United States 3 Month Bill Yield

In a report dated the 8th, CoinShares said that for Bitcoin's rise to continue, it needs inflows driven by fiscal concerns rather than interest rate expectations. Inflows into crypto funds have lost momentum this week after reaching a cumulative 11.1 billion dollars since mid-July. Behind this is the fact that the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has topped 5.3% and the 30-year yield has reached 5.7%, both the highest levels in more than 20 years. In August, the U.S. Treasury doubled the cap on long-bond buybacks to more than 4 billion dollars per operation from 2 billion dollars, covering September 9 to November 4, but September was the worst month for U.S. Treasuries in four years, with the 10-year yield rising by more than 0.5 percentage points. CoinShares analyzed that if the rise in yields reflects concerns about fiscal sustainability, Bitcoin will begin to look less like a conventional risk asset and more like an alternative to government-issued money, and said the inflows from hedging against fiscal concerns are what will turn Bitcoin's grind higher into a sustained rally, a figure to watch in the coming weeks.

The dollar rose today, buoyed by remarks from Christopher Waller, a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors and a permanent voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee, who voiced support for the Fed raising interest rates. As of 8:10 p.m. Thailand time, the dollar index was up 0.14% at 102.28, while the dollar gained 0.09% to 1.120 against the euro and strengthened 0.26% to 158.27 yen. Waller said the Fed may need to raise rates further to bring inflation back to its 2% target if economic data continue to come in as expected, and that tighter monetary policy may be needed to keep prices stable. In addition, the Fed's meeting minutes signaled that policymakers see inflation as the biggest risk to the U.S. economic outlook. Investors increased their bets that the Fed will hold rates steady at its October meeting after the Institute for Supply Management's U.S. services index fell to 54.9 in September, below the expected 55.2 and down from 55.4 in August. Most recently, the CME Group's FedWatch Tool indicated that investors assign an 80.6% probability to the Fed holding rates at 3.75-4.00% at its October meeting, and a 70.2% probability to the Fed raising rates by 0.25% to 4.00-4.25% at its December meeting. The market is watching next week's releases of the consumer price index and producer price index ahead of the Fed's monetary policy meeting on October 27-28.

US Treasury yields rose today after the market digested the results of this week's bond auctions. As of 6:51 p.m. Thailand time, the yield on the 10-year Treasury stood at 5.244%, while the 30-year Treasury yield stood at 5.617%. On Thursday, the US Treasury sold 22 billion dollars of 30-year government bonds, with indirect bidders, including foreign central banks, purchasing more than 72% of the amount offered in the auction, above the average of 68% across the past 10 auctions. On Wednesday, the US Treasury sold 39 billion dollars of 10-year government bonds. Investors are also watching the situation in the Middle East, after US President Donald Trump confirmed that the United States will not attack Iran before the US midterm elections. Meanwhile, Christopher Waller, a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors and a permanent voting member of the Fed's monetary policy committee, voiced support for a Fed rate hike, saying the Fed may need to raise interest rates further to bring inflation back to the Fed's 2% target, provided the economic data due out in the coming days continues to come in as expected. Investors are watching next week's releases of the consumer price index and the producer price index, which will indicate the direction of interest rates, ahead of the Fed's monetary policy meeting on October 27-28.

