points or 0.49%, with trading value of 71.09 billion baht. Foreign investment flowed out toward U.S. government bonds, which offer lower risk and yields above 5%, while Thai stocks still await third-quarter 2026 earnings. PTT Oil and Retail Business, or OR, sent positive signals as it prepares for a tourism recovery that is driving growth in jet fuel sales. It has also pinned its flag in Phuket and is pressing ahead with budget hotels, gradually opening them in 2027-2028, with a target of 50 locations by 2031. The first phase will pilot six model hotels in high-potential locations: Phuket, Kanchanaburi, Phra Nakhon Si Ayutthaya, Songkhla (Hat Yai), Chonburi and Bangkok, to extend the business and turn PTT Station service stations into safe, standardized overnight stops nationwide. Meanwhile, ITEL won a big project from the Provincial Electricity Authority, or PEA, to organize communications cables across two regions, the central and southern regions, with a combined value of more than 266 million baht, reflecting confidence in its potential and experience in managing communications infrastructure, and positioning it to pursue future telecommunications infrastructure projects. WP completed its share buyback plan as scheduled, repurchasing the full 15,000,000 shares, or 2.94%, for an investment value of 57.08 million baht. CEO Chomkamol Poompanmoung is confident the move will build investor confidence and lift return on equity and earnings per share, while the company proceeds with this year's business plan, targeting LPG sales of 770,000 tons and focusing on expanding the domestic market alongside its rooftop solar business. BA, Bangkok Airways, is passing on something special to thank passengers on the occasion of winning the World's Best Regional Airline and Best Regional Airline in Asia awards from the SKYTRAX World Airline Awards for the 10th consecutive year, with the Lucky TEN campaign, building on the Thank You for 10 Amazing Years campaign launched last September. It invites passengers to join a draw for the right to buy tickets at a special 90% discount, or pay only 10% of the Web Promo (P-Q Class) fare, on five domestic routes, limited to just 200 entitlements, from October 5-9, 2026 only.

PTT Oil and Retail Business Public Company Limited, or OR, has unveiled plans to develop a first phase of six budget hotels together with Central Plaza Hotel Public Company Limited, or CENTEL. OR will hold a 49% stake and CENTEL 51%. Five of the sites are at service stations and one is outside a service station. The first three branches, already under construction, are in Kanchanaburi, Phra Nakhon Si Ayutthaya and Songkhla, and are expected to open in the third quarter of next year. The other three, in Bangkok, Chonburi and Phuket, are undergoing environmental reports and will open in the second quarter of 2028. The six hotels use a combined investment budget of 700 million baht, with construction costs capped at no more than 1 million baht per room. Funding will be split 50% equity and 50% debt. The buildings will be five to six storeys tall, with average room sizes of 18 to 20 square metres and 79 rooms. The company targets a first-year occupancy rate of about 60%, rising to 60–70% in the second year, with a long-term goal of 75–80%. It estimates a gross profit margin of about 50%, an EBITDA margin of 40–45%, an EBIT margin of about 20%, and a net profit margin of no less than 10%. Room rates will range from 800 to 1,300 baht, with a loyalty programme linking Blue Plus Points and The ONE Points. Ratchasuda Rangsiyakul, Senior Executive Vice President of Special Business 1 at OR, said entering the hotel business will help lift traffic at its service stations from 3.9 million users per day to 5 million per day. The first six branches will serve as a pilot to test the system before expanding to a full 50 locations in 2031, and once the model proves successful the company will scale up through franchising. The joint venture will provide management services to a standard, and dealers in the group have already approached the company seeking to open hotels.

Several brokers issued positive research on shares of Bangchak Corporation Public Company Limited, or BCP, after its sustainable aviation fuel, or SAF, project began commercial production last May. Land and Houses Securities estimates the SAF project generates EBITDA of as much as 1 billion baht on high SAF price spreads, and expects the SAF project together with Chevron Hong Kong to support a first full quarter of profit in the third quarter of 2026 and a full year next year, while maintaining a buy rating with a target price of 56 baht. Asia Plus Securities said that in the second quarter of 2026 the SAF business generated EBITDA of about 1 billion baht, roughly 3.9% of total EBITDA, and expects SAF sales volumes to rise in the third quarter of 2026 as the plant runs for a full quarter, assigning a fundamental value of 58 baht and recommending trading gains at 58 baht. InnovestX maintained an OUTPERFORM rating with a mid-2027 target price of 75 baht after taking analysts to visit the new commercial SAF production unit next to the Phra Khanong refinery, which began commercial operations in May 2026. The research team views global SAF demand as likely to rise in line with carbon reduction measures in the aviation industry, especially in Europe, while intensifying competition for used cooking oil is keeping raw material costs and business margins volatile.

