Thailand

Krungsri Securities said the Social Security Board approved a gradual increase in the wage ceiling for insured persons under Section 33, from 15,000 baht to 17,500 baht in 2026, 20,000 baht in 2029, and 23,000 baht in 2032. The research team estimates that raising the wage ceiling from 15,000 baht to 17,500 baht during 2026-28 will increase the contribution base by 16.7% and generate additional revenue for the fund of about 3,825 baht per insured person per year. Considering only the four-case fund, which directly supports health benefits, it will add revenue of approximately 1,350 baht per insured person per year. Based on a sensitivity analysis assuming a roughly 10% increase in social security medical treatment fees for capitation, IPD treatment, and chronic disease risk burden, similar to the most recent adjustment on May 1, 2023, it is estimated to add a burden to the fund of about 301 baht per insured person per year, or 22% of the incremental revenue of the four-case fund. This reflects that the fund's increased revenue exceeds the higher treatment burden and increases the likelihood of future adjustments to medical treatment rates, which would be an upside for BCH and CHG. On October 19, 2026, the ad hoc subcommittee to review the criteria and rates for medical service payments to contracted hospitals in the social security system will meet to finalize the proposal to adjust social security medical treatment fees after three meetings. It will then propose to the Medical Board and the Social Security Board. The research team assesses the impact on the 2027 earnings forecasts of BCH and CHG under two scenarios. In the first scenario, only the capitation rate is raised by 10%, with an assumed incremental margin of 80%, which would increase 2027 earnings of BCH and CHG by about 11% and 9%, respectively, with additional value from the target price of BCH of about 0.60-0.70 baht and CHG of about 0.10-0.15 baht. In the second scenario, all three items are raised by 10%, with an assumed incremental margin of 70%, which would increase earnings of BCH and CHG by about 13% and 11%, respectively, with additional value from the target price of BCH of about 0.80-1.00 baht and CHG of about 0.15-0.20 baht. The research team maintains a bullish view on the hospital sector, with top picks BDMS (Buy, target price 25 baht) and PR9 (Buy, target price 24 baht), while BCH (Buy, target price 12 baht) stands out in the social security hospital group due to earnings having passed the trough and a high chance of benefiting from the increase in social security medical treatment rates.

Dell Technologies has extended one of the most notable large-cap tech rallies, closing at $578.96 on October 7 and rising almost 360% in 2026, far outpacing the broader S&P 500. The company delivered a record-breaking second quarter for fiscal 2027, with topline revenue jumping 58% year-over-year to $47 billion as AI-optimized server revenue doubled to $16.4 billion. Over the trailing twelve months Dell has generated $151.2 billion in cumulative revenue, though its roughly 9.4% operating margin and 7.52% net margin remain well below typical software or chip peers. In September the company's investment-grade bond sale was massively oversubscribed, upsized from an initial $4 billion target to $5 billion amid strong demand tied to its AI server business. Institutional sentiment remains strong, with 77 hedge funds holding positions at the end of Q2 2026 versus 72 in Q1 2026, and BlackRock the largest stakeholder at 24.09 million shares as of June 30. The stock trades at a trailing price-to-earnings multiple of 31.99x, dropping to 21.32x on forward earnings, leaving less room for disappointment after the big run.

Alphabet Inc. has launched a prototype Tensor Processing Unit satellite aboard SpaceX's Transporter-18 mission on October 1, 2026, in partnership with Planet, marking its first concrete step toward putting data centers in orbit. The test, part of Google's Project Suncatcher, will examine how its TPUs handle launch stress, radiation, and extreme temperatures in low Earth orbit, with ground testing already showing Trillium TPUs can withstand radiation levels higher than those expected across a five-year mission. Heat management remains a key challenge because conventional air cooling does not work in a vacuum, prompting Google to evaluate heat pipes and radiators, and a two-satellite test is planned for 2027. Google emphasized the current mission is intended to collect engineering data rather than demonstrate a commercial system. SpaceX could benefit from additional orbital AI experiments if hyperscalers continue choosing its launch services, even as its valuation of over $2 trillion at about 45 times forward sales rests on management's own targets, including Elon Musk's expectation of a $100 billion annual revenue run rate by December and a $1 trillion revenue target moved up to 2030.