Patrick Poullie, Head of Financial Markets at Siam Commercial Bank, or SCB, said the bank estimates the baht will move within a range of 33.25 to 33.85 per US dollar for the remainder of this year, noting that external factors, especially the war in the Middle East and the direction of global interest rates, remain the main pressures, causing the baht to swing with crude oil prices and the strengthening of the US dollar after the Federal Reserve signalled continued tight monetary policy to curb inflation. In the short term, the baht may weaken on periodic war concerns and the US election in November, as well as the risk that the US may raise tariffs on imports from Thailand under Section 301. However, a sharp spike in oil prices is less likely, and Thailand's trade balance tends to improve late in the year, supported by August export figures that grew faster than expected. For the outlook in 2027, SCB estimates the baht will weaken again, reaching 33.80 per US dollar in the first quarter and possibly approaching 34.50 per US dollar in the third quarter before gradually strengthening slightly late in the year, given US government bond yields that are likely to hold at high levels and a Thai economy still recovering unevenly, or in a K-shaped recovery, relying mainly on electronics exports and the US market, while domestic consumption and the labour market recover slowly. These factors will likely lead the Monetary Policy Committee to hold the policy rate at 1.0%, keeping the interest rate differential between Thailand and other countries a pressure on the baht. Nevertheless, factors that could reverse and support the baht next year include the chance that the Fed may raise rates only once, fewer than the market's expectation of three times, as well as the risk that the US government may face a temporary shutdown and that the war situation may ease until oil prices return to normal levels. Wachiravat Banchuen, a senior financial markets strategist at SCB, added that long-term US government bond yields have surged to their highest in more than two decades, driven by high fiscal deficits, a wave of corporate bond issuance, especially by large technology companies raising funds for AI, and inflation concerns from the war. He estimates the yield curve will tend to steepen, with two-year bond yields possibly declining gradually to 4.15-4.35% by late 2027 in line with a slowing US economy, while 10-year bond yields will fall only limitedly and remain high at 4.70-4.90%. For the US presidential election, the base case assumes the Democratic Party will win a majority in at least one chamber, which would check the government's power and make new fiscal stimulus harder, reducing government spending and possibly helping push long-term bond yields somewhat lower. The probability of a Democrat Sweep is put at 55%, and the case of Democrats taking the lower house while Republicans hold the Senate at 35%. However, if a Republican Sweep occurs, with a probability of about 10%, it would be an upside risk that drives government bond yields and the dollar sharply higher on concerns over rising fiscal deficits. In addition, the euro has faced heavy selling pressure recently from high energy prices and political uncertainty, especially in France, where investors worry about a change of government next year that could affect public debt and the budget deficit. If the far-right or far-left wins the election, it would widen the spread between French and German bond yields and drag the euro lower, but if centrist parties retain power, it would reduce political risk and help the euro recover somewhat amid lingering fiscal challenges.

Daniel Ivascyn, chief investment officer of Pimco, the giant US bond manager, said the 10-year Treasury yield could rise to 6 per cent for the first time since 2000, citing inflation worries driven by high oil prices and concerns over the expansion of US public debt. The 10-year Treasury yield has risen about 120 basis points so far this year and is trading just below the 5.34 per cent level hit last week, its highest since 2002, and now stands at 5.29 per cent. In an interview with the Financial Times published on the 9th, Ivascyn pointed to factors including hedge funds unwinding loss-making bond positions, saying a sharp short-term rise from current levels is 'realistically possible' and that 'reaching it is quite possible.' He noted that further increases in Treasury yields could weigh on risk assets such as equities and corporate bonds, and that a rise above 5.5 per cent would likely trigger 'a significant decline in both the credit and equity markets.' Global bond markets have come under strong selling pressure this year as soaring energy prices stoke inflation and the artificial intelligence boom boosts economic growth, with the 10-year Treasury yield recording its biggest quarterly rise of the century in the third quarter.

Copper futures on the New York market closed lower on Thursday, October 8, with the COMEX December contract falling 8.10 cents, or 1.22%, to settle at 6.5685 dollars per pound. Analysts said the Federal Reserve's tight monetary policy stance, along with the prospect of a December rate increase, is weighing on investor confidence in base metals, after the market digested the latest Fed meeting minutes, which signaled support for another rate hike before the end of the year because inflation remains above target. Copper trading is also being influenced by the direction of copper demand in China, the country that consumes large volumes of the metal. Although real end-use demand from China had begun to show signs of recovery earlier, that support is starting to fade amid broader economic pressures.