PTT Oil and Retail Business Public Company Limited, known as OR, signed a joint investment agreement with Centara Hotels & Resorts in April 2026 to develop budget hotels, with OR holding a 49 percent stake and Centara holding 51 percent. The project will develop hotels on potential sites both inside and outside PTT Station service areas, which have a network spread along main routes nationwide. In the first phase, it will pilot six model hotels in potential locations: Phuket, Kanchanaburi, Phra Nakhon Si Ayutthaya, Songkhla (Hat Yai), Chonburi, and Bangkok. These hotels start at only 800 to 1,300 baht per night, with full amenities and universal design accessibility. They are expected to gradually open between 2027 and 2028, with a goal of expanding to 50 locations by 2031. Mom Luang Pichthong Thongyai, Chief Executive Officer of OR, said the operation reflects the concept of 'OR fills opportunities, good, good, good,' aiming to create a good environment, good communities, and good growth together with partners and society in a sustainable way.

Shares of Thai Oil Public Company Limited, or TOP, rose 7.84% to 72.25 baht, up 5.25 baht, on heavy trading volume of 1.49281 billion baht. Krungsri Securities recommends Buy with a 2027 target price of 83 baht, viewing the company as a beneficiary of tight global refined oil supply, especially diesel, which supports a recovery in refining margins, or GRM. Since TOP's production mix is about 50% diesel, it benefits directly. The research team estimates that TOP's profit could see upside of about 47-92% from its previous forecast after the escalation of war conditions raised the likelihood that energy price and refining margin assumptions will be revised higher, with further upside possible if supply factors and refining margins remain strong. The stock valuation also remains attractive, with PBV at about 0.6-0.7 times, while the expected dividend yield is more than 3.5% per year.

Refinery stocks led by TOP and SPRC rose sharply today after China restricted exports of oil products, prompting the market to expect that supplies of refined fuels in Asia may tighten, particularly diesel and jet fuel. At 10:28 a.m., TOP stood at 71.50 baht, up 4.50 baht, or 6.72%, with trading value of 1.09 billion baht, while SPRC stood at 14.70 baht, up 0.70 baht, or 5.00%, with trading value of 287.21 million baht. Brent crude rose 29 cents, or 0.28%, to 102.60 dollars per barrel, and WTI rose 27 cents, or 0.29%, to 93.14 dollars per barrel, after China did not allow major refineries to export diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel to markets outside Hong Kong and Macau in October. Meanwhile, the United States is preparing to send a third aircraft carrier and additional troops of up to about 10,000 personnel to the Middle East, and has called on Germany and France to release diesel from emergency reserves, proposing that the European Union release a total of about 120 million barrels of diesel over the next six months.

Shares of Bangchak Corporation Public Company Limited, or BCP, rose 6.06% after brokers said the sustainable aviation fuel, or SAF, project will support long-term growth. The stock traded at 52.50 baht this morning, up 3.00 baht, reaching a high of 52.75 baht during the session, with turnover of 565.41 million baht. Land and Houses Securities maintained its buy recommendation with a target price of 56 baht, citing strong profit prospects, with new business from SAF and Chevron Hong Kong helping to lift profit for a full quarter for the first time in the third quarter of 2026 and for the full year next year. The research team said the SAF project has very high profitability relative to its investment of 8.5 billion baht, generating 1 billion baht in EBITDA from just half a quarter of initial production, because the investment was lower than the usual 13 billion baht, as construction builds on the existing refinery in the Phra Khanong area, with no need to build a hydrogen production unit and using its own specialists, keeping conversion costs low. Meanwhile, BCP plans to expand SAF production capacity from 7,000 barrels per day to 10,000 barrels per day. Trinity Securities recommends a buy for trading gains with a target price of 55 baht, seeing SAF growth driven by decarbonization pressure in the aviation industry, which has more limited carbon reduction options than road transport, and SAF is likely to gradually increase its blending share over the long term.