Yuanta Securities estimates that the airline group's profit in the third quarter of 2026 will fall 68% year on year, but will swing back to a positive 1.7 billion baht from a loss of 560 million baht in the second quarter of 2026, driven by THAI and BA, while AAV's loss narrowed. The fourth quarter of 2026 is a high season, but if oil prices rebound sharply on a quarter-on-quarter basis, it could pressure the group's profitability. The research team expects the group's profit in 2027 to recover year on year, supported by fleet efficiency gains and revenue per passenger that bolster profitability, and sees the airline group's long-term growth led by improved profitability from a tourism structure shifting toward value over volume and more consistent fuel hedging, alongside airport expansion and aviation hub goals. It therefore maintains a neutral weighting on the airline group, recommending a buy on THAI given the continued improvement in operating trends in the second half of 2026 and in 2027, while valuation is attractive on a higher ROE than the group, a strong financial position, and clear long-term growth from aggressive fleet expansion. It also recommends accumulating BA on dips to speculate on third-quarter 2026 earnings, which are expected to recover well quarter on quarter on the arrival of the Samui high season, with an average dividend yield of 6-7% per year expected to help limit downside.

Deputy Prime Minister and Transport Minister Phiphat Ratchakitprakarn revealed that the government is preparing to move ahead with a common ticketing system for Bangkok and its vicinity's electric rail network, targeting implementation by January 1, 2027. The core features are a 17-baht entry fee and a maximum fare of no more than 45 baht per trip, with no repeat entry fee even when transferring between multiple rail lines. The Mass Rapid Transit Authority of Thailand, or MRTA, will manage the central system, which will also support EMV payment, with Krungthai Bank handling the back-end system and fare calculations between each operator. The priority is the Green Line, which currently uses the Rabbit card, and the Transport Ministry is in discussions on how to connect it to the EMV system in time for January 1, 2027, because the Green Line is the main axis linking to other key rail lines, including the Purple Line, the Blue Line, and routes to be opened in the future. On buses, Bangkok Mass Transit Authority, or BMTA, will receive 1,520 electric buses in 2027 between March and May and another 800 in late December, totaling 2,320 for the year, with a goal of converting all BMTA buses to electric by the end of 2027. The new electric bus fleet will be fully air-conditioned, with space for wheelchair users and ramps, a 50% fare discount for the elderly, a 50% discount for school and university students, and free fares for children under seven. The ministry is also preparing to adjust bus routes to serve as feeders, carrying passengers from communities and main roads to rail stations. For integrating water, road, and rail travel into a single system, Smart Pier aims to complete development of 16 of 29 piers by the fourth quarter of 2027, and any pier that is ready earlier can connect to the common ticket system immediately. Saen Saep Canal boats will also be brought into the system. On safety, the State Railway of Thailand, or SRT, plans to gradually fix railway-road crossings in inner Bangkok, targeting completion within six years and no more than ten years at most. For freight transport, the ministry envisions rail as the main axis in the future, with trucks serving as feeders for distances of no more than 150 kilometers from factories or industrial estates to railway stations, linking the northern, northeastern, central, and southern routes through to Malaysia and Singapore.

Gulf Development Public Company Limited, or GULF, has announced the final coupon rates for six tranches of bonds and digital bonds with maturities of 3 to 10 years, at 1.83% to 3.00% per year, with a total face value of not more than 20 billion baht. Subscription will open from 19 to 21 October 2026 through eight leading financial institutions and the Paotang application. All six tranches received a credit rating of AA- with a Stable outlook from TRIS Rating on 24 August 2026. As for the coupon rate of each tranche: tranche 1, a 3-year bond, is a zero coupon bond with a discount rate of 1.83% per year; tranche 2, a 4-year bond, carries a fixed coupon of 2.10% per year; tranche 3, a 5-year bond, carries a fixed coupon of 2.33% per year; tranche 4, a 7-year digital bond, carries a fixed coupon of 2.80% per year; tranche 5, a 7-year bond, carries a fixed coupon of 2.80% per year; and tranche 6, a 10-year bond, carries a fixed coupon of 3.00% per year. Interest is paid every six months throughout the life of the bonds, except for the 3-year bond. Miss Yupapin Wangwiwat, Chief Financial Officer of GULF, said the company had once again succeeded in bookbuilding, with demand reaching as high as 3.3 times the value of the bonds allocated to institutional investors and/or high-net-worth investors, and that the proceeds from this fundraising will be used to repay bonds due for redemption as well as to support expansion of investment in renewable energy and digital infrastructure businesses such as data centers, cloud and AI. In the second quarter of 2026, GULF posted a record core profit of 12.332 billion baht, up 74% from the same period a year earlier, with total revenue of 50.294 billion baht, up 24% from the same period a year earlier.

