Bulk & Structural Metals (Reshoring)

Mexican Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard said Mexico is pressing the United States to reduce import tariffs on steel, aluminum and automobiles, as trade negotiations between the two countries continue. Ebrard said that although trade relations between the two countries have made progress and he has spoken with US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer almost daily, talks to lower the tariffs the US collects under Section 232 of the US Trade Expansion Act have not yet reached a conclusion. Currently, the US imposes a 25% tariff on imports of passenger cars and light trucks, with qualifying vehicles from Mexico taxed only on the value of parts produced outside the United States. As for the 50% tariffs on steel and aluminum from Mexico set by the government of President Donald Trump, the two countries are negotiating to reduce or eliminate them. Ebrard said Mexico must also monitor additional trade measures from the US government, especially those related to the problem of excess capacity, and noted that the Section 301 tariff issue stemming from excess capacity was not raised at Thursday's meeting between the two countries, with Mexico awaiting a decision from the United States. Ebrard stressed that preserving Mexico's standing in the US market remains the top priority, with official data showing that the United States was the destination for about 85% of Mexico's non-oil exports in the first eight months of this year.

BofA Securities raised its long-term copper price forecast by 20% to $12,000 per ton for 2026 and updated its mining sector rankings, upgrading BHP to Buy with a price objective of A$68 and naming the world's largest copper producer its top pick among large-cap mining stocks. Glencore was rated Buy with a price objective of GBp650, with BofA highlighting its copper growth options and monitoring a potential Australian listing for the diversified miner. Norsk Hydro received a Buy rating with a price objective of NOK98, which BofA described as offering interesting risk-reward characteristics for the pure-play aluminum company. Antofagasta maintained its Buy rating with a price objective of GBp4700, with the bank noting roughly 30% volume growth potential. BofA also trimmed its 2027 aluminum forecast by 5% to $3,625 per ton, and cautioned that investors should be prepared for potential drawdowns of 10% to 20%, noting that during China's super cycle from 2002 to 2008 markets experienced multiple corrections despite overall upward trends.

ATI Inc. has raised its adjusted free cash flow guidance for 2026 to US$550–US$600 million, citing higher adjusted EBITDA and stronger operating performance. The company attributed the increase to robust aerospace and defense demand, pricing gains, and targeted investments. The higher outlook points to improved cash conversion, ongoing buybacks, and a more flexible balance sheet, while also raising the stakes on execution against higher EBITDA and operating performance targets. Five Simply Wall St community fair value estimates for ATI span roughly US$165.85 to US$275.

Rio Tinto, the Tasmanian government, and the Australian Government have reached an agreement to secure the ongoing operation of Bell Bay Aluminium in northern Tasmania through to the end of 2031. Under the arrangements, Hydro Tasmania will continue supplying electricity to Bell Bay Aluminium until 31 December 2031, while the Australian and Tasmanian Governments will provide additional support to continue operations as Tasmania's energy system evolves. That additional support is intended to help maintain Bell Bay Aluminium's international competitiveness and its ongoing contribution to the Tasmanian economy. Rio Tinto Aluminium & Lithium CEO Jérôme Pécresse said the agreements will provide Bell Bay Aluminium with an operating pathway through to 2031, and increased certainty for the company's people, suppliers and the northern Tasmanian community.

Nucor and Steel Dynamics jointly filed a motion to intervene with the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission on the MISO footprint, seeking a formal voice in how electricity market rules apply within the MISO region. The filing puts power market design for large industrial users that rely heavily on MISO for long-term electricity needs in focus. Nucor, a US-based steel producer in the Metals and Mining industry with a market value of about $56.1b, said electricity rules inside the MISO footprint directly affect how its mills power energy-intensive steelmaking operations, tying the motion to core manufacturing costs. The company said the move lines up with an earnings story that leans heavily on new mills and downstream assets turning into steady cash generators, with power pricing and reliability feeding into the margin profile analysts are watching in the multi-year US$15b to US$20b capital program. The practical checkpoint is what comes out of this specific FERC proceeding, with investors watching for the next formal MISO or FERC filing that references Nucor or Steel Dynamics as intervenors and any decision laying out new tariff structures or market rules for large industrial users inside the MISO footprint.