Yuanta Securities upgraded its recommendation on Bangchak Corporation Public Company Limited, or BCP, to "Buy" from "Trading," with a fair value of 58.00 baht, after the Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) production project began commercial operation in May 2026 with a capacity of 1 million liters per day, or about 7 kbd, at the Phra Khanong refinery. The project carries an investment value of 8.5 billion baht, receives an eight-year tax incentive, and a 50% reduction in the tax rate for a further five years. Its key strength is the flexibility to adjust the product mix between SAF and HVO (Renewable Diesel) in line with market conditions. On feedstock, the company sources used cooking oil (UCO) domestically at about 400 tons per day, accounting for roughly 40% of feedstock demand, at a price of about 38-40 baht per liter. The remainder is imported from abroad, where prices are about 2 baht per liter higher than domestic prices, and the pretreatment unit can also handle animal fat, crude palm oil, and palm fatty acid distillate (PFAD). The project posted strong operating results in 2Q26, generating EBITDA of about 1 billion baht per quarter from a high capacity utilization rate of 6.8 kbd, sales volume of 39 million liters, and a high SAF product margin, with SAF prices at about 75-80 baht per liter against a processing cash cost of about 15 baht per liter. The company plans to potentially expand SAF capacity to 10 kbd, or 1.5 million liters per day, over the next five years. In Thailand, the Civil Aviation Authority of Thailand (CAAT) has not yet mandated SAF blending, but it has signed an MOU with airlines to support voluntary SAF use starting in 2025, while the EU has set a SAF blending ratio of 2% from 2025, to be gradually increased in the future. Since going ex-dividend on September 7, the share price has fallen 19%, reflecting profit-taking after earlier gains driven by dividend speculation, which means the stock now has open upside gain again, and 3Q26 earnings are expected to remain solid on crack spreads after the refined oil market entered a state of tight supply.

Shares of Bangchak Corporation Public Company Limited, or BCP, rose 5.05% to 52.00 baht at 10:05 a.m. on October 2, 2026, on trading value of 300.57 million baht, after Land and Houses Securities said in an analysis that the company's sustainable aviation fuel, or SAF, project of BSGF Company Limited, in which BCP holds an 80% stake, is Thailand's first stand-alone SAF production project. Located at the Bangchak Phra Khanong refinery, it uses mainly used cooking oil as feedstock and Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acid technology to produce neat SAF, as well as Bio-LPG and Bionaphtha, with initial production capacity of about 1 million liters per day. The project was completed with an investment of about 8.5 billion baht, first produced in May 2026, and in the second quarter of 2026 ran at an average of about 6,800 barrels per day, or roughly 1.08 million liters per day, with total sales of about 39 million liters and EBITDA of about 1 billion baht, even though commercial operations began only halfway through the quarter. It received an eight-year corporate income tax exemption and a 50% tax reduction for the following five years from the Board of Investment. Land and Houses Securities expects the SAF business to begin generating full-quarter profits for the first time in the third quarter of 2026 and sees a chance of EBITDA exceeding 2 billion baht in that quarter, potentially reaching about 8 billion baht on a full-year basis in 2027. Meanwhile, the acquisition of Chevron Hong Kong, completed at the end of the second quarter of 2026, will also begin contributing a full quarter of results for the first time in the third quarter of 2026. It therefore maintained a buy rating on BCP with a target price of 56 baht. Trinity Securities said after visiting the project that the plant runs at an average utilization rate of about 6,800 barrels per day, close to its designed capacity of 7,000 barrels per day, and has the flexibility to switch between SAF and HVO, or renewable diesel, with SAF yields of about 90% while HVO is about 98%. It also views the project as adding about 7,000 barrels per day of new production capacity to BCP's portfolio, on top of its existing refining base of about 294,000 barrels per day, with plans to raise capacity by about 50% from roughly 1 million liters per day to 1.5 million liters per day, equivalent to about 10,000 to 11,000 barrels per day. It recommended buying BCP with a target price of 55 baht.

Land and Houses Securities Public Company Limited estimates that the Sustainable Aviation Fuel, or SAF, business of Bangchak Corporation Public Company Limited, or BCP, is beginning to show clear profit potential after the SAF project of Bangchak Sustainable Energy Business Company Limited, or BSGF, in which BCP holds an 80% stake, started commercial production in May 2026 and is expected to be a key driver of earnings from the third quarter of 2026 onward. BSGF is Thailand's first pioneer in stand-alone SAF production, located at the Bangchak Phra Khanong refinery, with initial production capacity of about 1 million liters per day, an investment of about 8.5 billion baht, and total sales volume of about 39 million liters in the second quarter of 2026, generating EBITDA of about 1 billion baht, or roughly 25.6 baht per liter. Land and Houses expects the third quarter of 2026 to be the first quarter in which the SAF business operates for a full quarter, giving it the opportunity to generate EBITDA of more than 2 billion baht per quarter, and if SAF prices remain at high levels, it could generate EBITDA of about 8 billion baht next year. Meanwhile, BCP is also supported by its acquisition of Chevron Hong Kong, which was completed in late the second quarter of 2026 and will begin contributing a full quarter of profit for the first time in the third quarter of 2026. Land and Houses maintains its buy recommendation on BCP, citing earnings momentum driven by the new SAF and Chevron Hong Kong businesses, together with a high dividend yield.