Goldman Sachs and other Wall Street firms upgraded their views on Palantir Technologies in early October 2026, citing accelerating demand for sovereign AI, bespoke applications, and its verticalized AI platforms across government and commercial customers. At the same time, Palantir and Armada announced a partnership to deliver sovereign AI on modular data centers manufactured in the U.S. and allied nations, reinforcing Palantir's pitch that customers can keep models, data, and infrastructure entirely within their own security perimeter. Palantir's narrative projects $23.0 billion revenue and $10.2 billion earnings by 2029, requiring 55.2% yearly revenue growth and about a $7.2 billion earnings increase from $3.0 billion today, and yields a $195.57 fair value, a 6% downside to its current price. By contrast, the most bearish analysts assumed revenue of about US$17.9 billion and earnings of roughly US$6.4 billion by 2029, with slower margin expansion and higher competitive pressure potentially muting the impact of deals like the Armada sovereign AI stack.

SEAOIL Public Company Limited, or SEAOIL, informed the Stock Exchange of Thailand that Pan Orient Energy (Siam) Limited, or POES, has been approved for petroleum exploration and production rights in onshore exploration block L8/66, following a Cabinet resolution on September 15, 2026. The block covers an area of approximately 3,957.41 square kilometers. The approval came after the Department of Mineral Fuels, Ministry of Energy, submitted the matter to the Cabinet for consideration of rights from the 25th petroleum concession bidding round. The next step will be the signing of the petroleum concession agreement, before POES can begin exploration operations. SEAOIL holds a 49.99% stake in onshore concession block L53/48, and stated that its participation in the bidding and the award of concession rights this time is part of the strategy and business plan that POES has prepared, with the company having provided continuous support. Once the concession agreement is signed, SEAOIL will report further progress to the Stock Exchange of Thailand.

Asset World Corp Public Company Limited, or AWC, has announced a partnership with seven leading Thai financial institutions, namely Siam Commercial Bank, Kasikornbank, Bangkok Bank, Krungthai Bank, Bank of Ayudhya, and TMBThanachart Bank, as well as Bank of America Securities, to prepare for the offering of trust units of AWR – AWC Lifestyle Property Real Estate Investment Trust, or AWR REIT. The trust aims to be Thailand's largest freehold real estate investment trust, with an initial investment value of not more than 51,388 million baht, drawn from five landmark assets in Bangkok, Samui, Krabi, and Pattaya: The Empire, Banyan Tree Koh Samui Hotel, Banyan Tree Krabi, Meliá Koh Samui, and Pattaya Marriott Resort and Spa. AWR REIT also holds a Right of First Refusal, or ROFR, covering nine high-potential assets that AWC has initially selected, along with opportunities to expand investment through another 48 projects in AWC's current portfolio. On governance structure, AWR REIT will have more than 60% independent directors, jointly appointed by the trustee, and will set management fees linked to growth in distribution per unit, or DPU Growth. Asset World Corp REIT Company Limited has already filed the trust unit offering registration statement and draft prospectus, or Filing, with the Securities and Exchange Commission on September 29, 2026.

Tower Semiconductor and NewPhotonics announced high-volume shipments of laser-integrated, serviceable optical engine photonic integrated circuits developed for next-generation AI infrastructure interconnect. The products are built on Tower's PH18DA silicon photonics platform, which uses heterogeneously integrated indium phosphide components to place semiconductor optical amplifiers, modulators, lasers, and photodetectors on a single chip, and the companies say the integration reduces complexity and manufacturing variability while improving yield, reliability and time to market. Volume production today covers data rates from 800G to 1.6T, with 6.4T solutions planned for future volume manufacturing to serve both scale-out and scale-up architectures, and shipment of the 6.4T NPC505 chipsets is anticipated during the first half of 2027. NewPhotonics is the first player across the market to scale up production on Tower's PH18DA InP-on-silicon photonics platform, and Tower faces execution risks in scaling alongside it, along with competition from alternative architectures and other silicon photonics foundries. Tower's stock has rallied 99.97% in 2026, lifting its market capitalization to $25.85 billion, with an operating margin of 19.63%, a net margin of 16.94%, a trailing price-to-earnings ratio of 91.11x, a forward P/E of 38.46x and a return on equity of 9.98%.