Asian stock markets are likely to face pressure this morning amid concerns over rising oil prices and elevated government bond yields, which are adding uncertainty to the economic outlook and the direction of interest rates. Japan's Nikkei index opened down 0.6% at 68,648.50 points, pressured by electronics and metals shares, while South Korea's stock market is closed today for a national holiday. US President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social yesterday, confirming that the United States is making progress in talks with Iran and that the US will not attack Iran before the US midterm elections on November 3. Meanwhile, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Iran will send its response to US comments on a proposal to end the war within the next few days, after receiving US comments on Iran's seven-day proposal, and is carefully reviewing the details, with the two sides exchanging messages through intermediaries. At the same time, Christopher Waller, a member of the US Federal Reserve's Board of Governors and its monetary policy committee, said the Fed may need to raise interest rates further if economic data released gradually continues to come in as expected, in order to speed inflation back to the Fed's 2% target.

St. Louis Fed President Musalem said on the 8th that the Federal Reserve will need to raise interest rates further to bring inflation back to its 2% target. Speaking at a Bloomberg-hosted event in New York, Musalem said "additional tightening will be necessary to return inflation to target in a timely manner." Regarding the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on the 27th and 28th, he said only that he approaches every meeting with a very open mind and holds no preconceptions. Musalem does not have a vote on the FOMC this year.

The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note climbed above 5.3% today after Christopher Waller, a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors and a permanent voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee, voiced support for the Fed raising interest rates. As of 10:15 p.m. Thailand time, the 10-year Treasury yield stood at 5.305%, while the 30-year Treasury yield was at 5.663%. Speaking at the Istanbul Economic Forum, Waller said the Fed may need to raise rates further to bring inflation back to its 2% target, provided the economic data due out in the coming weeks continue to come in as expected. He noted that the increases need not come in consecutive meetings, but should be carried out within an appropriate timeframe. He also said he supports a rate hike in September, not only because of the August consumer price index data but also because months of evidence show hiring remains strong and inflation has stayed persistently high. He expressed concern that the recent pickup in inflation is pushing consumers, investors, and businesses that set prices for goods and services to raise their expectations for future inflation.

Christopher Waller, a member of the US Federal Reserve's Board of Governors and a permanent voting member of the Fed's rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee, said the Fed may need to raise interest rates further to bring inflation back to its 2% target if upcoming economic data continue to come in as expected. Speaking today at the Istanbul Economic Forum, he said rate increases need not come at consecutive meetings but should be delivered within an appropriate timeframe, and he backed a rate hike in September, not only because of the August consumer price index data but also because of months of evidence showing hiring remains strong and inflation persistently high. Waller did not express concern that tighter financial conditions would significantly slow the US economy, since economic activity has picked up in the second half of the year, but he warned that the recent rebound in inflation is pushing consumers, investors and businesses that set prices for goods and services to raise their expectations for future inflation. He added that Fed officials' rate projections can reflect the direction of monetary policy, but future rate decisions will depend mainly on economic data.

Oil prices continued to climb on Thursday as Tehran-Washington tensions persisted following a report that the Trump administration may be considering renewed strikes on Iran. Brent crude rose to trade back near $105 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude was close to $92 a barrel. The move followed reporting by The Atlantic that said President Trump may be considering striking Iran before the midterm elections, with the Pentagon weighing options though no final decision has been made, and came amid recent increased incidents of vessel attacks near the Strait of Hormuz. A tropical storm nearing the Gulf Coast and threatening to make landfall as a hurricane by Friday prompted Chevron to evacuate nonessential personnel from its offshore platforms in the region. David Morrison, senior market analyst at Trade Nation, noted that these factors outweighed the news that the International Energy Agency was accelerating the release of stockpiles of oil and distillates. Higher energy costs are adding to expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain its tightening stance to curb inflation, with the market fully pricing in a 25 basis point rate increase in December, and the 10-year yield rising to 5.32%. Gasoline prices averaged $4.36 per gallon on Thursday per AAA data, while diesel stood at $6.28 per gallon, down $0.02 from Wednesday, and President Trump said Tuesday he is considering suspending the federal gas tax ahead of November's midterm elections.