Kanadevia and Nippon Steel Engineering, a subsidiary of Nippon Steel, announced on the 29th that they are ending talks on a business integration that the two companies had been pursuing. The two companies explained that they had reached the view that it would be difficult to find agreement on the conditions for the integration, and the merger has fallen through. Kanadevia is the former Hitachi Zosen, and Nippon Steel Engineering is headquartered in Tokyo.

A Brazilian mining company known as Itabiriçu is petitioning the Supreme Court of Texas to review an appellate court's decision in its long-running lawsuit against industry rival Vale SA. The petition raises broad questions about whether foreign companies can be sued in Texas, how closely a lawsuit must be tied to Texas conduct and how courts should analyze commercial activity that spans multiple countries and jurisdictions. The original lawsuit, filed in October 2023 in Nueces County, Texas, alleged Vale conspired with co-defendants Voestalpine Texas, LLC and Voestalpine US Holding LLC to become Texas' primary iron ore supplier, with Vale allegedly extracting and selling more than 100 million tons of the metal rightfully owned by Itabiriçu to Voestalpine, which then shipped the processed ore through the Port of Corpus Christi. The dispute stems from a battle between Itabiriçu and Vale over Brazil's Research Permit Polygonal, a water-filled zone storing mineral waste products known as tailings, and in September 2023 a Brazilian federal court ruled in favor of Itabiriçu, upholding its ownership of the tailings and right to begin extraction, though Vale had already extracted and sold the disputed tailings prior to that ruling. After the Texas trial court denied Vale's claims as a matter of personal jurisdiction, the Texas Court of Appeals dismissed Itabiriçu's allegations of improper conversion and sale of iron ore against Vale, ruling the issues should lie solely in Brazil's courts, and Itabiriçu's counsel now argues that separating Vale's unlawful extraction of iron ore in Brazil from its business dealings in Texas is flawed. The case is Itabiriçu Nacional De Pesquisa Mineral LTDA., v. Vale S.A., Case No. 26-0792 in the Supreme Court of Texas.

JFE Steel and major logistics real estate developer Japan GLP signed a sale and purchase agreement on August 5, 2026 for approximately 18 hectares of land at Ogishima in the Keihin district of JFE Steel's East Japan Works, and the four parties JFE Holdings, JFE Steel, Japan GLP, and the City of Kawasaki concluded a partnership agreement aimed at forming an advanced logistics hub. The land is the site of the first integrated steelworks in the Tokyo metropolitan area, which the former Nippon Kokan began operating in 1936; JFE suspended blast furnace operations there in September 2023 and has been advancing conversion based on its land utilization concept OHGISHIMA2050. This initiative is the first concrete step under that plan, and as a next-generation cold chain base supporting food logistics in the Tokyo metropolitan area, 11 next-generation frozen and refrigerated logistics facilities will be developed in stages. With a total floor area of approximately 370,000 square meters and storage capacity on the scale of 550,000 tons, it will be the largest such facility in Japan, with total investment of approximately 300 billion yen, and it will be named ALFALINK Kawasaki Ogishima after Japan GLP's large-scale logistics facility brand, making it the sixth site under that brand. JFE will gain a sale profit of 45 billion yen from the land sale and will use it for future equipment dismantling and infrastructure development at Ogishima. Land use conversion at Ogishima covers approximately 222 hectares, and the roughly 18 hectares for this logistics facility will be the first step.

Empire Metals Limited announced it has produced an uncoated rutile pigment from mineral concentrates derived from the in-situ, high-grade weathered ore at its Pitfield Titanium Project in Western Australia. The company said the testwork confirms the crystal form of the final pigment is determined by processing conditions rather than by the titanium minerals present in the ore, and that Pitfield's ores are naturally low in deleterious elements, particularly radionuclides. Empire is now targeting a refined and coated rutile pigment for the architectural coatings market, where current global weighted average prices are approximately US$3,250 per tonne, according to TiPMC Consulting 2026. Architectural coatings are the largest single market sector for TiO2 pigment, consuming 2.3Mt annually, about 33% of global pigment production, and independent benchmarking puts the cost of the final finishing stage at approximately US$250 to US$320 per tonne for the sulphate pigment industry, excluding all upstream mining and processing costs. Managing Director Shaun Bunn called the conversion of Pitfield's titanium-rich minerals into high-value rutile crystal pigments an important technical milestone that sets Pitfield apart from the rest of the titanium industry, and the company said it is now in discussions with technical advisers specialising in titanium dioxide surface treatment to procure product development services, initial plant design and capital cost estimates for coating its raw pigment materials.