Gulf Labs has announced a strategic partnership with Injective, a blockchain developed specifically to support financial services, and has officially begun operating as an Institutional Validator on the Injective network to lay the infrastructure for an onchain financial system for institutional players in Thailand and to extend growth opportunities across Asia. The two parties will jointly study development in several areas, including tokenization, stablecoins, expanding channels to reach users at the national level, education and events, as well as data centers and infrastructure for AI. Gulf Labs will connect Injective with the business ecosystem of the GULF group, which covers energy, telecommunications, banking, digital assets, cloud services, and data centers. The GULF group currently has a market capitalization of approximately 27 billion US dollars, an energy business portfolio with total installed generating capacity of more than 24 gigawatts, and a telecommunications business serving more than 46 million mobile subscribers. This partnership builds on Injective's Asia strategy after its operations in South Korea and Japan. In South Korea, POSCO International and LG CNS selected Injective for a tokenization pilot project for trade receivables, while Four Pillars launched an Institutional Validator on Injective. In Thailand, there is M-INJ, an Injective fund management strategy by Merkle Capital that invests in INJ and stablecoins such as USDC. Gulf Labs may also partner with Binance TH through Binance TH Academy to organize roadshows, university network programs, and campaigns within the digital asset trading platform. The details and direction of the partnership are still to be determined.

Shares of Hana Microelectronics Public Company Limited, or HANA, rose 1.95% to 52.25 baht on trading value of 513.69 million baht, after Krungsri Securities Public Company Limited estimated that normal profit for the third quarter of 2026 will come in at about 317 million baht, up 733% from the same period a year earlier. It expects third-quarter 2026 revenue to grow about 10% from the previous quarter, accelerating from growth of 9% in the second quarter of 2026 and 2% in the first quarter of 2026, driven by the IC business and a recovery in demand in the PCBA business. The gross margin is expected to rise to 11.2% from 10.7% in the second quarter of 2026 and 6% in the third quarter of 2025, even though SG&A expenses are expected to increase 25% from the same period a year earlier. If it comes in as expected, normal profit for the first nine months of 2026 will account for about 62% of the full-year profit forecast. Krungsri Securities maintains its 2026 normal profit forecast at 995 million baht, up 24% from a year earlier, and expects profit to accelerate by another 44% in 2027. It also maintains its Buy recommendation with a target price of 64.60 baht, based on a 2027 P/E of 40 times.

Yuanta Securities (Thailand) has maintained its Buy rating on BANPU with a target price of 19.00 baht after BKV Corporation, a subsidiary roughly 63% held by BANPU, signed an agreement to purchase power generation equipment for a natural gas-fired power plant worth 800 million US dollars, supporting 1.2 GW of capacity in the state of Texas. Deliveries will be phased in from September 2028 to support power sales contract negotiations with hyperscaler customers, which are expected to become clear by March 2027. The project carries low risk because of a backstop agreement under which hyperscaler customers would reimburse up to 90% of the equipment payment if the deal does not materialize. The 1.2 GW of capacity represents 80% of the Temple I & II power plants and is an incremental addition not yet included in estimates. It is assessed as an upside to 2028-2029 earnings of about 4-6% and adds roughly 0.80-1.40 baht per share to the target price. Overall, the second half of 2026 is supported by seasonal factors and additional investment in the Barnett gas field in the United States, while 2027 earnings are expected to grow more strongly than the energy sector, with coal prices likely to remain elevated on the back of El Nino and long-term gas demand from the data center trend. The research team notes that valuation is not expensive, trading at a PBV of only 0.5 times, and expects dividend yields in 2026-2027 of as much as 5.4-5.6% per year.