Brown Brothers Harriman's Elias Haddad says higher oil prices are pressuring stocks and bonds while supporting a firmer dollar. The FOMC minutes showed most participants backing another rate increase by year-end, with futures fully pricing a 25 basis point hike to 4.00–4.25%.

Federal Reserve Governor Waller said on the 8th that additional rate increases will likely be needed to bring inflation down to the Fed's 2% target. However, he said there is "flexibility" in the pace of hikes, leaving open the possibility that the Fed could hold off on raising rates at the October 27-28 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee. According to the text of a speech delivered at a forum hosted by Turkey's central bank in Istanbul, Waller said, "If economic data continues to come in as expected, I expect we will need to raise rates further to return inflation to our 2% target sooner," adding, "Rate hikes do not need to be carried out at consecutive meetings, but should be done within a reasonable timeframe." His remarks echo views expressed by other Fed officials in recent days, suggesting the Fed will likely leave the federal funds rate target unchanged at its current 3.75% to 4% at the October FOMC meeting. In September, the Fed raised the federal funds rate target by 0.25 percentage point, and projections released at the same time showed most Fed officials expect another 0.25 percentage point increase by year-end. Investors currently expect the Fed to hold the federal funds rate steady at the October FOMC meeting but to raise rates at the December 8-9 FOMC meeting six weeks later.

Silver fell to the $59.00 area on Thursday, nearing two-month lows, as rising oil prices and high Treasury yields weighed on precious metals. Reports of a new wave of attacks on Saudi Arabian airports by the Iran-backed Houthis pushed Brent crude above $101.50, more than 5% above Tuesday's lows, souring market sentiment and lifting the safe-haven US Dollar. The oil rally also boosted Treasury yields, with the US 10-year yield above 5.30% and the 30-year note paying above 5.7%, a few percentage points below 24-year highs. Technically, XAG/USD is extending its reversal from late August highs above $70.00, with bulls capped below the neckline of a bearish Head & Shoulders pattern; bears now target the two-month low at $59.00, with the next target at the late July and early August lows near $56.50, while a recovery would first need to reclaim the $62.00 area.

Global stock markets are facing pressure on multiple fronts. The yield on 30-year US Treasury bonds jumped to 5.7%, the highest in 24 years, while Brent crude oil rose to $101.2 per barrel as the Middle East war drags on with uncertainty. This month has seen at least nine attacks on ships, about half the number for all of September, and the IRGC has threatened to close illegal routes. There are also reports that President Donald Trump may order strikes on Iran before the US midterm elections. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve remains hawkish: the September FOMC meeting minutes showed a unanimous 12-0 vote to raise rates by 0.25% to a range of 3.75%-4.00%, with one more hike expected before year-end to curb inflation that has stayed above target for more than five years. The core stance remains higher for longer. However, US inflation data due on October 14 could shift market views. Concerns about a yield shock feeding into funding costs are rising and increasing risks to asset quality, especially NPLs and credit costs, causing European bank stocks, which are relatively sensitive, to be sold off heavily. The STOXX Europe 600 Banks index fell 3.3% amid pressure on major banks: Societe Generale down 5.0%, Deutsche Bank down 4.7%, ABN AMRO down 4.4%, and UniCredit down 4.2%. Thailand is preparing to host the IMF-World Bank Annual Meetings from October 12-18, a key platform to showcase Thailand's potential and direction for upgrading its economic structure to policymakers, financial institutions, and global investors. Seven front-line industries represent the new growth engine: food with CBG, CPF, and ITC; modern automotive with AH, MGC, and KGEN; retail with CPALL and CRC; smart electronics and digital with DELTA and GULF; medical and wellness with BH and BDMS; tourism with AOT, CENTEL, and BEM; and creative economy with PLANB and BEC. These are sectors where Thailand has strong existing business bases and can extend into higher value-added activities. On foreign fund flows, although weightings have been reduced in several Asian markets, especially South Korea, India, Indonesia, and Taiwan, yesterday Thai fund flows began to show positive signs in both markets after heavy selling. Foreigners net bought 1.72 billion baht of Thai stocks and 6.26 billion baht of Thai bonds, a total net inflow of about 7.98 billion baht in a single day. Since the start of October, foreigners have still net sold about 7.44 billion baht of Thai stocks, but on the bond side, October has returned to net buying of 5.80 billion baht, reflecting that foreign flows are starting to show signs of selectively returning to some Thai assets. Strategically, from September 22 to October 6, 10 stocks stood out as being gradually accumulated by foreigners both directly and via NVDR: CPF, SCB, SAWAD, BH, BDMS, PTTGC, PTT, TOP, IRPC, and IVL. These fall into three themes: laggard, high season, and energy-petrochemicals. The RRG picture for most stocks is in the improving-leading zone or shows strong RS-momentum. For today's three Thai top picks, we choose BEM, which has a chance to win the contract for the southern Purple Line electric train and is poised for record annual profit in the third quarter; SCC, which benefits from the olefins business merger with PTTGC but whose share price still lags; and ITC, which benefits from the weak baht theme and is awaiting an M&A deal with companies in China and the US expected to conclude in 2026, offering further upside.