Alcoa has closed a financing package to fund its planned acquisition of South32's bauxite, alumina and aluminum assets. The funding completion secures capital for the asset purchase, which still depends on shareholder and regulatory approvals. The debt-funded expansion adds leverage to control more bauxite and alumina capacity, a bet on scale and process expertise rather than downstream diversification, and one that raises the bar on cash generation from those assets. The risk of higher regulatory costs and operational bottlenecks matters more once fixed interest payments are locked in, since tariffs, mine approvals or weak regional premiums could constrain returns and limit room to respond to prolonged pressure on primary aluminum economics.

Amaero Inc. announced it has postponed its initial public offering due to adverse market conditions. The Tennessee-based producer of refractory and titanium alloy spherical metal powders for additive manufacturing had filed a Registration Statement on Form S-1, File No. 333-298612, with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, but that registration statement has not yet been declared effective. The company said the securities may not be sold and offers to buy may not be accepted before the registration statement is declared effective. Amaero, which trades on the ASX under the ticker 3DA, describes itself as a pioneer in Powder Metallurgy Hot Isostatic Pressing manufacturing of large near-net-shape components. The company is led by Chairman and CEO Hank J. Holland.

Largo Inc. announced a strategic shift toward higher-margin products, reporting that recent sales of copper-platinum group metal concentrates generated approximately US$4.7 million in revenue at an operating profit margin above 90%, making it the company's highest-margin product. The company is evaluating an expansion that could potentially approximately double copper-PGM concentrate production capacity during 2027, while targeting current output of approximately 300 to 380 tonnes per month. On the vanadium side, an optimization study indicated capacity to raise high-purity production to approximately 68% of total vanadium production, with overall vanadium pentoxide output expected to trend toward approximately 876 tonnes per month, the low end of current guidance, versus approximately 1,000 tonnes per month at the upper end. Largo has produced and shipped its first high-purity vanadium pentoxide material for the U.S. Defense Logistics Agency and is completing production of its second shipment. Separately, Largo executed a definitive debt-restructuring agreement with Banco do Brasil, its largest creditor, which together with a previously executed agreement with Caixa Econômica Federal covers approximately 48% of its approximately US$82 million in commercial bank senior debt.

Kennametal unveiled KAF82 on September 15, the first additive manufacturing tungsten carbide grade of its kind to reach commercial scale for metal cutting tools, arriving weeks after the company posted record profitability for fiscal 2026. Two automotive OEMs are already running production tooling built with KAF82, and Kennametal controls the entire chain from proprietary powder production through sintering and finishing, keeping the powder off the external market so rivals cannot buy the same material. The grade also uses less tungsten per part, and Kennametal is pitching it across aerospace and defense, energy, general engineering, and transportation. The launch follows fourth quarter sales that rose 43% to $737 million and record adjusted earnings per share of $2.96, capping a fiscal year with adjusted EPS of $4.57. The same fiscal year swung operating cash flow from $208 million positive to $4 million negative, and free operating cash flow from $121 million positive to $79 million negative, on working capital tied up in inventory built at unusually high tungsten prices and advance supply payments. Kennametal's guidance for the first quarter of fiscal 2027 calls for adjusted EPS of $2.50 to $2.80, with a full year range of $4.15 to $5.15.

Nucor Corporation forecast third-quarter earnings of $5.55 to $5.65 per share, guidance that fell short of Wall Street expectations and sent shares down more than 3% in after-hours trading on September 17. The outlook still marks a substantial increase from the $2.63 per share Nucor reported in the third quarter of last year, but it came in below analysts' expectations of approximately $6.20 per share. Nucor expects higher average selling prices to support earnings in its steel mills and steel products segments on higher volumes and higher average realized selling prices, but anticipates higher product costs that could limit the benefit, while its raw materials business is expected to be hurt by lower pricing and shipments and higher corporate expenses could also weigh on results. The company warned that global steel overcapacity and imports remain a significant industry risk, and that its earnings stay exposed to swings in key input costs. Hedge fund interest rose modestly in the second quarter, with 62 hedge funds holding positions versus 59 in the first quarter, though Berkshire Hathaway cut its Nucor stake by 53% to approximately $413.81 million and Slate Path Capital reduced its position by 39% to approximately $280.39 million. Short interest climbed from approximately 3.69 million shares as of July 31 to 4.11 million shares as of August 31, roughly 1.81% of the company's shares.