Jefferies named Alibaba Group Holding its top pick in the China Internet sector, maintaining a Buy rating and raising its price target on the U.S.-listed shares to $192 from $190, with the Hong Kong-listed target moving to HK$186 from HK$184. The firm cited solid execution across multiple business segments and accelerating growth in artificial intelligence cloud services. Jefferies expects AI Cloud and Compute services revenue to grow over 50% year-over-year to RMB60.5 billion in the September quarter, with segment margin improving quarter-over-quarter to 12.3%, and forecasts cloud revenue to grow over 50% year-over-year in fiscal year 2028. Total revenue is estimated to grow 9.6% year-over-year, while cloud segment profit is expected to offset losses in AI Lab and Applications in the December quarter. On ecommerce, the gap between gross and net China marketplace revenue is narrowing and Quick Commerce losses are lower in September than in the June quarter.

Bualuang Securities said that although PLANB shares have already risen 15% within five days of its recommendation change on October 2, the iCare story still has room to run, because it has begun quantifying the upside from expanding sales channels and raising the attach rate for insurance. The mobile device insurance business in particular is the first area where the benefits shared among PLANB, iCare and COM7 are clearest. Based on COM7's smartphone sales base, it estimates that if PLANB helps iCare reach an additional customer base equivalent to COM7's existing base, the addressable market could rise to about 50% of the iPhone market and 40% of the Android market. iCare is expected to generate about 450 million baht in mobile insurance revenue in 2026. If the customer base grows as assumed, that would add roughly another 450 million baht in revenue, and if PLANB helps lift the attach rate by another 5%, that would add about 130 million baht more, bringing the total revenue opportunity to roughly 580 million baht a year once fully recognised. With iCare's net profit margin of about 40%, that incremental revenue would generate about 230 million baht in profit for iCare, and combining PLANB's direct stake with its holding through COM7, its economic interest would be about 51%, equivalent to roughly 120 million baht a year in additional profit for PLANB once fully recognised. If 50% is recognised in 2027 and the full amount in 2028, that would add about 3.5% and 6.4% respectively to profit forecasts. Using the same 2027 PER of 25 times, the target price could move from 9.30 baht to about 9.70 baht, representing roughly 4-5% additional upside. This assessment also covers only mobile insurance, excluding auto insurance, lending, corporate channels, the public and private sectors, or other products, so there is still further upside if these materialise. However, the target price in this report remains unchanged at 9.30 baht for now, with a Buy recommendation.

Bualuang Securities said the impact of flooding on CBG is only a short-term disruption and does not change the core growth picture. The key driver remains the increase in domestic energy drink market share, with CBG targeting 10% YoY sales growth in 2027, compared with the market's expected growth of only about 3% and the broker's estimate of 7%. Market share is expected to rise from 27% at the end of 2025 to 30% at the end of 2026 and 32% at the end of 2027, while the main selling price of 10 baht remains a competitive strength. The 2027 profit base will be more diversified, coming from Myanmar, the distribution business, and OEM. Production capacity in Myanmar is set to increase from about 400,000 cases per month in the first half of 2026 to 800,000 cases per month in the second half of 2026, while the distribution business, which accounts for about 45% of sales, is still growing more than 20% YoY. LOVEZA aims to raise output from 40 million cans in 2026 to 100 million cans in 2027, which is expected to lift OEM revenue from 250 million baht to 540 million baht. The Bang Pakong plant was not directly affected by the flooding, so the main risks lie in transportation and the deferral of revenue recognition between the third and fourth quarters of 2026. The broker has revised its assumption for domestic energy drink sales in the third quarter of 2026 down to 5% YoY growth from 10% previously, and expects profit of 710 million baht, up 15% YoY but down 3% QoQ, below its previous estimate of 750 million baht and below the market. It estimates the flooding impact on 2026 profit at about 5%, but still expects core profit in 2027 to grow 15% YoY. It maintains its Buy recommendation but has cut its target price to 63 baht.