The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note pulled back to 5.286% after surging to 5.35%, its highest level since 2002, while the 30-year yield also retreated from a 24-year high to 5.666%. The pullback came after the US Treasury auctioned 39 billion dollars of 10-year notes on Wednesday, October 7. Analysts at BMO viewed the auction as strong, as bids from non-dealers came in above average. Indirect bidders, which include central banks around the world, accounted for 80.3% of the total auction, above the 72.4% average of the last 10 auctions. Direct bidders took 17.1%, slightly below the 18.3% average, while dealers took just 2.5%, far below the 9.4% average. The auction was the second of three by the US Treasury this week, following 58 billion dollars of 3-year notes on Tuesday, October 6, and a 22 billion dollar 30-year auction is due today, October 8. The bond market has faced heavy selling pressure recently on concerns over inflation and surging oil prices, with the 10-year yield up 0.60% since the end of July, while US crude oil prices have jumped 20% over the same period.

Kasikorn Research Center, or KResearch, estimates that the baht today will move within a range of 33.55 to 33.70 baht per dollar, after this morning trading at around 33.62 to 33.64 baht per dollar, compared with yesterday's market close of 33.70 baht per dollar. The baht strengthened slightly, in line with the yen's appreciation amid concerns over intervention by Japanese authorities, but it still faces depreciation pressure from the decline in global gold prices. Meanwhile, oil prices rebounded on signs of tension in the Middle East, following reports that the United States may consider striking Iran before the midterm elections, with Brent crude holding above 101 dollars per barrel. The dollar remains supported by rising US bond yields amid expectations that US interest rates will stay high and that the Fed still has room to keep raising rates in the period ahead, even if not at this month's FOMC meeting, after the Fed meeting minutes reflected that the majority agreed on the need to raise rates before year-end. Yesterday, 10-year and 30-year US bond yields hit new 24-year highs of 5.35% and 5.72% respectively. Key factors to watch include the situation in the Middle East, foreign fund flows, the direction of US bond yields, and US weekly jobless claims figures.

