Loans of 8 banks in August 2026 fall 0.1%, brokers recommend accumulating KTB and KBANK

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Summary · why it matters

Asia Plus Securities said that loans of the group of eight commercial banks at the end of August 2026 fell 0.1% month-on-month but were flat quarter-on-quarter, and rose 2.3% year-to-date, close to the research house's assumption of 3% year-on-year loan growth at year-end. The recovery is not yet broad-based across the group. KTB and TISCO grew 0.3% month-on-month, followed by KBANK and TTB at 0.2% month-on-month, supported by KTB's government loans and large corporate loans. BBL fell 0.7%, BAY fell 0.6% and KKP fell 0.6% on debt repayments after earlier drawdowns. SCB fell 0.1% because of retail loans across hire purchase, housing, CARDX and AUTOX. Deposits for the group rose 0.5% month-on-month and 2.0% year-to-date at almost every bank, with the loan-to-deposit ratio close to the prior period-end level of 83.5%, reflecting ample liquidity to support loan growth. Year-to-date loan momentum stood at 6.4% for KTB, 3.9% for KKP and 3.0% for KBANK, better than the banks' own targets and above the research house's full-year assumptions. Every 1% change in loans changes profit by about 1%. The research house maintains its view that group loans will return to growth of 3% year-on-year this year, compared with an average decline of 1% in 2024-2025, and estimates group net profit in the third quarter of 2026 will grow quarter-on-quarter, supported by a recovery in net interest income at large banks after interest rates stabilised. KTB has a positive factor from mark-to-market gains on THAI shares, whose cost basis remains low. On a year-on-year basis, KKP is seen growing more strongly than the group after its low third-quarter 2025 profit base of 1.7 billion baht, compared with an average of 2 billion baht per quarter in the first half of 2026. On strategy, it recommends using share price volatility from fund flows to accumulate KTB, followed by KBANK, while BBL is a catch-up play at a price-to-book value of 0.6 times versus 1.2 times for the group, and recommends buying KKP on stronger third-quarter 2026 earnings momentum than the group.

Impact on assets 9

Financials± Mixed
Kasikornbank Public Company Limited
KBANK
▲ PositiveCapitalrelevance

KBANK loans grew 0.2% month-on-month with year-to-date momentum of 3.0%, above its own target and the research house's assumption, and it is recommended for accumulation.

Krung Thai Bank Public Company Limited
KTB
▲ PositiveCapitalrelevance

KTB loans grew 0.3% month-on-month on government and large corporate loans, with year-to-date momentum of 6.4% above target, plus mark-to-market gains on THAI shares; it is recommended for accumulation.

Bank of Ayudhya PCL
BAY
▼ NegativeCapitalrelevance

BAY loans fell 0.6% month-on-month on debt repayments after earlier drawdowns, a negative for profit given every 1% loan change moves profit ~1%.

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Bangkok Bank PCL
BBL
▼ NegativeCapitalrelevance

BBL loans fell 0.7% month-on-month on debt repayments after earlier drawdowns, weighing on profit via the ~1% loan-to-profit sensitivity.

SCB X Public Company Limited
SCB
▼ NegativeCapitalrelevance

SCB's loans fell 0.1% m/m in August 2026 due to retail loans across hire purchase, housing, CARDX and AUTOX, and every 1% change in loans changes profit by about 1%.

Aerospace & Aviation▲