Asia Plus Securities has upgraded its recommendation on TASCO shares to "speculative buy" from "sell" and raised its fair value to 17.70 baht from 16.00 baht, reflecting stronger profit prospects from elevated asphalt prices. The research team expects TASCO's third-quarter 2026 results to show a net profit of 400 million baht, up 123% from the same period a year earlier but down 5% from the previous quarter, driven by a recovery in the asphalt business after the company managed to import crude from Venezuela in two shipments in August, adding feedstock to support exports and offsetting the seasonal softening of the domestic market. Total asphalt sales volume is expected at 290,000 tonnes, up 17% quarter on quarter, while the average selling price rose 8% quarter on quarter in line with Singapore asphalt market prices, which are being supported by tight regional supply. Although revenue is growing strongly, margins in the third quarter of 2026 remain under pressure from hedging losses on light oil products as well as additional provisions for doubtful debts from the construction business. However, the research team expects the fourth quarter of 2026 to be the best quarter of the year, thanks to the full-quarter recognition of the positive impact of sharply accelerating asphalt prices since September, while pressure from hedging losses on old light oil sales contracts made since the start of the year gradually eases after most of the impact was recognised in the third quarter of 2026. As a result, the research team raised its 2026 and 2027 profit forecasts by 24% and 3% respectively on the assumption of higher-than-expected asphalt prices, with the Argus Asphalt price recently reaching 800 US dollars per tonne, reflecting a supply deficit that continues to underpin the global asphalt market. Nevertheless, the research team remains cautious about the medium-term profit outlook, since current asphalt prices are still being driven by tight supply, which could gradually ease if the Middle East situation relaxes, while crude procurement from Venezuela is still done through traders, making costs higher than buying directly from PDVSA as in the past.

Krungsri Securities said in a research note that power plant stocks GPSC, GULF and BGRIM have regained investor attention on rising electricity demand from data centers, artificial intelligence and the chip industry, setting 2027 target prices of 61 baht, 77 baht and 23 baht respectively and recommending a buy on all three. GPSC, or Global Power Synergy Public Company Limited, has drawn interest from the draft national power development plan, or PDP2026, which may allow existing power plants to extend their power purchase agreements by another seven years. GULF, or Gulf Development Public Company Limited, stands to benefit from direct power purchase agreements, or Direct PPAs, from data center, AI and chip businesses, with estimated power demand of around 2,000 to 3,000 megawatts. That figure reflects an assessment of the market opportunity, not the total capacity for which GULF has already secured contracts. BGRIM, or B.Grimm Power Public Company Limited, has raised its power generation target for the data center business to 500 megawatts by 2030 from 300 megawatts previously. Krungsri expects BGRIM's normalized profit to grow 22% in 2027 and 17% in 2028, helped by lower natural gas costs amid an oversupply of LNG and the gradual commercial start-up of new projects, namely the Nakwol 1 wind power plant in South Korea and a data center project in Thailand. Investors, however, still need to watch for clarity on energy policy and related regulations, as well as fuel cost trends and the investment burden of each company.

Krungsri Securities has raised its target for BGRIM's Data Center business capacity to 500 megawatts by 2030, up from 300 megawatts previously, viewing it as a positive factor for investment confidence. It maintains a Buy recommendation and a 2027 target price of 23 baht, based on a sum-of-the-parts valuation. It expects normal profit in 2027 and 2028 to grow 22% and 17% respectively, driven by lower natural gas costs amid an LNG supply glut and the gradual commercial start-up of new projects, namely the Nakwol 1 wind power plant in South Korea and a Data Center project in Thailand. However, the research team has not included large pipeline projects in its estimates, namely the 184 MWe Nakwol 2 wind power plant, a 735 MWe IPP power plant in Malaysia, and a 411 MWe battery energy storage system project in Italy, since developing these projects simultaneously could require substantial investment. Meanwhile, the interest-bearing debt-to-equity ratio stands at 2.2 times, compared with a loan covenant limit of no more than 3.0 times. BGRIM shares traded intraday at 19.20 baht, up 0.30 baht or 1.59%.