The minutes of the US Federal Reserve's September monetary policy meeting, published on Wednesday, October 7, showed that most Fed officials considered another interest rate increase before the end of this year to be appropriate, as inflation has remained above the Fed's 2% target for a prolonged period. At the two-day meeting that ended on September 16, the Federal Open Market Committee, or FOMC, voted unanimously 12-0 to raise short-term interest rates by 0.25% to a range of 3.75% to 4.00%, the first rate hike since July 2023. The Dot Plot report indicated that 16 of the 18 officials expected one more rate increase this year. The minutes also showed that Fed officials differed over the rationale for this rate hike, with some seeing it as a way to limit the impact of the energy price crisis and others viewing it as a move to curb demand-driven inflation, while stressing that future decisions will depend on incoming data and their effect on the economic outlook and the balance of risks. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said at a press conference that inflation is too high and has persisted for too long, emphasizing the importance of restoring price stability to drive US economic growth.

Land and Houses Securities Public Company Limited assesses that the SET Index today is likely to soften and move within a range of 1,570-1,590 points, as the Thai stock market still lacks fresh positive factors. Most recently, the SET Index closed up 2.41 points, supported by energy and petrochemical stocks. Foreign investors were net buyers of 1.718 billion baht, and institutions were net buyers of 17 million baht. Securities company accounts were net sellers of 1.112 billion baht, and retail investors were net sellers of 624 million baht. The main pressure came from the yield on 10-year US government bonds, which surged to 5.36%, the highest in 24 years, before easing to 5.29% after a 39 billion dollar bond auction drew strong demand. Meanwhile, Brent crude oil prices remained above 100 dollars per barrel, and the September FOMC meeting minutes reflected that most committee members still saw one more rate hike this year as possibly appropriate. On investment strategy, Land and Houses Securities maintains its investment weighting at 70%, split into 55% Alpha and 15% Beta, and highlights BGRIM as a strategic top pick with a target price of 21.50 baht, support at 18.80 baht, resistance at 20 baht, and a stop-loss at 18.20 baht, driven by progress on PDP2026, Direct PPA, and its Data Center business, which currently has total generating capacity of 96 MW and is fully contracted, with plans to expand to 300 MW in Thailand and abroad, expecting new generating capacity of around 300-500 MW. It also recommends buying HMPRO with a strategic target price of 7.30 baht, support at 6.40 baht, resistance at 6.85 baht, and a stop-loss at 6.20 baht, driven by demand for home repairs and renovations after the flood situation eases, which should support sales in early the fourth quarter of 2026.

YLG Bullion International Co., Ltd. released its gold price trend analysis report for October 8, 2026, stating that gold closed down $53.20, its lowest level since August 5, after the dollar strengthened 0.4% and the 10-year US Treasury yield held near its highest level in more than 20 years. The report noted that yesterday prices fell below the $4,125-$4,104 range, turning the overall outlook bearish once again, and that if a rebound fails to break through $4,184, the correction may not be over. It recommended opening short positions if prices fail to rise past $4,140-$4,184, and buying back shorts if prices do not fall below $4,088-$4,066. Key factors also include remarks by Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid, who said further rate hikes may be needed to control inflation, while San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly indicated that the rate path depends on inflation pressures. Meanwhile, China's central bank continued buying gold, adding 740,000 ounces, or about 23 tonnes, in September, up from 650,000 ounces in August, bringing its gold reserves to 77.47 million ounces and marking a 23rd consecutive month of purchases.

CGS International Securities (Thailand), or CGSI, expects the SET Index to be volatile and advises caution over a correction in line with global risk assets, seeing a trading range of 1,570-1,590 points after US government bond yields rose again, stoking investor concern over inflation, interest burdens and financing costs that may stay elevated for a long time. On Wednesday, October 7, the Dow Jones closed at 51,179.87 points, down 341.41 points or 0.66%, while the S&P500 closed at 7,801.77 points, down 17.16 points or 0.22%, and the Nasdaq closed at 27,538.69 points, down 61.20 points or 0.22%. Europe's STOXX 600 closed at 630.25 points, down 6.38 points or 1.00%. This morning, Japan's Nikkei opened lower and fell below the 70,000 level. Among its recommended stocks, CGSI named SPALI, expecting third-quarter 2026 net profit of 911.8 million baht, down 44.6% QoQ and 21.9% YoY, while maintaining its 2026 residential business revenue forecast at 24.85 billion baht, up 4.8% YoY, and GULF, which it expects to see renewable energy projects, data centers and the MTP3 LNG Terminal drive long-term profit growth after 2030.