Energy Absolute Public Company Limited, or EA, is pushing forward with the commercialisation of Bio-PCM, a bio-based material developed from natural raw materials, particularly palm oil, through Green Technology Research Company Limited, a company within the EA group. Chatchapol Sripratum, Chief Executive Officer of EA, disclosed that EA recently joined with the Program Management Unit for Competitiveness to organise the project "Up the Phase. Upgrade the World: Phase Change Materials to Future World-Changing Innovation," which drew 107 teams, later narrowed to the final 10. The winning entries were "BioTemp 22 (ENP@R17), an innovation controlling temperatures at 20-24°C using Bio-PCM for platelet transport" in the Bio-PCM Frontier Tech category, and "Evi-PCM Block: an innovation locking in temperature to protect environmental evidence" in the Next Gen Visionary category. Currently, EA's Bio-PCM, developed by EA's research team through GTR and granted the first and only patent of its kind in Thailand, is exported to Japan, South Korea, the United States and Europe, totalling about 1,000 tonnes per year, worth more than 100 million baht, with order value continuing to rise.

Analysts at InnovestX Securities estimate that the sustainable aviation fuel business, or SAF, will be an additional profit driver for BCP. In the second quarter of 2026, the SAF business generated EBITDA of about 1 billion baht, despite operating for less than 40 days, or 3.8% of the group's total EBITDA. SAF EBITDA is expected to rise to 2.5-2.7 billion baht in the third quarter of 2026, driven by full-quarter recognition of operating results and a healthy SAF-UCO price spread. For the full year 2026, SAF EBITDA is expected to exceed 6.2 billion baht, or about 5% of forecast EBITDA, and to increase to 8 billion baht in 2027, or about 10%, under the assumption of a SAF-UCO price spread of 1,250 dollars per tonne. The brokerage maintains its OUTPERFORM recommendation with a mid-2027 target price of 75 baht.

Pure Energy Public Company Limited, or EA, through its group company Green Technology Research Company Limited, or GTR, together with the Program Management Unit for Competitiveness, or PMUC, has announced the winners of the "Up the Phase. Upgrade the World: Phase Change Materials to Future World-Changing Innovations" project. From 107 teams nationwide, 10 finalists were selected to find new ideas for extending bio-material technology into real-world applications and commercial opportunities. The competition was divided into two categories: Bio-PCM Frontier Tech for research and inventions, and Next Gen Visionary for creative concepts with future potential. The winner in the Bio-PCM Frontier Tech category was "BioTemp 22 (ENP@R17), a 20-24°C temperature-control innovation using Bio-PCM for platelet transport" by Mr. Prakarn Sawasdee. It is a temperature-control box that keeps platelets at 20 to 24 degrees Celsius during transport, with a temperature display and logging system. It is reusable and requires no electricity during transport, and has already been tested in actual use at Taksin Hospital. The winner in the Next Gen Visionary category was "Evi-PCM Block: a temperature-locking innovation to protect environmental evidence" by Ms. Chonlada Maihom. It is a concept for a box to transport environmental samples for laboratory analysis, using Bio-PCM cartridges selected to suit the temperature required by each type of sample. The technology behind these innovations is Bio-PCM, or Bio-Phase Change Material, a bio-based material developed from raw materials such as oil palm. It can store and release thermal energy, helping maintain temperatures within the appropriate range without the need for a constant electricity supply. It was developed by EA's research team through GTR and was the first and only such patent granted in Thailand. Currently, EA's Bio-PCM is exported to Japan, South Korea, the United States and Europe, totaling about 1,000 tons per year, worth more than 100 million baht, with order value continuing to rise.

Mom Luang Pikthong Thongyai, Chief Executive Officer of PTT Oil and Retail Business Public Company Limited, or OR, has unveiled a strategy for its non-oil business, saying it is a key profit engine amid volatile oil prices. The company is pressing ahead with expanding Cafe Amazon coffee shops both inside and outside its service stations, focusing on new locations in hospitals and community areas such as temples, and is considering developing a mobile store format. It is also teaming up with partners on collaboration products such as soy sauce to attract younger customers. On progress in its partnership with Central Plaza Hotel Public Company Limited, or CENTEL, to develop budget hotels within service stations, the company has finalised six pilot locations: Bangkok, Kanchanaburi, Ayutthaya, Phuket, Chonburi and Songkhla. Five are branches inside service stations and one is outside a service station, in the Don Mueang area near the Red Line train station opposite Terminal 2. The hotels are five-storey buildings with about 79 rooms per branch, priced at roughly 800 to 100 baht per night. Construction takes about one year, with a gradual opening in 2027-2028. The project has double-digit returns on investment and profit margins. OR is also the first company to offer sustainable aviation fuel, or SAF, at service stations for regional airports, blending Jet A1 fuel with biofuel made from used cooking oil at a ratio of about 1%, priced roughly five times higher than normal Jet A1.