KGI Securities (Thailand) said in an analysis that it expects NEO to report third-quarter 2026 net profit of 234 million baht, up 298% year on year and 12% quarter on quarter. The strong year-on-year growth is expected to be driven by higher sales, better gross margin and a lower SG&A-to-sales ratio, while the quarter-on-quarter growth is expected to be driven by higher sales and a lower SG&A-to-sales ratio as well. If profit meets expectations, first-nine-month 2026 profit will be 538 million baht, up 36% year on year, accounting for 83% of analysts' full-year profit estimate. NEO's third-quarter 2026 sales are estimated to be a record high, growing 21% year on year and 4% quarter on quarter to 3.2 billion baht, driven by full-quarter recognition of the positive impact of the government's Thai Chai Thai Plus scheme, the success of new product development and the relaunch of existing products, as well as a price increase of about 4-5% from July 2026 onward. GPM in the third quarter of 2026 is expected to improve to 38.2%, up 1.2 points year on year but down 0.2 points quarter on quarter, on a more appropriate product mix. The SG&A-to-sales ratio is expected to fall to 28.5%, down 5.2 points year on year and 0.9 points quarter on quarter, mainly due to lower expenses related to NPD, as the company launched 35 SKUs of new products in the third quarter of 2026, compared with 97 SKUs in the third quarter of 2025 and 46 SKUs in the second quarter of 2026. Analysts maintain their 2026 profit estimate at 648 million baht, up 15% year on year, and their 2027 estimate at 729 million baht, up 13% year on year. They see fourth-quarter 2026 sales growing year on year on the remaining period of the co-payment scheme, but likely slowing quarter on quarter from the high third-quarter base and weaker demand due to the impact of flooding. In terms of GPM, it may fall quarter on quarter from full-quarter recognition of depreciation from the new factory. Overall, fourth-quarter 2026 profit is expected to decline both year on year and quarter on quarter. The analyst gives a 2027 target price of 26.70 baht, based on the previous PE of 11 times. The share price has already risen about 14% in the past four weeks, reflecting that the market has largely priced in the expected strong third-quarter 2026 results, leaving limited upside to the target price. The investment recommendation on NEO is therefore downgraded to only "hold" from "buy."

Several brokers estimate the third-quarter 2026 net profit of PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, or PTTEP, in a range of 17,700 to 20,700 million baht, an increase of 39 to 63% year on year, driven by higher gas selling prices following the retroactive adjustment of PSC contracts, even though profit slowed from the previous quarter due to losses on oil price hedging and maintenance shutdowns at gas separation plants. Land and Houses Securities expects net profit of 20,700 million baht, down 24% from the previous quarter but up 63% year on year, and expects normal profit of 23,200 million baht, while maintaining a buy recommendation and viewing a dividend yield of about 6% as still attractive. InnovestX Securities expects net profit of 18,600 million baht, up 47% year on year, normal profit of 21,100 million baht, and gives the highest target price in the group at 185 baht with an OUTPERFORM recommendation, estimating a dividend yield of about 7%. Bualuang Securities expects core profit of 23,236 million baht, up 91% year on year and 7% above its previous estimate, on higher gas selling prices after the retroactive PSC contract adjustment for Block A18, and expects net profit of 20,698 million baht, up 63% year on year. Bualuang also said the average Dubai oil price stood at 93 US dollars per barrel in the third quarter of 2026 after touching 105 US dollars per barrel in the second quarter, and that supply-side risks may keep oil prices elevated through the fourth quarter of 2026.

Power plant stocks rose prominently this morning, with GPSC jumping 4.62%, up 2.25 baht to 51.00 baht, on trading value of 578.88 million baht, buoyed by progress on revising data center criteria, as the Data Center board gradually finalizes the approval and regulatory framework for new data center investment within a one-month timeframe, with a conclusion expected no later than October 15. Meanwhile, agencies that must amend related laws are scheduled to present proposals to the Cabinet within October 2026, a positive sentiment for the power plant sector, especially companies with strong capital bases such as GULF and GPSC. Short-term support also comes from the baht strengthening to 33.55 baht per dollar from 33.73 baht per dollar yesterday, and short-term US government bond yields falling 5 bps to 5.227%. Krungsri Securities recommends focusing on GULF, GPSC and BGRIM with 2027 target prices of 77.00 baht, 61.00 baht and 23.00 baht respectively. Asia Plus Securities noted that GPSC targets new generating capacity of about 5,000 MW from the power plant procurement round under Thailand's PDP2026 plan, and plans to list its AEPL project in India on the Indian stock market in 2028, while seeking M&A in Laos, targeting new projects that yield more than 8-10% returns, and plans initial data center investment of about 50-100MW in both Thailand and India.