The baht opened this morning at 33.64 baht per dollar, strengthening from yesterday's close of 33.72 baht per dollar, according to the Money Market and International Transactions Business Division of TMBThanachart, or ttb. The dollar strengthened against major currencies after the yield on 10-year US government bonds surged to 5.350%, the highest level since 2002, supported by expectations that the Fed will raise interest rates again this year. The minutes of the Fed's September meeting showed that committee members were divided on the reasons for a 0.25% rate hike, with some seeing it as a way to limit the impact of the energy price crisis, while others viewed it as a move to curb demand-driven inflation. Meanwhile, the CME Group's FedWatch Tool indicated that investors priced in only a 17.2% chance of a rate hike at the October meeting, down from 37.6% a week earlier, but assigned an 85% probability to a hike at the December meeting. As for foreign investors' portfolio positions, yesterday they were net buyers of 1.72 billion baht of Thai stocks and net buyers of 6.267 billion baht of Thai bonds.

Kasikorn Securities assesses that the minutes of the US Federal Open Market Committee, or FOMC, reflect officials' stance of still leaving the door open to one more rate hike by the end of the year, after the US economy remained strong and inflation stayed elevated. The minutes stated that all 19 officials supported a 0.25% rate increase to a range of 3.75–4.00% in September, while most officials saw a possible need for one more rate hike by year-end. However, the market has cut the probability of a rate hike at the October meeting to about 20% after some officials signalled they wanted to wait for more economic data. The US Consumer Price Index, or CPI, due on October 14 will be a key data point the market is watching to gauge the direction of monetary policy going forward. For the Thai stock market, Kasikorn Securities sees the issue as likely to have a slightly negative effect on the SET through pressure from bond yields and capital outflows, with high-valuation growth stocks as well as the finance sector carrying more risk than the broader market, while export stocks may get some support from the weaker baht.

The U.S. dollar strengthened against major currencies in trading at the New York foreign exchange market after U.S. Treasury yields surged to their highest levels in decades, supported by expectations that the Fed will raise interest rates again this year. The dollar index rose 0.4% to 102.242, while the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note jumped to 5.350%, the highest level since 2002. The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond climbed to 5.724%, a 24-year high, and the 2-year Treasury yield rose to 4.818%. Concerns over supply disruptions from the war with Iran pushed oil prices higher, reviving inflation worries and increasing the odds that central banks will extend their rate-hiking cycles, which triggered a global bond selloff. The minutes of the Fed's September meeting showed that officials were divided over the rationale for a 0.25% rate increase. The CME Group's FedWatch Tool indicated that investors priced in only a 17.2% chance of a Fed rate hike at the October meeting, down from 37.6% a week earlier, but assigned an 85% probability to a Fed rate hike at the December meeting.

Foreign investors pulled a net $26.3 billion from emerging market bonds and equities in September, according to a report published by the Institute of International Finance on the 7th. It was the first month of net outflows since June, driven by rising U.S. Treasury yields and a stronger dollar amid the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance. Of that total, non-resident outflows from emerging market bond markets came to $7 billion, the first net outflow since March, when escalating conflict in the Middle East rattled global markets. Emerging markets came under pressure in September after the Fed, led by Chair Warsh, decided on its first rate hike since 2023 and signaled that inflation remained a continuing concern. Meanwhile, heavy overseas selling of South Korean stocks helped push September outflows from emerging market equities to $19.2 billion. The IIF noted that foreign investors' selling of South Korean shares has continued almost without interruption since the start of the year, peaking in September after the KOSPI rose 62 percent year to date.