HF Sinclair Corporation plans to separate its Lubricants & Specialties business through the capital markets in a tax-efficient transaction, part of an effort to sharpen its portfolio and let both businesses pursue growth independently. On its latest earnings call, the company said roughly 5-7 million barrels per day of global refining capacity had gone offline due to conflicts in the Middle East and Russia, and management expects the damage to refining infrastructure in those regions to take time to recover. With low U.S. refined product inventories further tightening the market, HF Sinclair expects refining margins to remain elevated well into 2027. The company operates seven complex refineries across the Mid-Continent, Southwest, Rocky Mountains and Pacific Northwest, and its shares have gained 117.1% over the past year compared with the industry's 113.6% growth. HF Sinclair trades at a trailing 12-month enterprise-value-to-EBITDA of 5.84X, above the broader industry average of 5.69X, and currently carries a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy).

PTT Oil and Retail Business Public Company Limited, or OR, a major fuel retail operator under PTT Station service stations, has announced an increase of 0.75 baht per litre in retail prices for diesel, gasoline, and gasohol, effective from 05:00 on October 2, 2026. Under the new retail prices, diesel rises from 41.44 baht per litre to 42.19 baht per litre, diesel B20 rises from 36.44 baht per litre to 37.19 baht per litre, gasohol E20 rises from 34.94 baht per litre to 35.69 baht per litre, gasohol 91 rises from 39.57 baht per litre to 40.32 baht per litre, gasohol 95 rises from 39.94 baht per litre to 40.69 baht per litre, and gasoline rises from 48.93 baht per litre to 49.68 baht per litre. Meanwhile, some premium fuels at PTT Station are unchanged, with Super Power Gasohol 95 at 47.79 baht per litre, Super Power Diesel at 50.05 baht per litre, and Super Power X99 at 49.79 baht per litre. These prices are retail prices in the Bangkok area and exclude the local maintenance tax.

Energy Absolute, or EA, has announced a target to raise sales of its bio-PCM product to 100 million baht within three years. Chatphol Sriprathum, the company's Chief Executive Officer, said that PCM, or Phase Change Material, which is extracted from palm oil, currently generates only modest sales and revenue, with its main markets being Japan and Korea, and that EA is the first and only Thai operator producing and exporting PCM at present. At the same time, the company is pressing ahead with the development of Green Diesel, or HVO, to meet demand for clean energy in overseas markets, and is preparing to expand investment in renewable energy businesses, including wind power plants and waste-to-energy plants, to offset revenue from the Adder scheme of its existing projects as those gradually expire. In addition, Green Technology Research Company Limited, part of the EA group, together with the Program Management Unit for Competitiveness, announced the winners of the Up the Phase project, narrowing 107 applicant teams from across the country down to 10 finalists. The winning entries were BioTemp 22, an innovation that controls temperatures between 20 and 24 degrees Celsius using Bio-PCM for platelet transport, and Evi-PCM Block, an innovation that locks in temperature to protect environmental evidence.

Chatpol Sriprathum, Chief Executive Officer of Energy Absolute Public Company Limited, or EA, disclosed that the company targets sales of 100 million baht from its palm oil extract business, BIO-PCM, within the next three years, after continuously rising demand from its main customers in the construction materials business in South Korea and Japan. The company began recognising revenue from PCM products last year. The PCM business still accounts for a relatively small share of sales compared with its energy business group, which generates revenue in the billions of baht. Meanwhile, the company's core business structure remains roughly 60-70% power plants, followed by the electric vehicle, or EV, business. As for the earnings outlook, it is expected to grow by leaps and bounds over the next three years, as new projects become clearer from 2027, spanning the power plant business, the biodiesel plant, and EV car sales to the Bangkok Mass Transit Authority, or BMTA, which will begin delivering vehicles from the first quarter of 2027. The Maha Sarakham 1 and Khon Kaen wind power plant projects will gradually begin commercial operation in 2028-2029, while the waste-to-energy plant in Phuket, with a generating capacity of 8 MW, will be completed in the second to third quarter of 2027. In addition, the company is interested in joining the auction under the new PDP plan, focusing on wind power plants and solar farms, and is also interested in joining the auction for community power plant and community solar projects.